Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Deberías Ver Este Gráfico Que Muestra Que Otra Temporada de Altcoins Está a Punto de Comenzar

bitcoinist2026-02-27 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-02-27 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

L'analista CyrilXBT ha compartit un gràfic clau que mostra que la relació entre la capitalització de mercat total de les altcoins (excloent les 10 majors criptomonedes) i Bitcoin ha tornat a la zona d'accumulació històrica de 0,129. Aquest nivell ha marcat l'inici de totes les temporades d'altcoins importants en la història, incloent les de 2017-2018 i 2021. L'analista assenyala que el mercat s'ha restablert completament després de la correcció de 2022-2024 i que les condicions actuals, amb el BTC.D en mínims anuals, són similars a les que van precedir les grans rallies alts. Si es repeteixen les tendències històriques, el proper objectiu per a aquest cicle podria ser una relació de 0,80 a 0,90, la qual cosa indicaria una forta temporada d'altcoins.

Las conversaciones sobre una posible temporada de altcoins en este ciclo han disminuido en comparación con años anteriores, a pesar de la reciente caída en el precio de Bitcoin (BTC) y su dominio. En particular, un analista de criptomonedas ha compartido un nuevo gráfico a largo plazo que muestra la capitalización total del mercado de altcoins en relación con Bitcoin en un nivel que históricamente ha precedido a las principales temporadas de altcoins. Según su análisis, el mercado de altcoins se ha reiniciado por completo y podría estar preparándose para una nueva temporada de altcoins si las tendencias históricas se desarrollan como se espera.

Se Forma una Configuración Histórica para la Temporada de Altcoins Mientras la Proporción de Bitcoin Alcanza la Zona Base

En un análisis reciente en X, el experto en mercados @CyrilXBT compartió un gráfico mensual que rastrea la proporción del mercado total de criptomonedas, excluyendo los 10 principales activos, con respecto a Bitcoin. Según el análisis, el gráfico se sitúa actualmente en aproximadamente 0.129, un nivel que el analista describe como la misma zona base o de acumulación que ha lanzado cada temporada importante de altcoins en la historia de las criptomonedas.

@CyrilXBT señaló que esta zona es donde nacen todas las temporadas de altcoins, y cada repunte de altcoins pasado comenzó cuando la proporción dejó de caer y se estabilizó alrededor del rango de $0.12 a $0.13. Al observar el gráfico, el analista notó que durante el ciclo 2015-2016, la proporción comienza cerca de cero y permanece plana, con una mínima volatilidad. Después de esto, ocurrió un aumento dramático durante el repunte alcista de 2017-2018, impulsando la proporción de altcoins frente a Bitcoin por encima de 0.3, marcando una de las primeras grandes temporadas de altcoins.

Para 2020, la proporción cayó nuevamente por debajo del nivel 0.129, borrando la mayor parte de sus ganancias anteriores mientras se consolidaba cerca de la zona de acumulación/base de rango bajo. Notablemente, 2021 marcó el mayor repunte de la temporada de altcoins en la historia, con la proporción explotando hacia arriba a más de 0.55 en medio del frenesí del mercado alcista. Durante este tiempo, el volumen alcanzó nuevos máximos, con barras que se elevaban por encima de las de años anteriores.

Se Perfilan Nuevas Condiciones para la Temporada de Altcoins

Similar a la caída de 2020, el ciclo 2022-2024 experimentó una corrección posterior al pico, con la proporción tendiendo a la baja a medida que Bitcoin recuperaba el dominio. En el ciclo actual 2025-2026, la proporción de altcoins frente a Bitcoin finalmente ha regresado a la históricamente significativa zona de acumulación de 0.129, con BTC.D cayendo a un mínimo anual del 57.9%.

@CyrilXBT ha sugerido que el posicionamiento actual refleja la configuración previa a la temporada de altcoins que llevó a una gran explosión de altcoins en años anteriores. Señaló que la línea de tendencia alcista que conecta los picos sucesivos de la temporada de altcoins en el gráfico apunta a una proporción de aproximadamente 0.80 a 0.90 como el próximo objetivo potencial para este ciclo.

A medida que la proporción se estabiliza y las tendencias históricas se repiten, @CyrilXBT argumenta que el rendimiento reciente del mercado no indica que las altcoins estén muertas. Más bien, muestra que el mercado se ha reiniciado por completo y podría estar creando silenciosamente las condiciones para su próxima temporada de altcoins.

La capitalización total del mercado de altcoins se mantiene por debajo de $1 billón | Fuente: Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC de Tradingview.com

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İlgili Sorular

Q¿Qué nivel del ratio del mercado total de altcoins frente a Bitcoin indica el inicio potencial de una temporada alt según el analista CyrilXBT?

AEl analista CyrilXBT señala que el ratio se encuentra actualmente en aproximadamente 0.129, un nivel que históricamente ha sido la zona de base o acumulación que precede a cada gran temporada alt.

Q¿Cómo se comportó el ratio altcoin/Bitcoin durante el mercado alcista de 2017-2018 según el análisis?

ADurante el mercado alcista de 2017-2018, el ratio altcoin frente a Bitcoin experimentó un aumento dramático, superando el nivel de 0.3, lo que marcó una de las primeras grandes temporadas alt.

Q¿Qué sucedió con el ratio en el ciclo 2022-2024 antes de volver a la zona de acumulación?

AEn el ciclo 2022-2024, el ratio altcoin/Bitcoin corrigió a la baja después de alcanzar su pico, con una tendencia descendente a medida que Bitcoin recuperaba su dominio en el mercado.

Q¿Cuál es el próximo objetivo potencial del ratio para este ciclo según la línea de tendencia alcista mostrada por CyrilXBT?

ASegún la línea de tendencia alcista que conecta los picos sucesivos de las temporadas alt, el próximo objetivo potencial para este ciclo es un ratio de aproximadamente 0.80 a 0.90.

Q¿Qué indica la caída del ratio a la zona de 0.129 sobre el estado actual del mercado de altcoins?

ALa caída del ratio a la zona de 0.129 no indica que las altcoins estén muertas, sino que el mercado se ha reiniciado por completo y podría estar creando silenciosamente las condiciones para su próxima temporada alt.

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