分析师：2026年加密货币市场难现山寨币季，“蓝筹幸存者”将脱颖而出

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

CoinEx Research首席分析师Jeff Ko预测，2026年不太可能出现全面的山寨币牛市（altseason），流动性将高度集中于少数“蓝筹加密货币”而非普惠市场。他认为散户投资者期待的普涨行情难以实现，只有具备实际应用价值的蓝筹项目能获得资金青睐。Ko预计2026年全球流动性将温和改善，但央行政策分化会限制效果，同时比特币对M2货币供应量增长的敏感性自2024年ETF推出后已减弱。他对比特币2026年的目标价位设定在18万美元。然而，资深分析师Peter Brandt持不同观点，他认为当前周期尚未结束，比特币可能再经历80%的暴跌，底部或探至2.5万美元，并预测下一轮牛市高峰将出现在2029年9月——恰逢2028年4月减半事件后一年，符合四年周期规律。数据显示，比特币本季度已下跌22%，成为历史上第四季度第二差表现。尽管历史上前四季度通常表现强劲，但当前市场已清除大量风险仓位。分析师认为这为2026年构筑更健康的市场基础创造条件。比特币现报价约8.8万美元，较10月历史高点下跌30%。

CoinEx Research首席分析师Jeff Ko表示，典型的山寨币上涨行情可能在明年逐渐消退，只有「蓝筹」加密货币才能获得大部分流动性。

「期待水涨船高行情的散户投资者将会失望，」Ko告诉Cointelegraph，「我们预测不会出现传统的山寨币季；相反，流动性将极其挑剔，只会流向真正具有实际应用价值的蓝筹幸存者。」

Ko预计「2026年全球流动性将出现顺风，但会受到各国央行政策分歧的影响」，并补充说比特币对M2货币供应量增长的历史敏感性「自2024年ETF推出以来已经减弱，相关性逐渐降低」。

他补充说，该公司的「基本预测是比特币到2026年目标价18万美元」。

然而，并非所有分析师都同意这一观点，资深分析师Peter Brandt预测将出现另一轮漫长而持久的熊市。

比特币下一个峰值将在2029年

资深期货交易员Brandt周二表示，15年来，比特币在对数尺度上经历了五次抛物线式上涨，随后至少下跌80%，但「当前周期尚未结束」。

然而，当被问及本轮周期的底部时，他「预测下一个牛市高点将出现在2029年9月」。

这一预测将与四年周期理论完美契合，峰值出现在减半事件（预计在2028年4月左右）之后一年。然而，像前几个周期那样下跌80%可能会使BTC在此之前暴跌至25,000美元。

四年周期结束了吗？

历史上，第四季度通常是比特币表现最强劲的时期之一。根据Coinglass的数据，过去12个第四季度中，有8个季度出现了比特币最大的季度涨幅，其中只有一个季度的涨幅为个位数。

相关：比特币需求明显萎缩，分析师信号新熊市来临

然而，比特币本季度下跌超过22%，成为有史以来第二差的第四季度。

宏观投资资讯Milk Road周一表示，「这通常意味着市场已经清除了大量过剩风险和弱势仓位。」

「因此对于2026年，这并不自动保证上涨，但历史上看，以深度重置结束的周期往往具备更好的蓄势条件。」

比特币（BTC）目前交易价格约为88,000美元，较10月的历史高点下跌30%。

杂志：比特币关键水平82.5万美元，以太坊‘尚未结束’：交易秘密

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