12月4日:BTC、ETH、SOL 、VSN、HYPE行情分析

金色财经Published on 2025-12-04Last updated on 2025-12-04

加密市场继续回暖。BTC已连续3日修复,重回93k,接近30日均线94k。这或许和美联储QT结束、宏观流动性宽松等利好有关。

CEX 山寨跟随大盘,昨天只有机器人赛道的sapien 拉翻倍了,其余都是弱势拉升,不过有数据的山寨还不错,比如 ena hype pump 等;

BTC

BTC93-93.8K 关键价格区间,阻力位动能减弱,震荡通道上涨,潜在的极速通道模型,三段式回踩反弹,前两次都是触及下跌趋势线附近下跌,这次呢?  

第一次下跌后反弹12%,耗时10天; 

第二次下跌后反弹10%,耗时一周; 

第三次下跌后反弹16%目前,耗时12天  

BTC现阶段还是围绕前期震荡区间93000附近,上方筹码密集区在96000附近,当前走降息反弹行情,反弹幅度较大,虽然有机会,但追高需谨慎。  

从清算地图上看,上方有清算96000附近需求,而下方有回踩9万、8.8万的需求,一般关键位都会反复磨后才会突破,关键位也是机会位。

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ETH

ETH这波属于4h级别主升浪上涨形态,也可以理解成w底 ,这波高点预计在分割线1.618附近,对标价格3380-3400区间,计划在这个位置进场做空,短期不要进场做空了。

目前ETH到比较强的压力了 ,来看有回调需求,没有做多的可以关注3120 -3080 。

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SOL

SOL一鼓作气,再而衰三而竭。前晚拉的最猛,昨晚次之,今天就有点拉不动了。触底123后反弹到146.85,目前为止还没有正常的回踩,而146.85处于1日boll上轨,不回踩140以下没有必要补仓。  

146.85上方的阻力点再就是150.75、157。如果146这里没有7个点以上的回撤,那么到150-154也会有8-11个点的回撤,因为150是个整数关口,不会一下两下站得稳,所以150.5-154这里会诞生一个做空机会。站稳144.25-141.85后,才会再上攻157。

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VSN

合规版 Web3 + RWA 基础设施L1,上了B安Alpha,日线长期在一个标准下降通道里充分换手,最近在通道上沿附近放量抬头,有明显“想走出通道”的迹象;这个节点叠加 Alpha 上线,属于典型的 结构 + 叙事 共振位——风险还在,但赔率开始变好看。

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HYPE

HYPE已出现明显顶背离,价格接近平行高点并伴随 MACD 动能衰竭。若同时与比特币和以太坊出现共振回调,则提供短线做空机会。但需注意此类币波动更高,仓位与风险管理更重要。

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航情瞬息万变,具体进出场位置根据实时去决定,每一波暴跌后迎来的都是星辰大海,对后续行情布局相当迷茫的可以关注甜梦,交硫葳:RFGH8689

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Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, prepares for his inaugural press conference amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape: resurgent inflation, a bond market sell-off, and political pressure from President Trump for rate cuts. Uniquely, Warsh holds indirect investments in over 20 crypto and Web3 entities (e.g., Solana, dYdX), making him the first Fed Chair with disclosed crypto exposure. His stance may combine a hawkish, inflation-focused monetary policy with a crypto-friendly regulatory philosophy that shifts from Powell’s “same risk, same rule” approach toward a framework acknowledging blockchain’s productivity value. Warsh’s leadership could impact crypto markets across three dimensions: a paradigm shift in regulation (potentially accelerating pro-innovation legislation and stable币 rules), a re-pricing of risk premiums based on clearer communication and his view of AI as a structural disinflationary force, and a long-term reallocation of global institutional capital driven by increased legitimacy. Two potential scenarios for the press conference are outlined. A “positive surprise” would involve a dovish-leaning tone on rates coupled with signals of regulatory openness, potentially boosting crypto asset valuations. Conversely, a “negative shock” would see a more hawkish-than-expected stance on inflation and rates, triggering a broad risk-asset selloff that crypto markets would not escape. While ethics rules required Warsh to divest his crypto holdings upon confirmation, his deep understanding of the technology may fundamentally lower policy uncertainty and build a more receptive long-term foundation for digital assets’ integration into the mainstream financial system.

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