Grayscale Predicts Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Will ‘Prove To Be Incorrect’ in 2026 – Here’s Why

The crypto investment giant Grayscale is challenging the conventional wisdom that says the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will go down next year.

Bitcoin’s four-year halving schedule and large price drawdowns that historically happened once every four years give the impression that the benchmark cryptocurrency follows a four-year cycle.

But in a new report, Grayscale says that Bitcoin will likely defy the cyclical thesis and possibly even surge by next year.

“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”

The firm says Bitcoin’s current price pattern and market structure are different from those that characterize the previous cycles.

“First, unlike in past cycles, there was no parabolic price increase during this bull market that might suggest overshooting. Second, Bitcoin’s market structure has changed, with new capital largely coming through ETPs and digital asset treasuries (DATs) rather than retail exchanges.”

Grayscale says the optimistic outlook also stems from a broad market backdrop that appears favorable to the crypto asset class.

“Regulatory clarity drove a wave of institutional investment that will likely become the foundation for continued growth over the coming years…Although 2025 has been uneven for crypto markets, eventually fundamentals and valuation will converge, and we are optimistic about the crypto market outlook into year-end and 2026.”

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