反弹难掩颓势,比特币创Terra崩盘后最大月跌幅,“极度恐慌”暗示跌势未止?

华尔街日报Published on 2025-11-23Last updated on 2025-11-23

周日,加密货币出现反弹,比特币突破86000美元/枚,日内涨1.63%;以太坊向上触及2800美元/枚,日内涨1.11%。但这一反弹难以掩盖本月的惨烈跌势——比特币正经历自2022年Terra崩盘以来最糟糕的一个月。

上周五,比特币一度跌至80500美元附近的低点,市值蒸发约5000亿美元。这是加密货币市场首次在交易所交易基金(ETF)将华尔街和散户引入市场后,面临如此规模的压力测试。

投资者正从12只比特币相关ETF中撤出数十亿美元资金,据彭博数据显示,数字资产"国库公司"——那些专门持有代币的上市公司壳——遭遇了更大规模的资金流出,市场开始质疑这类企业结构的价值。

比特币自特朗普去年11月胜选以来仍上涨约50%,但其在特朗普称之为加密货币"黄金时代"的执政首年,大部分涨幅已化为乌有。对于已经深度融入华尔街和公开市场的加密货币而言,这场下跌揭示了一个更脆弱的生态系统。

10月闪崩埋下祸根

此轮下跌的明确导火索是10月10日的闪崩事件。当天,190亿美元的加密货币押注在数小时内被清算,将比特币从几天前刚创下的126251美元历史高点打落。

Cantor Fitzgerald分析师Brett Knoblauch和Gareth Gacetta在周四的报告中写道:"我们认为加密货币市场的大部分跌幅源于10月10日发生的事件。感觉像是一些大型参与者被迫抛售,因为10/10事件对资产负债表的影响可能远超最初预期。"

这场闪崩暴露了周末交易时段流动性长期不足的问题,以及某些交易所上过度杠杆的累积。Coinglass数据显示,上周五,随着最新一轮下跌冲击杠杆交易者,各交易所约有16亿美元的押注被清算。

流动性问题至今未能解决,受闪崩削弱的做市商无法介入支撑价格,加密货币市场的流动性持续处于低位。

华尔街资金撤离、加密财库模式面临考验

与以往不同,这次危机中的新角色是ETF。这些基金在上一轮加密货币大崩盘期间尚不存在。据彭博数据,投资者本月已从12只比特币相关基金中撤出数十亿美元,此前的买家包括哈佛大学捐赠基金和多家对冲基金。

Copper Technologies研究主管Fadi Aboualfa表示:"过去两个月发生的事情就像火箭燃料,好像人们预期会崩盘一样。这就是机构投资者的做法。他们不会持有不动,他们没有那种心态。他们会重新平衡投资组合。"

数字资产"国库公司"浪潮遭遇更严重的资金流出,这些仅为持有代币而设立的上市公司壳正面临价值质疑。

许多"国库公司"建立在这样一个信念上:仅持有加密货币的上市公司可以比其持有的代币价值更高。这种模式呼应了2022年过度杠杆化的贷款机构。如果信心崩溃,强制抛售可能随之而来,许多公司的代币持仓已处于水下。

区块链数据公司Kaiko高级研究分析师Adam Morgan McCarthy表示:"当你看到一家医疗器械公司或癌症研究公司转型为加密货币国库公司时,这就标志着你处于周期的哪个阶段。"

情绪跌至极度恐慌、风险仍在积累

行业内残存的任何积极情绪似乎正快速跌至谷底。据CoinMarketCap数据,上周五,衡量加密货币市场情绪的恐惧与贪婪指数得分为11分(满分100分),深陷"极度恐慌"区域。

专注于去中心化金融的公司Ergonia研究总监Chris Newhouse表示:"恐慌情绪已飙升至相对高位,而现货的结构性需求明显缺失,使市场失去了在重大回调期间通常出现的自然买家。"

值得一提的是,比特币价格本轮回调幅度仍远小于2021-2022年熊市期间75%的跌幅,这暗示痛苦可能还有多深。当时,每一轮下跌都暴露出另一个主要参与者的问题——从Celsius到BlockFi再到Three Arrows。

尽管这次没有明显的爆雷或丑闻,一些交易员认为当前下跌更多关乎技术面和信心,而非系统性裂痕。借贷平台Moonwell创始人Luke Youngblood表示:"我们没有走同样的下行路径;整体宏观条件、政府支持,以及行业内不良参与者的减少,使今天的市场更具韧性。即便未来仍有担忧因素,加密货币构建的基础更加坚实。"

风险提示及免责条款
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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