Индекс страха и жадности упал до минимума за девять месяцев

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-02-17Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-11-18

  • Индекс страха и жадности снизился до 10 пунктов — уровень «экстремального страха».
  • Текущее значение — одно из самых низких за последние девять месяцев.
  • За месяц показатель упал на 18 пунктов.

18 ноября 2025 года индекс страха и жадности опустился до 11 пунктов — это одно из самых низких значений за последние девять месяцев. Падение индикатора свидетельствует об «экстремальном страхе» трейдеров на рынке.

Индекс страха и жадности на рынке криптоактивов.Данные Alternative.

За последнюю неделю индекс снизился на 15 пунктов, а за месяц — на 18. Для сравнения: в начале октября он находился на уровне 74, что соответствовало «умеренному уровню жадности».

15 и 16 ноября показатель составлял 10 пунктов. Последний раз такие значения наблюдались в феврале 2025 года, когда биткоин обвалился ниже $80 000.

Отметим, сейчас падение показателя происходит на фоне обвала биткоина ниже отметки в $90 000.

Изменение индекса страха и жадности за последний год. Источник: Alternative.

В Alternative подчеркнули, что экстремальный страх может указывать на хорошую возможность для покупки активов, тогда как чрезмерная жадность, наоборот, свидетельствует о риске коррекции.

Примечательно, портал CoinMarketCap приводит несколько иные данные. Согласно им, по состоянию на 18 ноября 2025 года индекс страха и жадности находится на уровне около 15 пунктов.

Letture associate

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

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Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

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IBIT Records $1.3 Billion Outflow in a Single Week, Bitcoin's Largest ETF Becomes a Wall of Selling Pressure That Bulls Must Break Through

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, saw $1.3 billion in net outflows for the week ending June 26, accounting for roughly 73% of total ETF outflows ($1.79B). This significant, concentrated selling pressure from the primary vehicle that previously funneled institutional demand into bitcoin is now testing the market at a key support level near $60,000. The article notes a narrative shift: the same ETF that served as a major entry ramp for compliant investment is now operating in reverse as a potential exit lane. While ETF outflows represent a transmission risk rather than direct spot selling, they create a new structural headwind. Bitcoin's next move hinges on whether non-ETF buyers can absorb this pressure. Two scenarios are presented: if IBIT outflows slow and bitcoin reclaims the $59,000-$62,000 range, the event could be seen as a clearing of weak hands. However, if IBIT continues to lead significant redemptions while bitcoin struggles to hold $60k, the ETF complex itself may become a persistent source of selling pressure, challenging the long-held "institutional demand" thesis. The coming trading sessions will determine if this is a one-time purge or the start of sustained outflows.

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IBIT Records $1.3 Billion Outflow in a Single Week, Bitcoin's Largest ETF Becomes a Wall of Selling Pressure That Bulls Must Break Through

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Pump.fun surges 12% as holder count hits record high – 2 metrics could cap gains

The token of memecoin launch platform Pump.fun (PUMP) surged 12% as sentiment improved alongside renewed interest in memecoins. On-chain data showed strong investor participation, with the holder count reaching a record high of 122,440. Total Value Locked (TVL) also saw a significant increase of roughly $15.7 million, rising to $217.7 million and indicating fresh capital inflows. However, key protocol performance metrics contrasted with this positive price action and investor growth. Data revealed substantial declines in launchpad volume (down 86.7% to $5.8M), generated fees (down 35.6% to $587,200), and protocol revenue (down 23% to $147.8M). These drops suggest underlying user activity and platform utility remain weak. While the recent surge is supported by growing holder numbers and TVL, the sustainability of the rally is uncertain. For gains to be firmly supported, a recovery in fundamental protocol usage metrics is likely needed.

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Pump.fun surges 12% as holder count hits record high – 2 metrics could cap gains

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"King of Shilling" Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Setting His Sights on Deribit

On June 29, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes acquired approximately 6.16 million SYN tokens via OTC platform Flowdesk, valued at around $2.2 million. Subsequently, Hayes publicly endorsed SYN on X, calling it one of the most asymmetric investments he's seen since HYPE and declaring it time for an on-chain options DEX to challenge industry leader Deribit, naming Hypercall as that challenger. The article details the evolution of the Synapse Protocol, originally launched in 2021 as a cross-chain messaging and liquidity network. While its TVL peaked above $1 billion during the last bull market, it has since declined. The protocol's team has since built Hypercall, an on-chain options trading platform on Hyperliquid's HyperEVM, which supports trading options on "any asset" with features like 24/7 trading and defined risk limited to the premium paid. Deribit, founded in 2016, is highlighted as the dominant centralized crypto options exchange, commanding roughly 85% market share in BTC and ETH options. Its strengths include deep liquidity and professional tools, though it faces critiques over custody risk, KYC requirements, and regulatory uncertainty. The analysis suggests Hypercall's potential lies in decentralization, permissionless access, and transparency, potentially carving a niche in DeFi-native and emerging asset options. However, it faces significant challenges competing with Deribit's established network effect and liquidity depth. The piece concludes by noting Hayes's recent and mixed "call" history, referencing his previous promotion and subsequent sale of HYPE, as well as a controversial price target report for CARDS from his family office, Maelstrom, which was followed by a significant price drop for the asset. This activity has drawn criticism, with some accusing Hayes of creating exit liquidity for his followers.

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"King of Shilling" Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Setting His Sights on Deribit

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One Year After the Crash of Crypto Treasury Companies, Copycats Are Already Making a Comeback

One year after the collapse of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, which wiped out up to 99% for early investors, the scheme has returned in a new guise. Recently, Triller Group announced it would become a "SpaceX treasury company," causing its market cap to surge. This follows the rebranding of another firm, LGHL, now targeting a token called HYPE. The original model, popularized by MicroStrategy (MSTR) and its "Bitcoin yield" narrative, saw companies trading at massive premiums to their underlying crypto holdings. However, most followers like TwentyOne, Metaplanet, and Nakamoto have crashed 80-95%+ from their peaks, erasing nearly all value for late investors. The author argues these structures have no fundamental reason to trade at premiums when low-fee Bitcoin ETFs or direct ownership exist. The cycle persists due to speculative demand driven by FOMO, gamification, and a belief the system is rigged, met by insiders and promoters who profit from the pump-and-dump dynamics. Drawing a parallel to the 1637 Tulip Mania, the piece concludes that such frenzies are not a bug but a recurring product of markets, where greater fools provide demand and insiders supply the schemes. Despite holding Bitcoin personally, the author condemns this specific packaging of assets into leveraged corporate vehicles marketed as innovation, a cycle seemingly unstoppable until a major crash.

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One Year After the Crash of Crypto Treasury Companies, Copycats Are Already Making a Comeback

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