Key Takeaways
How much have Bitcoin new whales lost recently?
Bitcoin new whales realized over $1 billion in losses from 28 October to 8 November, with the worst single day on 7 November.
What’s the capitulation risk for Bitcoin price?
With new whales underwater, and weak technical momentum, the risk of panic selling increases if BTC fails to reclaim the critical $110,800 breakeven level.
Bitcoin new whales have realized over $1 billion in losses over the past week as BTC trades below their average cost basis of $110,800.
The massive losses raise concerns about potential capitulation from recent large-scale buyers who accumulated at higher prices.
CryptoQuant data shows new whales realized significant daily losses since 28 October. The worst day came on 7 November, when new whales lost $515.1 million in a single session.
Source: CryptoQuant
On 4 November, $286.4 million in losses were reported, followed by $107.5 million on 6 November and $90.7 million on 5 November.
Bitcoin currently trades around $106,000, sitting approximately 4.4% below the new whale cost basis. This underwater position creates pressure on the cohort that accumulated heavily throughout 2025.
New Bitcoin whale accumulation explodes in 2025
Data reveals Bitcoin whale addresses active within the last 24 hours have exploded from roughly 150,000 BTC in early 2024 to over 450,000 BTC currently.
This threefold increase demonstrates unprecedented accumulation by new large holders during Bitcoin’s rally toward its October all-time high of $126,296.
Source: CryptoQuant
These new whales bought aggressively as Bitcoin surged through $110,000 and beyond. Now, with prices retreating, they face mounting unrealized losses on top of the realized losses already taken.
The timing proves unfortunate for late arrivals. Old whales have been taking profits at recent highs while new whales accumulated.
This divergence between experienced and newer large holders could signal trouble if the trend continues.
Capitulation risk builds
The critical question now centers on whether new whales will hold through losses or capitulate.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 on 4 November, the first time since June. The dip to $99,966 represented a 21% decline from the October peak.
Source: TradingView
While BTC has since recovered to $106,000, the price remains stuck below the key $110,800 level, where new whales need Bitcoin to trade for breakeven.
Technical indicators show weak momentum. The Money Flow Index sits at 43.15, indicating neither strong buying nor selling pressure.
Whale flow data shows 0M in recent significant movements, suggesting large holders remain inactive and potentially indecisive.
What happens next
New whales face a difficult decision. They can hold through current losses and wait for Bitcoin to reclaim $110,800, or they can cut losses and sell, potentially triggering a cascade of liquidations.
The $110,800 level now serves as critical resistance. Bitcoin needs to break back above this price to relieve pressure on new whales and restore confidence among recent large-scale buyers.
Failure to do so increases the risk of capitulation selling that could push prices significantly lower.
For now, the data shows new whales are “feeling the heat” as CryptoQuant noted, with losses mounting and prices showing little urgency to recover above their breakeven point.
