Накопит ли Сальвадор $1 млрд в биткоине? Ставки растут

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-11-27Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-11-27

Президент Сальвадора Найиб Букеле (Nayib Bukele) привлек внимание к активному движению ставок на платформе прогнозирования событий Kalshi. Игроки делают ставки на то, что биткоин-резервы страны достигнут $1 млрд к концу 2025 года.

«Сейчас я мог бы сделать самую смешную вещь», — написал Букеле. Шансы Сальвадора достичь рубежа в $1 млрд до ноября подскочили с 20% до 38% на Kalshi.

Вскоре после поста Букеле конкурирующая платформа Polymarket также запустила похожую ставку, где вероятность достижения $1 млрд биткоин-рубежа к декабрю 2025 года составляла 43%.

Возможность сделать ставку на Kalshi по поводу резервов Сальвадора доступна с середины августа. Ставка «до декабря 2025 года» держалась около 24%, а «до ноября 2025 года» колебалась в районе 18% до последних нескольких дней.

После скачка до 38% ставка «до ноября 2025 года» упала до 27%, в то время как ставка «до декабря 2025 года» держалась на отметке 35%.

Интересно, что Kalshi отслеживала шансы достижения Сальвадором $1 млрд в криптовалюте несколько дней, а Polymarket запустила похожую возможность только после твита Букеле.

В июле президент центрального банка Сальвадора Дуглас Пабло Родригес Фуэнтес (Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes) и министр финансов Херсон Рохелио Посада Молина (Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina) заявили, что Сальвадор прекратил покупки биткоина после подписания кредитного соглашения на $1,4 млрд с Международным валютным фондом (МВФ) в 2024 году.

Несмотря на то, что эти заявления были частью официальной коммуникации Сальвадора с МВФ, Букеле и биткоин-офис Сальвадора продолжали сообщать о новых покупках биткоина. Сейчас в кошельке Сальвадора содержатся 6 282 биткоина ($709 млн).

Платформы для трейдерских ставок на события в последнее время набирают популярность. Бывший топ-менеджер Polymarket и Kalshi Тони Гемайель (Toni Gemayel) объявил о привлечении $15 млн от инвесторов вроде Coinbase Ventures для платформы для предсказания событий на рынках Clearing Company.

В данный момент Сальвадор владеет криптовалютой на сумму $709 млн, что означает необходимость роста примерно на 41% для достижения $1 млрд. При нынешней цене биткоина около $113 000 стране потребовалось бы дополнительно приобрести около 2 572 монет или дождаться значительного роста цены для достижения этой отметки.

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