【盯紧这几个点位】Uniswap 冲击 8 美元,多空信号齐现!

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-07-07Last updated on 2025-07-07

Abstract

Uniswap 交易员和投资者不应过度看涨,但也没有必要悲观。

  • 指标和指标为市场参与者提供了谨慎看涨的空间
  • 自 5 月以来,价格走势呈现上涨势头,但波动幅度较大
  • Uniswap [UNI]今年大部分时间都举步维艰。这款DEX 代币从 12 月的高点 19.47 美元跌至 4 月的低点 4.55 美元,跌幅达 74%。

然而,自5月中旬以来,价格缓慢上涨,50日移动平均线成为强劲支撑位。截至撰写本文时,链上活动表明该DEX的流量可能正在增加。

Uniswap 交易数量

来源:CryptoQuant

交易笔数的 7 天移动平均值显示,Uniswap 代币交易量自 4 月中旬以来持续上升。此后,交易量持续走高,凸显出 UNI 的需求不断增长,且使用率颇高。

Uniswap 交易量

来源:DefiLlama

与 4 月份相比,DEX 本身在 5 月和 6 月的交易量也有所增加。然而,交易量在 6 月底和 7 月初开始下降。这是否是 Uniswap 价格出现问题的早期迹象?

Uniswap 期货和现货活动信号冲突

前面提到的 CryptoQuant 指标使用交易频率和头寸规模来衡量 UNI 零售活动的水平。

零售活动活跃通常标志着市场过度扩张,并可能有助于发现局部顶部。2024年12月和2025年1月,期货零售活动活跃。同样,最近几周的活动水平也很高。

另一方面,过去三个月现货 CVD 自 5 月中旬以来一直看涨。

截至发稿时,90天现货CVD为正且不断上涨,表明市场处于吃单买盘主导的阶段。这一发现似乎与散户期货交易活动不符。积极的吃单买盘(或市价单)可能比期货交易活动活跃更具信号力。

最后,1日价格图突显了看涨势头。RSI高于中性50,价格高于20日和50日移动平均线。然而,CMF为-0.1,表明资金大量外流。Uniswap的下一步走势似乎再次出现了相互矛盾的信号。

综合所有证据来看,8 美元阻力位可能会出现更大的波动。尤其考虑到它似乎是一个短期内重要的阻力位。

一旦8美元跌至支撑位,寻求做多的波段交易者就可以入场。与此同时,尽管90天现货CVD显示买方占主导地位,但市场参与者仍应警惕看跌反转。

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