Nansen: крипторынок достигнет локального дна в ближайшие месяцы

investing.ruPubblicato 2025-04-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-04-03

По мнению аналитиков, трейдеры и инвесторы опасаются, что торговые тарифы США спровоцируют жесткие ответные меры со стороны других государств.

«Мы оцениваем вероятность того, что цены на криптовалюты достигнут дна в период с настоящего момента по июнь, в 70%», — сообщается в отчете.

Учитывая, что биткоин и эфир торгуются на 15% и 22% ниже своих годовых максимумов, результаты переговоров между США и ее торговыми партнерами выступят ключевыми рыночными индикаторами, уверены специалисты.

Они отметили, что фондовые индексы США и курс биткоина так и не смогли подняться значительно выше своих 200-дневных скользящих средних. Крипторынок нуждается в хороших новостях для преодоления стагнации и формирования устойчивого бычьего тренда.

Ранее эксперты американского инвестиционного банка JP Morgan заявили, что 14 публичных компаний-майнеров, акции которых торгуются на биржах, потеряли за март 25% капитализации ($6 млрд).

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Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

Indian value investor Mohnish Pabrai, a disciple of Warren Buffett, revealed his costly mistake of selling shares in Micron Technology too early. He initially invested in 2017, holding it for six years and building a position as large as 77% of his portfolio, based on a thesis that the memory chip industry would consolidate into a stable oligopoly of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. However, he sold his entire stake in September 2023, fearing oversupply after Samsung announced production expansion. Shortly after his exit, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) surged with the rise of AI, and Micron's stock price skyrocketed over 15 times in two years. Pabrai estimates this premature sale cost him roughly $20 billion in potential gains. He expressed similar regret over selling his investment in SK Hynix too soon, stating he violated his own principle of holding companies forever. Reflecting on these errors, Pabrai emphasized his core investment checklist principles: avoiding leverage, focusing on the durability of a company's competitive moat, and assessing management's character. Despite these personal trading missteps, his long-term view on the remaining memory chip leaders remains bullish, advising current holders not to sell as "the party is just getting started." He concluded by sharing his philosophical outlook, prioritizing character over wealth, and his goal to donate his entire fortune before his passing.

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Micron Shuts Up the Bears, Makes India's 'Buffett' Regret: Sold Too Early, Missed Out on $2 Billion

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Mihoyo's Next Protagonist Is Her, Who Plays the Piano

Mihoyo, widely recognized for its hit game Genshin Impact, has long harbored a grander ambition: creating a virtual world where one billion people would want to live. While its character design is unparalleled, the company recognizes a fundamental limitation—these beloved virtual characters are not truly "alive." Their dialogue and actions are pre-scripted. This drive for authentic "living" characters has guided Mihoyo's strategic investments in cutting-edge fields like brain-computer interfaces, AI (including an early investment in MiniMax), and nuclear fusion. Following the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, co-founder Cai Haoyu stepped down from management to lead a new overseas AI venture, Anuttacon, focused on creating AI-driven virtual beings. Mihoyo's path has involved experimentation and iteration. Anuttacon's early project, *Whisper of the Stars*, showcased real-time AI conversation but revealed limitations in underlying language models. The team subsequently focused its resources on developing a sophisticated "emotional" large language model, distinct from purely utilitarian AI. Co-founder Liu Wei (Dawei) announced plans to invest up to 100 billion RMB in this AI pursuit. The first tangible product of this vision is *BSide: Olivia Lin*, a free Steam application featuring a piano-playing virtual companion. Unlike typical AI chatbots demanding constant interaction, Olivia Lin operates on a slower, more deliberate rhythm—responding to letters, playing user-submitted melodies, and serving as a desktop presence. This design emphasizes "lifelikeness" over exhaustive conversation, strategically working around current technological constraints while building a sense of authentic connection. The company's journey traces back to its name, "miHoYo," where "mi" pays homage to the virtual singer Hatsune Miku. For nearly two decades, fans have loved Miku, a character unaware of their devotion. Mihoyo's ultimate goal, now backed by massive investment and AI research, is to bridge that gap—to create virtual beings that can truly know they are loved.

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Mihoyo's Next Protagonist Is Her, Who Plays the Piano

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Report Analysis: TSMC's AI Revenue to Double by 2027, CoWoS Capacity Remains a Bottleneck

Morgan Stanley's report on June 23 forecasts explosive growth for TSMC's AI-related revenue. It predicts revenue will surge to $86.3 billion in 2027, a 218% increase from 2026's $27.1 billion. While GPUs (led by Nvidia) remain the primary driver, significant new demand is emerging from AMD's Venice CPUs and MI400 GPUs, and Google's TPUs. A critical bottleneck is CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. Global demand for CoWoS is projected to reach 2.694 million units in 2027, a 93% year-on-year increase. Even with TSMC's planned expansion to 200k wafers/month and non-TSMC capacity, a shortage is expected, particularly for high-end CoWoS-L used by Nvidia. This scarcity grants TSMC pricing power. Key near-term catalysts include improved ABF substrate supply, rising CPU demand, and Nvidia's Rubin Ultra production. The report highlights winners across the supply chain, including MediaTek (Google TPU partner) and ASE Group.

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Report Analysis: TSMC's AI Revenue to Double by 2027, CoWoS Capacity Remains a Bottleneck

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Citrini Research: Taking Stock of 5 Major Investment Themes Overshadowed by the AI Trade

Citrini Research identifies five under-the-radar investment themes potentially overshadowed by the dominant AI trade. With capital and analyst attention overwhelmingly focused on AI infrastructure, these overlooked areas present alpha opportunities as market dynamics shift. **Theme 1: Airlines** – Despite strong fundamentals, stocks like Delta and United have been penalized for 18 months due to macro concerns (tariff-inflation, oil prices), not profitability. A rebound is expected as these headwinds fade, aided by trends like premiumization and the 2026 World Cup. **Theme 2: Senior Housing** – A pure demographic play. The U.S. population over 80 is projected to grow 56% in the next decade, drastically outpacing supply. This creates a compelling need for facilities, benefiting REITs like Welltower and operators like Brookdale. **Theme 3: Live Events & Entertainment** – "Being there" is becoming a luxury. This sector has outperformed even tech over the past decade. Companies like TKO Group (WWE/UFC), Cinemark, and IMAX are capitalizing on demand for premium, in-person experiences. **Theme 4: Exchange Competition** – CME Group's ~98% monopoly in U.S. interest rate derivatives faces its first real challenge from FMX Futures Exchange. Backed by major Wall Street banks, FMX offers lower fees and margin savings. While CME's deep liquidity remains an advantage, FMX provides a competitive alternative. **Theme 5: Fintech Recovery** – Heavily sold off in 2026, fintech stocks like SoFi, Robinhood, and Upstart are showing signs of a rebound based on improving fundamentals—SoFi's stablecoin launch, Robinhood's transformation into a "financial super app," and Upstart's renewed AI lending narrative—rather than a change in sector outlook. The report advises maintaining some AI exposure but diversifying into these neglected "small themes" where mispricing exists due to a simple shortage of investor attention.

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Citrini Research: Taking Stock of 5 Major Investment Themes Overshadowed by the AI Trade

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21Shares Mid-Year Key Report: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact, Stablecoins and Tokenization Emerge as New Growth Engines

21Shares Mid-Year Report 2026: Bitcoin Cycle Intact, Stablecoins & Tokenization Emerge as New Engines This mid-year review assesses progress against 21Shares' ten predictions for 2026. While the overarching shift from narrative to fundamentals holds, performance varies. Key findings show Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains evident despite market maturation. Global crypto ETP AUM has declined to ~$140B, lagging the $400B target, though product innovation continues. Stablecoin supply surpassed $320B, demonstrating non-cyclical demand but falling short of the $1T forecast due to slower regulatory clarity. DeFi TVL, stalled at ~$140B, was hindered by major security incidents. Corporate crypto treasuries hold ~1.28M BTC ($100B), with consolidation pressuring weaker players. Prediction markets are on track, with $57.5B volume already surpassing half the $100B annual target. AI agent infrastructure is ready, but adoption is early. Ethereum L2 consolidation is underway, with the top 5 capturing nearly 90% of activity. Compliant token launches have a platform but lack mainstream volume. Tokenized RWAs total ~$31B on public chains, but institutional pipeline growth is strong. In summary, fundamentals like stablecoins, tokenization, and prediction markets are advancing, but targets require faster adoption or price appreciation. The market is maturing, yet cyclical patterns persist.

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21Shares Mid-Year Key Report: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact, Stablecoins and Tokenization Emerge as New Growth Engines

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