Bitcoin Bottom May Be 2 Months Away, On-Chain Data Suggests
Based on historical on-chain data, Bitcoin may be approaching a cycle bottom within approximately two months. A key indicator, the ratio between the long-term holder (6m-10y) realized price and the broader market (0-10y) realized price, has reached a critical level of 0.936. Historically, when this ratio drops below 0.936 and subsequently recovers to 1.0—signaling that even long-term holders are at a loss—it has marked major market bottoms. Past cycles saw this recovery take 50 to 66 days. If the pattern repeats, a definitive bottom could form by mid-to-late July 2026.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $75,269, having tested the $76,000 support level multiple times. Market sentiment is fearful, with the Fear & Greed Index at 28. While short-term predictions vary, some analysts forecast a potential rise to around $90,529 within three months.
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