美国真的需要比特币战略储备吗?

币界网Published on 2024-08-19Last updated on 2024-08-19

币界网报道:

在金融专家的激烈辩论中,美国比特币战略储备资产日益受到关注。

加密货币倡导者制定了一项增强数字代币的战略:提议在美国建立一个类似于现有国家黄金储备的国家比特币储备。

这可能是出乎意料的,但寻求加密货币选民支持的政客,包括前总统唐纳德·特朗普,已承诺建立这种性质的保护区。

美国比特币战略储备资产究竟是什么?

政府的一个作用是重新分配收入和购买力。

人们普遍认为,这些转移将对整个社会产生积极影响,确保所有人的公平生活水平,并在公众参与下透明和负责任地确定。

然而,由于没有一刀切的解决方案,政治往往涉及相互竞争的利益冲突以及对理想的分歧。

怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)提出了一项计划,在一段时间内通过100万单位的购买计划收购比特币总供应量的重要股份。

从“美国”持有的黄金储备的规模和范围来看,鉴于目前的价格为58600美元,如果有人在不考虑其价值的情况下进行如此大规模的购买,很可能会导致价格飙升,为现有持有者带来可观的利润。

对于那些熟悉比特币所有权世界的人来说,这一概念的兴起并不奇怪。

正如法案第9节所述,此次收购将通过重新评估美联储对财政部黄金持有的索赔来获得资金。

随后,普通账户(TGA)将获得大量资金,总计数千亿美元。

尽管目前黄金的市场价格接近每盎司2500美元,但官方记录的法定价格仍仅为每盎司42.22美元。

这种策略类似于“铸造硬币”,但涉及黄金而不是铂金。

有趣的是,阿根廷央行将如何在比索下跌期间从以美元计价的资产中获利,然后通过发行更多比索来利用这些资金为预算赤字融资。

无论如何,在财政部使用新贷记的TGA资金投资比特币后,这些美元最终将出现在私人资产负债表上,可能是与美联储挂钩的计息资产,如银行储备或反向回购。

参议员Lummis在纳什维尔比特币会议上的演讲中暗示,政府比特币资产价值的增长将使财政部能够回购其所有以美元计价的债务。

她声称:“这是我们购买路易斯安那州的时刻。”

她在一份新闻稿中表示,“建立比特币战略储备将坚定地确保美元在21世纪作为世界储备货币的地位,并确保我们仍然是金融创新的世界领导者……美国在某些对美国国家安全和独立至关重要的硬资产中保持战略储备,如黄金和石油。”

她补充说,“建立一个战略比特币储备,以数字硬资产支撑美元,将确保我们国家在未来几十年作为全球金融领导者的地位。”

与个人一样,政府也会储备实物和金融资产,以防突然和不可预见的成本或收入差距。

在追求这些资产(和保险)时,牺牲了享受更少商品和服务的能力,但事情出错时的负面风险是有限的。

您希望减轻的负债和风险应告知您关于购买资产类型和数量的决定。

例如,美国居民的支出将以美元表示。

因此,如果他们经常去加拿大或澳大利亚旅行或在这些国家兼职居住,他们看不到用加拿大或澳大利亚货币存放应急资金的效用。

如果这些人的应急基金足够大,可以支付几十年的费用,那也是愚蠢的;这样做需要一种不理想的组合,即生活远低于他们的收入,以及对危险资产的投资不足,而这些资产本应随着时间的推移而增值。

反对者称之为风险策略

原因:比特币具有几个特殊的特性(如下所列),这使得它成为一个有风险的赌注。

    理论上,它记录了所有不能更改的交易。如果有一个自由的监管框架、足够的计算能力和能源,任何人都可以创造比特币。由于产量逐渐降至零,因此有2100万BTC的硬上限。政府或任何其他资金来源都无法保证。虽然它的价格非常不可预测,但自成立以来,它的总价值已经大幅增加。

反对者认为,任何试图建立主权储备投资组合的人都不应该被这些资产所吸引,无论它们对其他人来说有多诱人。

重要的是,比特币的价格波动使风险变得更糟,而不是更好。

在疫情的最初几周,价格下跌了50%;从2021年11月中旬到2022年11月,它下降了约80%。

对于那些寻求对冲货币对美元升值贬值的较贫穷国家来说,拥有比特币将是一场灾难。

随着总未偿金额(已经约为2000万BTC)接近上限,新供应价格上涨,这种波动性只会加剧。

比特币交易比美元或欧元交易更难监控,但并非不可能。此外,比特币交易转换为用于支付账单的法定货币总是会在某个时候发生。

与俄罗斯以人民币计价的贸易在政治上是微妙的,这是有原因的。

投赞成票说不然

当现货比特币ETF的想法被提出时,加密货币倡导者和反对者之间的一对拳类似于我们现在看到的狂热意识形态分歧。

自今年1月比特币ETF获得批准以来,对这些基金的投资呈指数级增长。

如果这一概念得到批准,比特币到年底可能会达到10万美元,而以太币可能会达到4000美元。

这是Metafide首席执行官Frank Speiser的说法。

在与Tim Stenovec和Katie Greifeld一起出现在“彭博加密”节目中时,他还谈到了比特币战略储备的潜在应用。

比特币在美国的未来是一个备受争议的话题,因为它在大型机构中越来越受欢迎。

根据BlockFills的Rob Nelson和场外交易主管John Divine最近关于比特币可能转变为战略储备资产的讨论,圆桌会议主持人称这可能是一种经济范式转变。

这一关键变化引发了人们对潜在转型速度和政治反对派可能出现的障碍的质疑。

比特币收益分解为结构性冲击

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