如何拥有花不完的钱?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-14Last updated on 2024-08-14

Abstract

比特币+软清算,「躺平」的最佳方案?

原文作者:Alex Liu,Foresight News

如何拥有花不完的钱?

声明:本文观点仅在一定条件和语境下成立。

  • 钱花不完:在无需劳动的情况下,可支配法定货币随着时间逐渐增加。

  • 前置条件:

  • 比特币作为「数字黄金」对冲通胀的逻辑长期成立,即虽有价格波动,在较长时间尺度下比特币会相对信用货币升值。

  • 不发生改变社会运行逻辑的黑天鹅事件。

花不完的钱

提到「花钱」,大家脑海中的默认概念还是「消费法币」。小编也只会给老板发:「明天疯狂星期四,能 V 我 50 吗?」,而不会发「明天疯狂星期四,能 V 我 50 BTC 吗?」;一是怕被打,二是国内的 KFC 也确实尚不支持 BTC 付款。

比特币的「数字现金」叙事并没有跑通。曾有人问知名比特币大多头、MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Micheal Saylor:「为何很少有人用一点比特币去换一杯咖啡?」Saylor 回复到:「你拥有一栋大楼的话,你会用大楼的一角去换一杯咖啡吗?」这有些诡辩的意思了,仅持有比特币,在日常生活中「花钱」的确是不方便的。

但 BTC 作为「数字黄金」,一种存储价值的资产(Store of Value Asset)的叙事未被证伪。通过比特币,或许我们真能拥有「花不完的钱」—— 若它对冲通胀的逻辑长期成立,那一定会在较长时间尺度下相对信用货币(法定货币)升值。我们只需简单持有 BTC,它所对应的法币价值最终一定会逐渐上涨。不用劳动,美美躺平。

但前文说「花比特币」并不方便,而无论是花掉还是卖掉,比特币的数量总是会逐渐减少的,又谈何「花不完呢」?

答案是抵押借贷。

抵押借贷

若存在资产 A 相对资产 B 一直升值,那么抵押资产 A 借出资产 B,随时间推移,理论上可以源源不断借出资产 B。不必出售 A,也不必偿还 B

放在具体案例中,抵押 BTC 借出法币(或 USDT、USDC 之类的稳定币),由于信用货币天然具有滥发、长期贬值趋势,则 BTC 会相对信用货币逐渐升值(即本文成立的前提),在此过程中逐渐借出更多的法币,则我们得以在不出售 BTC、不用劳动的情况下,可支配的法定货币随时间逐渐增加,即「拥有花不完的钱」。

但此处存在一个问题,抵押借贷是有「清算风险」的。BTC 相对信用货币升值是长线趋势,但在短期依然存在着价格波动,即便抛开「插针」等事件不谈,从一轮周期的高点到低点往往也有 50 % 甚至 70 % 以上的振幅。

被清算,相当于被迫在低价卖出 BTC 换回法币偿还债务,「钱花不完」的尝试又失败了。同时由于行情波动剧烈,有可能出现一根 k 线砸到清算价以下导致清算,而后币价快速拉回,给借贷者造成巨额损失的情况。

避免清算的一个方法是保持极低的 LTV(Loan to Value),如抵押价值 100 万美元的 BTC 只借出 30 万美元,几乎可以免于短期价格波动导致的清算。但一方面不存在「绝对的保险」,另一方面这样做的资金利用率未免太低。

那该怎么做呢?

软清算

可以使用软清算机制的借贷来避免短期币价波动导致我们失去 BTC 仓位。以抵押 BTC 借出 crvUSD 为例:

在 Curve Finance 的 crvUSD 产品中,抵押品的清算是通过 AMM 进行的,并且是以渐进式的软清算方式,抵押品会随价格下跌逐渐清算。但 AMM 中的清算是可逆的,在抵押品价格上涨后,AMM 会帮助用户买回资产。

清算 AMM

crvUSD 通过 LLAMMA(Lending-Liquidating AMM Algorithm)实现软清算,为抵押资产设计了一个特殊的 AMM 池,实现在资产价格下跌时逐渐清算。其中的清算线有两个,分别是清算开始价格和清算终止价格。在抵押资产高于清算价格时,AMM 池中全是抵押品。抵押品价格下跌至清算开始价格时,AMM 中的抵押品开始被卖出换成稳定币,之后在价格下跌过程中抵押品被逐渐卖出。在抵押品价格跌至清算终止价格之下时,AMM 中只剩下稳定币。

LLAMMA 的清算过程可以理解为一个「反向的 Uniswap V3」。假设 AMM 要处理的是 BTC-crvUSD 交易对,在 Uniswap V3 中,流动性提供者(LP)需要设置 BTC 的价格区间。当 BTC 的价格处于区间之内时,AMM 中有两种可以互相兑换的 Token,在价格区间之外时,AMM 池中只有一种 Token,这也是 LLAMMA 清算开始价格和结束价格的设计思路。当抵押品是 BTC 时,价格高于区间 AMM 池中全部为 BTC,在价格区间之内时 BTC 逐渐被清算为 USD,见图。

和 Uniswap V3 的不同之处是,Uni V3 中 BTC 价格越高,AMM 池中的 USD 的数量越多。而在 LLAMMA 中,BTC 价格越低时,AMM 池中 USD 的数量越多,因为需要卖出 BTC 用于清算。BTC 价格升高时,还可以买回 BTC 抵押资产,尽量保证用户的敞口不变。

如何拥有花不完的钱?

在软清算的机制下,即使清算发生,我们会在价格涨回过程中以和卖出几乎相同的价格买回抵押品,保证仓位的几乎不变。而由于在较长时间尺度下比特币会相对信用货币升值这一前提,被清算必然在未来涨回。(软清算由外部套利者发动,借贷者会有相对硬清算极少的损失,需避免频繁落入清算区间。这里也体现出与 Uni v3 相反的设计哲学:LP 希望价格尽量多落在区间内收获费用,借贷者希望价格尽量少落在区间内减少损失。)

到此逻辑闭环:持有比特币并使用软清算机制进行法币借贷,比特币升值过程中我们能获得持续的现金流,无需出售比特币或担心短期价格波动造成的清算将这一切搞砸。在持有一定比特币的情况下,无需劳动而可支配的法定货币随时间逐渐增加。这算不算是拥有了「花不完的钱」?

结语

本文介绍了一种投资与消费的策略,即保证 BTC 仓位的同时通过借贷策略拥有持续的现金流,并介绍了使用软清算机制的优势。若持有大量 BTC,本方案具备实操性,或许真是让人不用劳动,美美躺平的最佳策略之一。但本方案也有一个缺陷,让像作者一样的同学无法躺平,只能苦苦打工 —— 没有指出足够躺平的 BTC 该上哪儿领 ......

于是小编决定突破自己,毅然拿出手机,给老板发到「明天疯狂星期四,能 V 我 50 BTC 吗?」,喜提拉黑。

参考文章:

读懂 Curve 稳定币 crvUSD https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/37304

原文链接

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