伯恩斯坦分析师：哈里斯的崛起导致了比特币疲软

币界网Published on 2024-08-14Last updated on 2024-08-14

币界网报道：

作者：José Oramas，Crypto News；编译：白水，

  • Bernstein 分析师认为，比特币的下跌与卡马拉·哈里斯在与唐纳德·特朗普的民意调查中获得支持有关，投资者认为哈里斯政府可能不利于加密货币。

  • 报告称，哈里斯在 Polymarket 上不断上升的赔率使比特币保持在有限的范围内，阻止其达到先前的高点。

  • 总体而言，加密货币仍然是一个敏感的政治问题，随着美国总统大选的临近，两党都认识到其重要性。

由于卡马拉·哈里斯，比特币正在暴跌。

嗯，这就是伯恩斯坦分析师所建议的：随着哈里斯在民意调查中赢得对前总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持，加密货币市场的情绪似乎正在发生负面转变，主要是因为一些投资者和加密货币社区成员认为哈里斯政府可能不利于加密货币。

这可能并不奇怪，因为拜登政府因对加密货币的态度过于严格而受到批评。然而，批评主要可以归咎于美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 主席加里·根斯勒。

此外，伯恩斯坦分析师指出，哈里斯在 Polymarket 上不断上升的赔率让加密货币市场感到紧张，将比特币保持在有限的范围内，并阻止其恢复之前 6 月份约 70,000 美元（106,000 澳元）的高点。

Polymarket现象

哦，预测市场……你不需要研究公司发布投票结果调查或对政治形势进行广泛的研究和分析。只要看一眼Polymarket，你就会知道谁是美国的下一任总统。

资料来源：2024 年总统选举获胜者，Polymarket

这是因为 Polymarket 已经开发出了出色的产品市场契合度 (PMF)。其简单直接的加密货币投注方法使其成为投资者情绪的可靠指标，尤其是在政治领域。投注者对哈里斯的押注越多，就越能表明他们对她赢得大选的几率越来越有信心。

很简单：如果投注者相信某位候选人正在获得势头，这可能会产生看涨情绪，在一定程度上推高加密货币价格。相反，如果对某位候选人的信心下降，就会引发恐慌。

“我们对当前市场情绪的解读是，特朗普获胜是看涨的，而哈里斯获胜是看跌的（至少就即时市场反应而言），”报告中写道。

加密货币作为敏感的政治工具

Gensler 任职期间，大力执行针对加密货币公司（以及整个行业）的监管规定，他曾臭名昭著地称加密货币公司受到“骗子、欺诈者和诈骗大师”的困扰。

Gensler 对加密货币监管的态度引起了行业的强烈反对，Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 等关键人物认为，严厉（且不明确）的监管监督扼杀了创新，并将企业推向对加密货币更加友好的国家。

总而言之，加密货币似乎仍将是政治发展的敏感话题，尤其是现在美国总统大选定于 11 月举行。难怪两党都认识到加密货币行业的重要性。他们是否吸引选民或真正关心这个行业还有待未来几个月观察。

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