对最新的通胀报告有什么期待?

币界网Published on 2024-08-13Last updated on 2024-08-13

币界网报道:

周二是股市的好日子,各方面表现强劲。这一切都要归功于美国最新的批发通胀报告,乍一看,这份报告相当不错。

但请保持冷静——投资者在这里需要谨慎。生产者价格指数(PPI)与消费者价格指数(CPI)没有太大关系,而消费者价格指数才是真正推动市场的因素。

7月份的PPI小幅上涨0.1%,低于专家预测。但仅仅因为PPI没有失控,并不意味着CPI在周三下跌时也会随之下跌。

金融市场每个月都对PPI反应过度,这是疯狂的,因为它不如CPI重要。

有趣的是,如果7月份的CPI报告符合投资者的期望,美联储可能会在下个月开始考虑降息。这可能会给股市带来另一个提振。

标准普尔500指数收盘上涨近2%,纳斯达克指数飙升2.4%,道琼斯指数上涨408点以上,涨幅1.04%。

考虑到8月5日的低点,道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数出现了自2022年以来最严重的单日回调,这并不算太糟糕。

市场对通胀数据的奇怪反应

周二有关通货膨胀的消息是好的,但每个人都为周三劳工部的CPI报告祈祷。

如果CPI支持PPI的数据,那么也许——只是也许——我们今年早些时候看到的价格飙升只是侥幸,或者是通货膨胀最终消退前的最后一口气。

如果CPI报告看起来是积极的,美联储可能最终会摆脱对通货膨胀的担忧,开始处理其他问题,比如劳动力市场放缓。

大多数华尔街人士认为,美联储将在9月改变政策,从专注于抗击通胀的紧缩政策转向阻止就业市场暴跌的宽松政策。

道琼斯调查的经济学家预计,CPI在所有项目读数和不包括食品和能源的核心指标上也将增长0.2%。

但12个月的利率预计为3%和3.2%,虽然低于2022年中期的高点,但仍不完全符合美联储的要求。

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