前日本央行官员：由于市场不稳定，今年不再加息

币界网Published on 2024-08-12Last updated on 2024-08-12

币界网报道：

专家怀疑日本央行今年是否会进一步加息。日本央行最近的加息引发了市场抛售，影响了股票和加密货币。

在意外的情况下，包括日本央行（BoJ）前董事会成员在内的专家表示，由于由此引发的市场动荡和日本经济复苏缓慢，今年不太可能进一步加息。

前董事会成员樱井诚在最近接受彭博社采访时重申了这一点，他说：，

“他们将无法再次徒步旅行，至少在今年剩下的时间里是这样。他们是否能在明年三月前徒步旅行还不得而知。”

到目前为止发生了什么？

此前，日本央行意外加息至0.25%，这是17年来的第二次加息，导致日经指数下跌2.49%，也标志着日本长期以来的超宽松货币政策发生了重大转变。

此外，在日本央行做出大胆决定后，股票和加密货币市场也经历了大幅抛售。

这突显了日本与加密货币市场之间的奇怪联系，日本经济的变化往往会对加密货币市场产生直接影响，反之亦然。

不加息的背后是什么？

对于那些一无所知的人来说，市场情绪的转变可以归因于隔夜指数掉期市场，该市场追踪对未来利率变化的预期。

目前，这表明日本央行在年底前再次加息的可能性降低，这与7月份加息后的初步前景形成鲜明对比。

Sakurai补充道，

“在恢复正常货币政策的过程中，他们决定从几乎零利率的世界转向正常的0.25%是件好事。”

在这里，樱井承认，向货币政策正常化过渡是必要的，但也是具有挑战性和资源密集型的。

不用说，樱井建议日本央行谨慎行事，建议他们在考虑进一步加息之前暂停并评估影响。

这突显了一个小而不知情的决定如何对整个经济产生影响。

话虽如此，樱井在强调时说得最好，

“学术经济学家往往过于直率，因为答案可以从数字中找到。但实际经济并没有那么简单。因此，当局也需要摸索和驾驭现实。”

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