三季度加密市场展望：上升趋势仍在继续， ETF 显著提升 BTC 需求

比推Published on 2024-08-09Last updated on 2024-08-09

当 MVRV 比率找到支撑（不低于）时，通常是购买的好时机。目前，MVRV 比率已从支撑位反弹，表明上升趋势仍在继续。

撰文：CRYPTO, DISTILLED

编译：深潮 TechFlow

Coinbase 刚刚发布了他们的 2024 年第三季度「加密市场展望」。

内容丰富，我已经阅读了全部 60 页，你可以省去这个过程。

以下是你需要知道的主要要点：

市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV)

MVRV 比率是评估市场情绪和加密货币价格波动的指标。它比较了加密货币当前市场价格与持有者购买时的平均价格。

在市场修正中，当 MVRV 比率找到支撑（不低于）时，通常是购买的好时机。目前，MVRV 比率已从支撑位反弹，表明上升趋势仍在继续。

来源：Glassnode

比特币从周期低点的投资回报率 (ROI)

比特币经历了四个市场周期，每个周期都有牛市和熊市的价格波动。当前周期自 2022 年开始，自 2022 年 11 月的低点以来，BTC 已上涨约 400%。这个周期类似于 2018-2022 年的周期，当时 BTC 从低点飙升了 2000%。我们可能会经历几个月的横盘整理。

来源：Glassnode

加密货币相关性下降

在第二季度，加密资产之间的相关性下降，ETH 的相关性为 0.7，部分山寨币低于 0.5。这种脱钩表明市场对基本面的理解加深，回报变得更加分散。预计随着监管的进一步明确和机构的采用，相关性将继续下降。

来源：Coinbase

波动性感知与现实

随着美国现货加密货币 ETF 的推出，加密货币的范式正在改变，扩大了投资者的获取渠道，并降低了波动性。

感知：数字资产对许多投资者而言波动性过大。

现实：加密市场的市值波动性与主要科技股相当。

来源：Tephra Digital

现货 ETF 的影响

现货 ETF 显著提升了对 BTC 的需求，但供应仍然限于矿工奖励。自推出以来，ETF 的需求远超新 BTC 的发行速度。

来源：Glassnode

以太坊市场周期

ETH 已经历两个完整的市场周期。当前周期自 2022 年开始，自 2022 年 11 月以来，ETH 已上涨超过 150%。这个周期与 2018-2022 年的时期相似，当时 ETH 从低点飙升了 6000%。然而，ETH 正面临显著的短期挑战。时间将证明 ETF 产品是否能推动可持续的长期复苏。

来源：Glassnode

ETH 总锁仓价值 (TVL)

TVL 跟踪智能合约和去中心化应用 (dApps) 中山寨币和稳定币的价值，反映金融活动和流动性。在第二季度，TVL 上升了 9%，显示出以太坊区块链上的活动增加。

来源：Glassnode

FTX 现金分配

FTX 将很快向接收者分配 160 亿美元现金。如果接收者选择将资金再投资，这一分配可能会导致加密市场的重大资金流入。需要注意的重要日期有 8 月 16 日的受托人投票和 10 月 7 日的法院批准截止日期。

稳定币

截至目前，稳定币的市值超过 1600 亿美元，在两周内增加了 20 亿美元，已超过 3AC 前的水平。稳定币作为加密流动性的反映，是长期价格预测的关键因素。随着资金流入，长期看跌的前景难以成立。

完整的 Coinbase 报告请参考：2024 年第三季度 – 加密市场指南

原文链接:https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_19610.html
说明: 比推所有文章只代表作者观点，不构成投资建议
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