监测韩国市场,帮助你寻找下一个 Pump

Foresight NewsPubblicato 2024-03-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-26

Introduzione

鉴于美国监管环境的不确定性,以及亚洲对加密货币的接受度不断提高,我们正在见证 Crypto「由西向东」的转变。

加密货币交易要学会利用市场数据和工具,比如 ARB 和 APT,从数据上看它们的波动都紧跟着韩国 crypto 交易市场的趋势,加密研究员 Miles Deutscher 撰写了关于「如何利用韩国市场来做加密交易」的文章,BlockBeats 编译如下:

韩国加密市场飞速发展

今年来最大的 pump 来自于韩国,比如 APT 和 ARB,经我观察后发现了一种方法,帮你尽可能早的发现下一个 pump,以下是指南:

韩国加密市场市值一直处于爆炸式增长阶段,韩本地对 Web 3 的支持、强劲的经济、对创新和技术的关注共同促成了韩国市场的发展。所以,韩国最终成为世界加密中心之一,也是交易量排名前四的国家。

当下最火爆的韩国加密货币交易平台当属 Upbit,也是迄今为止韩国最大的加密货币交易平台,占据韩总体加密市场份额的 76.6%。

监测市场趋势的工具

由于其主导地位,监测 Upbit 交易已成为跟踪韩国加密市场趋势的主要方式之一。以下 3 种工具可以帮助你抓住韩国的 Crypto pump:

Crypto Exchange Listing Bot

通过使用 Crypto Exchange Listing Bot 来监测新上线的 token,该网站可以在新 token 上线时即时给用户发送相关信息(通过 Email、Tel、Dc 等方式),可以帮助你快速找到下一个 listing pump。

CoinMarketCap

CoinMarketCap 想必大家都很熟悉,使用 CoinMarketCap 中的监测韩元相关交易对部分,该界面会按照交易量显示 token 排名以及其它相关指标,对于你追踪一些热门 token 很有必要。

Unusual Upbit Volume Bot

Unusual Upbit Volume Bot 允许用户使用交易数据机器人自动识别出异常的交易量峰值,可以作为加密货币交易的研究评判,该 Bot 会将 Upbit 数据与对应的 Binance 数据配对。

4 月 13 日,该机器人检测到 Upbit ARB 交易量增加了 102.9%。当天晚些时候,ARB 上涨 40%。

于我而言,如果出现交易量峰值,我不会立即开多单,我通常通过成交量的增加作为进一步交易该 token 的信号,确定价格行为背后的驱动因素,然后再进行交易。

一种 token 交易的评判机制

确定交易一种 token 时,我会通过 4 个方面来考量:

该 token 与韩国社区之间是否存在协同效应?

该 token 交易量的增长是否持续了一段时间?

是否有其它因素影响该 token 价格行为?

该 token 相关图表数据看起来不错吗?(这很重要)

寻找高 FDV 的 token,低流通量下交易量的增加会对 token 价格产生很大的影响,比如 APT 和 ARB,这也是他们成为 pump 的原因(尤其是 APT)。

结语

随着韩国市场的快速增长,关注基于交易的指标和发展方面数据是很有意义的。当然,我也在密切关注其他亚洲市场,如香港和日本。鉴于美国监管环境的不确定性,以及亚洲对加密货币的接受度不断提高,我们正在见证 crypto「由西向东」的转变。

Crypto di tendenza

Letture associate

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

"Rented Conviction: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Is Real Money" The weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a gauge of institutional belief. However, a significant portion of this activity is driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not directional conviction. The core mechanism is a cash-and-carry arbitrage: traders buy spot Bitcoin (often via ETFs) while simultaneously shorting CME futures to lock in the price difference, or "basis." This delta-neutral trade is essentially an interest rate play. In weekly data, about half the fluctuation in ETF flows can be explained by new short positions added by leveraged funds (hedge funds), with a correlation of 0.70. Bitcoin's price movement in a given week shows no statistical power in predicting these flows. While this arbitrage trade drives weekly *volatility*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the total ~$55 billion in net ETF inflows, the current net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The remainder is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week, which constitutes the vast majority of the accumulated "mountain" over two years. Thus, ETF flow data overstates the *volatility* of conviction, not its *level*. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for nearly two years. Leveraged fund short positions peaked at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and have since declined to ~$4.5 billion. When the basis compresses to unprofitable levels, ETF inflows and short positions retreat together. Recent outflows should not be mistaken for a loss of faith but rather the routine unwinding of this rate trade. For Ethereum ETFs, the pattern is weaker. Accounting for staking yield makes the basis often negative, so neither strong conviction buying nor robust arbitrage supports its flows. To interpret ETF flows correctly, monitor the CME basis versus T-bill rates and leveraged fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the next "demand" headline is real. The real, patient buy-and-hold demand is what constitutes the enduring bulk of ETF assets.

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Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

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Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

South China Morning Post The leveraged ETF tracking SK Hynix has surged over tenfold year-to-date, fueled by intense market speculation on the memory chip sector. By June 22, the value of the 'South Korea 2x Long SK Hynix ETF' listed in Hong Kong had skyrocketed by more than 1,061% since the start of the year, while its asset size exploded over twenty times from the end of last year. The rally is driven by AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), with SK Hynix recently sampling its next-generation HBM4E product. However, industry professionals warn of significant risks. Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses. During a recent market correction, while the underlying SK Hynix stock fell 19.1%, its double-leveraged ETF dropped nearly 38%. Korean regulators noted that such products could theoretically lose 60% in a single day. Additionally, these ETFs face risks like time decay in volatile markets, liquidity spirals during mass redemptions, and extreme price dislocations from market-making failures, as seen in early June when an ETF moved opposite to its underlying stock. The trading is predominantly driven by retail investors, with institutional capital largely absent due to the products' high volatility. Analysts caution that with the semiconductor sector at elevated valuations and facing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties, leveraged ETFs pose a substantial threat of amplified losses for uninformed investors.

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Soaring Over Tenfold Within the Year: The Frenzy Over SK Hynix Leveraged Products

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

KIOXIA, a NAND flash memory giant, staged a dramatic comeback driven by AI demand. After a period of significant losses, a failed merger, and missed HBM opportunities, its 2024 IPO began modestly. However, fueled by explosive demand for AI data storage, its stock price skyrocketed over 50 times within 18 months, making it Japan's most valuable company, surpassing Toyota. Its Q1 FY2026 profit guidance soared 30-fold year-over-year, with 2026 NAND capacity already sold out. Key to its success is its 3D NAND technology, BiCS FLASH. As the inventor of NAND, KIOXIA advanced its technology through generations, reaching over 200 layers by 2023. Key innovations include CBA (CMOS directly Bonded to Array), which separately manufactures control circuits and memory arrays for better performance, and OPS (On Pitch Select Gate) to increase density. The company is now developing high-capacity packages like an 8TB solution stacking 32 dies. Looking beyond NAND, KIOXIA is exploring 3D DRAM with its OCTRAM technology, using oxide semiconductor transistors for ultra-low leakage to reduce power consumption. This fundamental research differs from HBM and represents a long-term bet to extend its 3D expertise from NAND into future DRAM architectures. KIOXIA's story highlights how technological assets and shifting market cycles can rapidly transform a company's fortunes. While questions remain about sustaining growth beyond the current AI boom, its resurgence demonstrates that in semiconductors, being down does not necessarily mean being out.

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18 Months, Over 50x Surge: KIOXIA's Epic Comeback

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

Stock Market Trends (June 23): Did SpaceX Peak at IPO? The company loses over $800 billion in market value in three days as a sharp divergence unfolds within the tech sector. SpaceX's post-IPO decline of over 20%, falling below its first-day close, reflects a swift market repricing. The catalyst is a clear shift in narrative from "AI platform potential" to concerns over rising capital costs, as its $8.57 billion IPO and subsequent $20 billion debt offering are earmarked for acquisitions and refinancing existing bridge loans rather than de-leveraging. While high-valuation tech stocks like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft faced pressure, Micron surged nearly 7% to a record high following a strategic supply deal with Anthropic for HBM and memory, highlighting robust, tangible demand in AI infrastructure. The broader market saw funds rotate into more defensive industrial and financial names. Macro factors included a dip in oil prices to a three-month low on news of a US-Iran framework deal, though logistical hurdles for resuming full Strait of Hormuz shipments remain. Key events ahead include Nvidia's shareholder meeting, Micron's earnings, and the May PCE inflation data. The latter will be crucial in determining whether the sell-off in high-valuation growth stocks, which appears to have just begun, will persist.

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Market Trends in U.S. Stocks (June 23): Peak at Listing? SpaceX Loses Over $800 Billion in Three Days, Tech Stocks Experience Severe Internal Divergence

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324 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.12Aggiornato il 2026.06.02

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