Variant合伙人:Memecoin,一种新的进入市场策略

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-03-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-26

Introduzione

Memecoin 日益流行,社区日益壮大,它们将成为 GTM 策略的一个可行组成部分。

原文作者:Li Jin,Variant 合伙人

原文编译:Luffy,Foresight News

加密世界中下一件大事可能是借助一种流行 Memecoin 开始的。

一种新兴的市场营销策略起源于一种正在获得采用和发展势头的 Memecoin。传统的 GTM(进入市场)包括首先构建产品,然后通过营销和 meme 围绕产品建立一个社区,而这种新策略是先围绕 Memecoin 形成一个充满活力的用户社区,然后构建一个包含该代币的产品。

Variant合伙人:Memecoin,一种新的进入市场策略

通过启动与流行的 Memecoin 原生集成的项目,新的应用程序 / 基础设施可以调动 Memecoin 的用户社区,他们可以从代币中体验到更多的效用。

这样的例子包括:

  • BONKbot 是 Solana 上的一款 Telegram 交易机器人,起源于 BONK 代币。这是一种 Solana Memecoin,于 2022 年底空投给用户。随后,一个独立团队推出了一款交易机器人,利用交易产生的部分费用来购买和销毁 BONK 代币,从而在经济上与代币持有者保持一致。BONKbot 的日交易量最近突破了 2 亿美元(相比之下,Base 的日交易量约为 2 亿美元)。

  • 这种策略也适用于基础设施项目。例如,SHIB 启动以太坊 Layer 2 Shibarium,它通过收取的交易费来销毁 SHIB 代币。通过将代币纳入 L2,这种策略激活了现有的持有者社区,以克服新 L2 的冷启动问题。

  • Berachain 是一个以熊为主题的 EVM 兼容区块链,于 1 月启动了测试网,其起源也是 NFT 类型的 meme。SmokeyTheBera 最初于 2021 年启动了一个名为 Bong Bears 的 NFT 项目,并随着时间的推移建立了一个社区,并将其发展成为一个活跃的开发者和用户群。 

鉴于顶级 Memecoin 社区的参与度和部落主义,我认为这种利用 Memecoin 实现 GTM 的策略将在整个 Web3 堆栈中越来越受欢迎。例如,对于任何构建加密消费者应用程序的人来说,为 Memecoin 添加实用性可以激活代币持有者,他们自然更倾向于寻找新的方式来利用他们的代币。短视频应用程序 Drakula 和预测市场游戏 Perl 都接受 DEGEN 付款,试图利用 DEGEN 持有者社区的势头(截至 3 月,钱包数量超过 44 K )。代币使用量的增加以及潜在的价值可能会推动良性循环,用户对代币及其集成应用程序的兴趣可能会增加。

我们也看到有项目朝着另一个方向发展,先从产品开始,然后推出一个与之 密切相关的 Memecoin,从而为项目吸引更多的用户兴趣。例如,与 Solana 上的去中心化交易所聚合器 Jupiter 于 2024 年 1 月推出了 WEN Memecoin,并将其空投到 100 多万个在 Jupiter 上交易额超过 5 美元的钱包中。作为第一个通过 Jupiter 的 LFG Launchpad 推出的代币,它也引起了人们对该平台的兴趣。

对于正在探索这种 GTM 策略的项目,需要考虑一些因素:不同 Memecoin 社区的分发潜力,Memecoin 的代币持有者和项目目标受众之间的互补性,以及生态系统中现有的整合和饱和程度(一旦某个 Memecoin 被 100 个应用程序接受,第 101 个应用程序是否会获得同样多的关注?)。

值得一提的是,以上所有内容对 Memecoin 本身都有明显的好处,并且 Memecoin 团队尝试激励和整合项目集成他们的代币是有意义的。

使用 Memecoin 作为 GTM 策略与其他涉及代币的 Web3 增长策略相似,包括向特定社区成员或竞争产品用户空投代币。这些策略通过区块链的开放数据变得可行,可以利用这些数据进行精细定位。该策略也可以比作 Web2 世界中的策略,从社区主导的增长(品牌培养客户群以增加口碑)到品牌合作(交叉传播互补用户群,如 Lyft 与 Delta 的合作)。但是,由于数据和系统孤立,链下合作难以执行,而加密货币可以实现无需许可的集成,任何开发人员都可以围绕 Memecoin 进行构建。代币持有者社区之间也有经济利益,他们希望看到自己的代币价值增长,这可能会促进对合作项目的更大接受度。

尽管许多人认为 Memecoin 交易是一种赌博或一种奇怪的金融娱乐形式,但它们日益流行,社区日益壮大,可能意味着它们将成为 GTM 策略的一个可行组成部分。对于用户来说,进步之处在于 Memecoin 允许任何人投资并拥有 GTM 战略、草根社区、互联网文化和社区货币的一部分。

Letture associate

After Missing the 20x, I've Found a 'Dumb' Method for AI Investing

**Missing the 20x Opportunity: A Simple 'Dumb' Approach to AI Investing** The AI boom, driving NVIDIA's revenue from $60B to $216B in two years, creates immense investment pressure. However, like the internet bubble of 2000, the largest AI opportunities likely lie ahead, perhaps after a correction. Instead of rushing in now or waiting paralyzed for a crash, the author proposes a third way: building a "knowledge warehouse" by systematically mapping the AI industry to be ready when opportunities arise. The core of the strategy is understanding AI's four-layer value chain: 1. **Compute Infrastructure (The "Engine"):** This foundational layer, where all money eventually flows, includes: a) **Chip Design:** NVIDIA's dominance via its CUDA ecosystem, b) **Chip Manufacturing/Packaging/Memory:** TSMC's near-monopoly in advanced manufacturing and SK Hynix's lead in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), c) **Optical Interconnects:** Essential for large-scale AI clusters (e.g., Lumentum, Coherent), d) **Cooling & Power:** Critical for high-density AI data centers (e.g., Vertiv), e) **Servers/Data Centers & Cloud Platforms:** The physical and virtual wholesale providers. 2. **Models & Tools (The "OS"):** The competitive layer of foundation models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, xAI), now generating real revenue. A key shift is the center of gravity moving from **Training** models to **Inference** (running models), which demands different chip characteristics and could challenge NVIDIA's monopoly. 3. **Middleware & Platform ("The Glue"):** Connects models and applications (e.g., Scale AI, Hugging Face). This layer could explode if applications take off. 4. **Vertical Applications ("The Cash Register"):** Where AI meets end-users (e.g., enterprise AI, coding tools, medical AI, robotics). A critical cross-cutting constraint is **Energy**, as AI's massive power consumption drives investment in nuclear and other energy infrastructure. The author identifies four key questions for further research: 1) How will the shift from Training to Inference reshape the competitive landscape? 2) With tech giants spending over $600B on capex, where is the ROI from AI applications? 3) What are the under-the-radar opportunities in the "second" and "third" circles of the value chain (e.g., cooling, specialty foundries)? 4) How will geopolitics (e.g., U.S.-China chip restrictions) bifurcate the supply chain? The conclusion is that missed opportunities stem from insufficient research, not slow timing. By methodically studying each layer—its business models, competition, and valuations—investors can build the "killer intuition" needed to act decisively when the market presents its chance.

marsbit16 min fa

After Missing the 20x, I've Found a 'Dumb' Method for AI Investing

marsbit16 min fa

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

"Rented Conviction: How Much of Bitcoin ETF Flows Is Real Money" The weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are often interpreted as a gauge of institutional belief. However, a significant portion of this activity is driven by a hidden arbitrage trade, not directional conviction. The core mechanism is a cash-and-carry arbitrage: traders buy spot Bitcoin (often via ETFs) while simultaneously shorting CME futures to lock in the price difference, or "basis." This delta-neutral trade is essentially an interest rate play. In weekly data, about half the fluctuation in ETF flows can be explained by new short positions added by leveraged funds (hedge funds), with a correlation of 0.70. Bitcoin's price movement in a given week shows no statistical power in predicting these flows. While this arbitrage trade drives weekly *volatility*, it is not the main component of the cumulative *stock*. Of the total ~$55 billion in net ETF inflows, the current net arbitrage position is only about $1 billion. The remainder is steady, directional buying averaging ~$400 million per week, which constitutes the vast majority of the accumulated "mountain" over two years. Thus, ETF flow data overstates the *volatility* of conviction, not its *level*. This arbitrage trade has been unwinding for nearly two years. Leveraged fund short positions peaked at ~$14 billion in late 2024 and have since declined to ~$4.5 billion. When the basis compresses to unprofitable levels, ETF inflows and short positions retreat together. Recent outflows should not be mistaken for a loss of faith but rather the routine unwinding of this rate trade. For Ethereum ETFs, the pattern is weaker. Accounting for staking yield makes the basis often negative, so neither strong conviction buying nor robust arbitrage supports its flows. To interpret ETF flows correctly, monitor the CME basis versus T-bill rates and leveraged fund net shorts. They reveal how much of the next "demand" headline is real. The real, patient buy-and-hold demand is what constitutes the enduring bulk of ETF assets.

marsbit1 h fa

Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Inflows Is Real Money?

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片