下周必关注 | Sepolia测试网将执行Dencun升级;JUP定于1月31日TGE(1.29-2.4)

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-01-28Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-01-28

Introduzione

Frame将于1月31日上线主网并发币,同时将开启第二轮空投活动。

下周必关注 | Sepolia测试网将执行Dencun升级;JUP定于1月31日TGE(1.29-2.4)

下周重点预告 

谷歌加密货币相关广告政策将于 1 月 29 日进行修订

Sepolia 测试网预计将于 1 月 30 日执行 Dencun 升级

Starknet 将于 1 月 30 日在 Goerli 测试网进行压力测试

Jupiter 联创:JUP 的 TGE 时间已确定为 1 月 31 日

Argent 宣布将于 1 月 31 日起逐渐停止对 zksync Era 的支持,专注于 Starknet

UniSat:将遵循 Jubilee 升级,白皮书将于 1 月 31 日发布

Frame:将于 1 月 31 日开启第二轮活动

1 月 29 日至 2 月 4 日,业界更多值得关注的事件如下:

1 月 29 日

谷歌加密货币相关广告政策将于 1 月 29 日进行修订,或涵盖比特币 ETF 广告

Odaily星球日报讯 下周一,谷歌将更新其政策,允许某些加密货币产品在其主要搜索引擎上投放广告。比特币 ETF 似乎符合标准,引发了加密行业人士的猜测。据悉,谷歌的加密货币及相关广告政策将于 1 月 29 日进行修订,以允许“针对美国提供加密货币信托的广告商”投放广告。

因为谷歌在搜索方面高交易处理能力,加密分析师对比特币 ETF 的潜在流入持乐观态度。根据 DemandSage 最近的数据,谷歌每天处理 85.5 亿次搜索。然而值得一提的是,谷歌并未明确指出在“加密货币信托”广告中允许的产品。(Cointelegraph)

Huobi Korea 将于 1 月 29 日终止虚拟资产交易服务,但将继续支持提现

Odaily星球日报讯 火币韩国(Huobi Korea)计划于 2024 年 1 月 29 日终止虚拟资产交易服务,同时将继续支持客户提取资产(韩元和虚拟资产),直到客户资产全部完成提现。

dYdX 基金会:dYdX Chain v3.0 升级投票已获通过,预计将于 1 月 29 日执行

Odaily星球日报讯 据官方消息,dYdX 基金会宣布 dYdX Chain 协议软件升级到 V 3.0 的投票已获通过,本次投票率为 88.5% ,其中赞成票比率为 98.9% ,后续升级预计会在 UTC 时间 2024 年 1 月 29 日 17: 46 左右区块 7, 147, 832 执行,dYdX 基金会提醒验证者需要为本次升级做好相应准备。

1 月 30 日 

VanEck 将关闭并清算比特币策略 ETF 产品,股东需在 1 月 30 日前售出

Odaily星球日报讯 VanEck 宣布计划关闭并清算旗下一只 VanEck ETF 产品。2023 年 1 月 16 日,VanEck ETF Trust 的董事会批准了以下基金的清算和解散:VanEck 比特币策略 ETF(XBTF),交易平台为 CBOE。

该基金的股东可在 2024 年 1 月 30 日市场收盘前在基金的上市交易所出售其股份(可能会产生经纪商-交易商的交易费用)。该基金的股份将在 2024 年 1 月 30 日市场收盘后不再在上市交易所交易,并随后将被摘牌。

持有该基金股份的股东将在基金清算日(预计在 2024 年 2 月 6 日或之前)收到等于其股份净资产价值的现金清算分配。清算所得款项预计将在 2024 年 2 月 6 日或之前发送给股东。(Businesswire)

Sepolia 测试网预计将于 1 月 30 日执行 Dencun 升级

Odaily星球日报讯 以太坊基金会已发布了关于在 Sepolia 和 Holesky 测试网上执行 Dencun 升级的公告。根据规划,Sepolia 的升级预期时间为 UTC 时间 1 月 30 日 22: 51: 12 (北京时间 1 月 31 日 06: 51: 12),Holesky 的升级预期时间为 UTC 时间 2 月 7 日 11: 34: 24 (北京时间 2 月 7 日 19: 34: 24)。

若 Sepolia 和 Holesky 升级顺利,下一步便是在以太坊主网上激活 Dencun 升级。

Starknet 将于 1 月 30 日在 Goerli 测试网进行压力测试

Odaily星球日报讯 Starknet 社区成员@Starknet_OG 在 X 平台发文表示,Starknet 计划将于北京时间 1 月 30 日 17: 00 在 Goerli 测试网上进行压力测试,测试将持续数小时,届时可能造成 Starknet Goerli 测试网拥堵,导致测试网上交易执行前的长时间等待。其他网络(包括主网和 Sepolia 测试网)将不受影响。

SubQuery 宣布拟于 1 月 30 日启动公开代币销售并在 Base 上推出主网

Odaily星球日报讯 数据索引基础设施 SubQuery 宣布拟于 2024 年 1 月 30 日启动公开代币销售,之后将在 Coinbase 构建的二层网络 Base 上推出 SubQuery Network 主网并计划在三月份在 Base 链上推出完整 RPC 支持,旨在推动 SubQuery 实现区块链技术未来去中心化。SubQuery 表示,通过在 Base 上构建,SubQuery 将获得 Coinbase 产品集成、法币入口和工具,同时其用户也将能在 SubQuery 的去中心化基础设施网络进行交互。 

Starknet 衍生品交易协议 ZKX 宣布将于 1 月 30 日上线主网

Odaily星球日报讯 Starknet 衍生品交易协议 ZKX 宣布将于 1 月 30 日上线主网,参与 OG Trade Clans 和社区活动的用户将有机会获得第二阶段空投。 

Atomicals 将于 1 月 30 日进行节点升级,开发者需升级至 1.3.8.0 版本

Odaily星球日报讯 Atomicals 于 X 平台表示将于 1 月 30 日进行节点升级(区块高度 828128),开发者需立即升级至 1.3.8.0 版本,无需重新同步。

1 月 31 日 

币安:鼓励用户在 2024 年 1 月 31 日之前将卢布兑换成其他货币

Odaily星球日报讯 币安发布公告,鼓励用户在 2024 年 1 月 31 日之前将卢布兑换成其他货币。自 2024 年 2 月 1 日 08: 00 (UTC)起,用户币安账户中剩余的 RUB 余额将根据 xe.com 的实时汇率自动转换为 FDUSD。

Binance Labs 将第七季 MVB 加速器计划申请截止日期延长至 1 月 31 日

Odaily星球日报讯 Binance Labs Fund 在 X 平台发文表示,第七季 MVB 加速器计划申请截止日期从 1 月 15 日延长至 1 月 31 日。

Jupiter 联创:JUP 的 TGE 时间已确定为 1 月 31 日

Odaily星球日报讯 Jupiter 联合创始人 Meow 于 X 平台宣布,JUP 的 TGE 时间已正式确定为美东时间 1 月 31 日 10: 00 (北京时间 23: 00)。

Argent 宣布将于 1 月 31 日起逐渐停止对 zksync Era 的支持,专注于 Starknet

Odaily星球日报讯 钱包服务商 Argent 在一份发给用户的公开信中表示,经过六个月的 alpha 阶段测试以及对用户反馈的仔细考虑,已决定停止对 zksync Era 的支持,专注于 Starknet。

Argent 表示:“我们相信 Starknet 的巨大潜力,因此希望优先开发用于支持其生态增长的产品。自 2024 年 1 月 31 日开始,我们将开始逐步减少对 zkSync Era 的支持,且不会再继续为其构建新功能,虽然这并不会影响用户的账户安全性,但用户将会感知到明显的性能下降,因为我们将会削减后端的基础设施服务。”

Argent 最后表示:“我们强烈建议用户尽快将其 zkSync Era 上的资产从 Argent 转移到另一个支持 zkSync Era 钱包,例如 Metamask,如果用户仍想通过 Argent 保存资产,可以使用 LayerSwap 跨链桥将它们桥接至 Starknet 或以太坊主网。”

UniSat:将遵循 Jubilee 升级,白皮书将于 1 月 31 日发布

Odaily星球日报讯 UniSat 于 X 平台发文表示,将遵循 Ordinals Jubilee(禧年)升级,以确保 BRC-20 仍在 Ordinals 上运行,而不是分裂成单独的协议。此外 UniSat 宣布白皮书将于 1 月 31 日发布并表示“这可能是自去年 2 月以来我们能够为 BRC-20、Ordinals、比特币和社区中的每个人提供的最重要的礼物。”

Frame:将于 1 月 31 日开启第二轮活动

Odaily星球日报讯 Frame 于 X 平台发文表示,将于明年 1 月 31 日开启第二轮活动,将聚焦于创作者、开发者和网络用户。

此前消息,Frame 主网与代币将于 2024 年 1 月 31 日同时推出,FRAME 代币在下一阶段开启前不可转移。此外,Frame 宣布完成初始融资,Electric Capital 和社区成员领投,天使投资人和顾问包括 dingaling、 9 GAG CEO 陈展程、Azuki 项目创始人 Zagabond 等。 

Solana 链 Meme 项目 DragonEgg 即将开启空投, 1 月 31 日开放申领

Odaily星球日报讯 Solana 链 Meme 项目 DragonEgg 即将开启空投,总供应量 60% 的 DGE(龙蛋) 将空投至上百万个 Solana 钱包地址,空投申领将于 1 月 31 日 10: 00 UTC-5 (1 月 31 日 23: 00 UTC+ 8)开放,持续至 2 月 8 日。申请者可于 1 月 31 日登陆网站 degfinance.org 进行申领。

区块链基因公司 LunaDNA 将于 1 月 31 日停止运营,曾募集 660 万美元资金

Odaily星球日报讯 区块链基因公司 LunaDNA 宣布将于 1 月 31 日停止运营,该公司于 2017 年推出并募集到 200 万美元种子轮融资,之后又在 2019 年完成 460 万美元融资,Arch Venture Partners、Bain Capital Ventures、F-Prime Capital、Illumina Ventures 和 Osage University Partners 等参投,分析认为 LunaDNA 的倒闭是对使用区块链和加密货币来协调基因组和个人健康数据共享想法的一次打击。(Genomeweb)

固定利率借贷协议 Yield Protocol 宣布将于 1 月 31 日结束官方支持

Odaily星球日报讯 曾获 Paradigm 投资的固定利率借贷协议 Yield Protocol 官方表示,提醒用户关闭在该协议的头寸, 1 月 31 日起将结束官方支持。  

2 月 1 日

OKX:将于 2 月 1 日前以 USDT 形式空投补偿本周受 OKB 异常波动影响用户

Odaily星球日报讯 据官方消息,OKX 针对本周 OKB 的异常波动宣布已调整相关风险参数,并将对受到影响且符合资格的用户进行空投,包括: 

-包含 OKB 杠杆交易/杠杆仓位;

-以 OKB 作为抵押物的活期质押借币;

-包含 OKB 跨币种保证金账户。

OKX 将在 2 月 1 日之前以 USDT 形式空投至以上用户的资金账户。

HashKey Exchange 发布子账号和 API Key 管理新规并拟于 2 月 1 日生效

Odaily星球日报讯 HashKey Exchange 官方发布子账号和 API Key 的管理规则公告,用户可申请创建的子账号数量、API Key 数量将受其用户类型和等级的限制。

据悉,相关规则的生效日期为 2024/2/1 00: 00: 00(UTC+ 8)。 

Jupiter LFG Launchpad Beta 版上线,将于 2 月 1 日起批准新项目加入 Launchpad

Odaily星球日报讯 Jupiter 创始人 Meow 在 X 平台宣布推出 Jupiter LFG Launchpad Beta 版本,并将推出由 Ovols 发行的 Meme 币以及平台币 JUP。

Ovols 和 Jupiter 将分别向 LFG Launchpad 提供 1 %的代币,即将成立的 JUP DAO 将获得 75 %,团队获得 25 %。从 2 月 1 日起,Jupiter DAO 将批准新项目加入 Launchpad。

KyberSwap 公布赔偿计划细则,将从 2 月 1 日开始向受损用户发放资金

Odaily星球日报讯 跨链 DEX 项目 Kyber Network 已于近日启动 KyberSwap Treasury Grant 计划,以推进对去年 11 月份因安全事件受损客户进行赔偿,计划于 2024 年 2 月 1 日分发资金(以美元稳定币形式),受影响用户需在 2024 年 1 月 11 日至 1 月 23 日期间提交申请并完成 KYC 以获得赔偿。

隐私区块链 Dusk 将于 2 月 1 日上线质押功能,激励达 250 万枚 DUSK

Odaily星球日报讯 隐私区块链 Dusk 于 X 平台发文表示,将于 2 月 1 日上线质押功能,激励达 250 万枚 DUSK。2 月 15 日,激励测试网 ITN 将启动,为节点运行者提供空投和 POAP,主网计划于三月/四月上线。 

Gnosis Chain:Chiado 测试网将于 2 月 1 日进行硬分叉升级

Odaily星球日报讯 据官方消息,公链项目 Gnosis Chain 表示,其 Chiado 测试网将于 2024 年 2 月 1 日 2: 15: 40 进行硬分叉升级,Slot: 8265728 ,Epoch: 516608 。此次升级最重要的功能是支持 blob(EIP - 4844 Proto-Danksharding),这将使L2链能够扩展并提供更便宜的数据层。 

SKALE Chain Pricing 在主网上线,首次支付将于 2 月 1 日进行

Odaily星球日报讯 据官方消息,以太坊侧链 SKALE 宣布 SKALE Chain Pricing 已在主网上线,首次支付将于 2 月 1 日进行。

SKALE Chain Pricing 是 SKALE 经济模式转型三大战略阶段中的第二个阶段。SKALE 不收取终端用户 Gas 费,通过对链的使用收取费用来支付验证节点和质押者。该阶段旨在让 SKALE 链的定价达到验证器硬件盈利的水平,并设置目标负载价格,即在网络负载为 70% 的情况下,每条链每年支付价值 100 万美元的 SKL 代币,采用浮动定价机制。

2 月 2 日

ETHGlobal 公布 2024 年黑客松时间表,Circuit Breaker 将于 2 月 2 日进行

Odaily星球日报讯 ETHGlobal 官方公布 2024 年时间表,宣布将举办 20 场黑客松活动,包括 LFGHO(1 月 12 日-1 月 24 日)、Circuit Breaker(2 月 2 日-21 日)、Pragma Denver(2 月 28 日)、Pragma London(3 月 14 日)、ETHGlobal London(3 月 15 日-17 日)、Scaling Ethereum 2024 (4 月 5 日-26 日)、Pragma Sydney(5 月 2 日)、ETHGlobal Sydney(5 月 3 日-5 日)、Pragma Brussels(7 月 11 日)、ETHGlobal Brussels(7 月 12 日-14 日)、ETHOnline 2024 (8 月 23 日-9 月 13 日)、ETHGlobal Singapore(9 月 20 日-22 日)、Pragma San Francisco(10 月 15 日-17 日)、ETHGlobal San Francisco(10 月 18 日-20 日)、ETHGlobal Devcon 2024 (暂定 11 月)以及其他 5 场额外活动。

CoinList 将于 2 月 2 日开启L1区块链 Nibiru 代币 NIBI 社区销售

Odaily星球日报讯 L1区块链 Nibiru 将于北京时间 2 月 2 日 2: 00 在 CoinList 上开启 NIBI 代币社区销售。

此次社区销售的代币供应量为 6000 万枚 NIBI 代币(占总供应量的 4% );价格 0.05 美元, 2 月 26 日左右解锁 10% 的代币,随后 12 个月线性解锁;初始购买限额最低 50 美元,最高 2000 美元(仅限 USDT/USDC)。

Solana 生态协议 Drift 在代币发布前推出积分奖励计划,首次积分发放时间为 2 月 2 日

Odaily星球日报讯 基于 Solana 区块链的永续期货交易平台 Drift Protocol 宣布了一项针对用户的奖励计划“Drift Points”,本次计划已于今日开始,并于三月结束,积分将每周发放一次,首次发放时间定于 2 月 2 日。 Drift Protocol 联合创始人 Cindy Leow 并表示,Drift 代币计划将在今年 3 月份积分计划结束后不久推出,但她拒绝评论如何根据 Drift 积分向用户空投代币,仅透露“两者之间会有相关性。”

GameStop 将于 2 月 2 日停止 NFT 市场运营

Odaily星球日报讯 电子游戏及相关产品零售商 GameStop 表示,由于加密货币领域监管的持续不确定性,已决定关闭 NFT 市场,并将从 2 月 2 日起停止运营。(Decrypt) 

2 月 3 日

暂无 

2 月 4 日

Lido 将不再支持 SOL 质押, 2 月 4 日结束前端支持 

Odaily星球日报讯 据官方消息,Lido 宣布将不再支持 SOL 质押,并于 10 月 16 日开始不再支持新的 SOL 质押,节点运营商将从 11 月 17 日开始退出。2024 年 2 月 4 日开始,Solana 前端支持的 Lido 将结束,此后,取消质押将只能通过命令行界面(CLI)进行。Lido 表示,stSOL 持有者在此期间仍可获得质押奖励。 

其他(具体时间未定)

韩国政府将重新审查原定于明年 1 月开始的虚拟资产征税计划

Odaily星球日报讯 韩国政府将全面重新审查计划于明年 1 月开始对虚拟资产征税的时间表。韩国政府曾于 2022 年 7 月向国会提交税制改革计划,以推动对虚拟资产征税;同年晚些时候,韩国国会将与金融投资所得税一起开征的税收推迟至 2025 年 1 月。 

税务部长郑正勋在接受采访时表示:“计划在 1 月底或 2 月初向国会提交该法案,并解释其必要性和紧迫性。我们希望尽量在选举之前,战略与财务委员会和国会在 2 月份召开会议时能够对其进行处理。”(News 1)

比特币 Layer 2 网络 Bitfinity 完成总计 700 万美元融资,计划本月晚些时候或 2 月初上线主网

Odaily星球日报讯 比特币 Layer 2 网络 Bitfinity 宣布以 1.3 亿美元估值完成总计 700 万美元融资,本轮融资由 Polychain Capital、ParaFi Capital、Warburg Serres、Dokia Capital 和 Draft Ventures 等参投,据悉这笔资金分两部分实现,分别是 2021 年约 100 万美元的种子轮和去年 6 月完成的另一轮,两轮都是代币融资。目前 Bitfinity 正处于测试网阶段,计划在本月晚些时候或 2 月初推出主网。(TheBlock)

Puffer Finance:将于下周开放代币质押,用户可获 EigenLayer 积分奖励

Odaily星球日报讯 LSD 协议 Puffer Finance 在 X 平台发文表示,其将于下周开放质押 ETH、stETH、USDT 和 USDC,用户同时获得 Puffer 及 EigenLayer 积分奖励。

TreasureDAO:将于下周公布 Treasure Chain Litepaper

Odaily星球日报讯 TreasureDAO 团队成员 Sambino 在 Discord 社区透露,TreasureDAO 将于下周公布 Treasure Chain Litepaper。 

Letture associate

Two Legends Lost in Three Days: Is Google's AI Talent Dam Cracking?

In three days, Google lost two AI legends. On June 18, Noam Shazeer, co-author of the seminal "Attention is All You Need" paper and Gemini co-lead, left for OpenAI. Just 48 hours later, John Jumper, 2024 Nobel laureate and AlphaFold lead, departed DeepMind for Anthropic. This follows Andrej Karpathy joining Anthropic in May. These moves highlight a structural trend: top AI talent is concentrating at mission-driven, pre-IPO firms like OpenAI and Anthropic, while Google becomes a primary source. The exodus stems from a core mission mismatch. Google's ad-centric model often subordinates AI research to product and revenue goals, creating friction for pioneers like Shazeer, who returned in 2024 only to leave again. In contrast, OpenAI and Anthropic offer singular focus on pushing AI boundaries, whether towards AGI or safety-aligned models, which deeply appeals to top researchers like Jumper. Financial incentives amplify the pull. With both OpenAI and Anthropic nearing IPO, employees stand to gain immensely from equity, an upside Google's mature stock cannot match. Furthermore, the 2023 merger of Google Brain and DeepMind, intended to consolidate strength, has instead created cultural tension and slowed the path from research to product, as evidenced by Gemini's pace. This talent redistribution is reshaping the AI landscape. While Google retains vast data and compute resources, its true crisis is the quiet, continuous loss of the people who define the field's future. The real moat in AI is not infrastructure, but the concentration of brilliant minds—a battle Google is currently losing.

marsbit15 min fa

Two Legends Lost in Three Days: Is Google's AI Talent Dam Cracking?

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Behind the AI Report Card, Lies a Chinese 'Exam Setter'

Beyond the familiar performance charts like MMLU-Pro and MMMU, which major AI models strive to ace, stands a key "examiner": Chinese-Canadian researcher Wenhu Chen. An assistant professor at the University of Waterloo and founder of TIGERLab, Chen addresses the crucial need for more rigorous AI evaluation. As models like GPT-4 began scoring near-perfect results on older benchmarks like MMLU, it became difficult to distinguish their true capabilities. In response, Chen introduced MMLU-Pro in 2024, featuring harder, more reasoning-focused questions with more answer choices, successfully reintroducing meaningful performance gaps. His work extends to multi-modal evaluation with MMMU and its enhanced version, MMMU-Pro. These benchmarks test a model's ability to understand and reason with complex information from images, charts, and text across diverse academic subjects, exposing the significant challenges even top models face in genuine comprehension. Chen's background in complex QA, table reasoning, and his experience at Google DeepMind on projects like Gemini inform his approach. He understands that effective benchmarks must anticipate how models might "cheat" by memorizing data or avoiding visual analysis. His lab also actively researches video understanding and generation models (e.g., UniVideo, Vamba), ensuring his evaluation work is grounded in practical model-building challenges. Now at Meta's Super Intelligence Lab, Chen continues his focus on multi-modal data and evaluation, representing the deep yet often unseen contributions of Chinese talent in shaping the fundamental tools of the AI industry.

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Behind the AI Report Card, Lies a Chinese 'Exam Setter'

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Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: On Cursor's $60 Billion Sale Many aspiring founders see massive exits like Cursor's $60B sale and wonder why they can't achieve the same, often concluding opportunities are exhausted. But great companies aren't built in obvious, crowded spaces. Cursor, like Stripe, Figma, and Shopify before it, started with a non-consensus belief about the future. Before ChatGPT, they believed AI would transform knowledge work. They focused on a genuinely exciting domain, became their own customer, and obsessed over power users. Their journey involved years of "glass-chewing" effort before the market was ready. The pattern is consistent: identify a long-term technological shift, find a missed entry point, and execute for years before the trend becomes obvious. First-generation products (PayPal, Adobe, Amazon) prove a market exists. Second-generation winners (Stripe, Figma, Shopify) rebuild that market around new insights, technology, or changing customer behaviors. Founders must identify their phase in the cycle. Early entrants like Coinbase or Cursor focus on making new technology usable for power users. Later entrants find the "yin" to the established "yang"—the blind spots incumbents miss as they grow distant from individual users. The key is deep market immersion. Use every product in your space. Talk to users. Build an audience. Stop looking for ideas and start *seeing* them everywhere. Then, choose one. The idea must offer a 10x improvement or solve a "hair-on-fire" pain point—something severe enough that users are already crafting workarounds. When building, avoid feature bloat. Ask: why would someone switch? Great startups rarely force new behaviors; they improve familiar workflows with drastically lower friction (e.g., Cursor forked VS Code instead of creating a new editor). Distribution is the underestimated moat. Before product-market fit, achieve distribution-market fit. How do customers discover new tools? Founders like those at Airbnb, Stripe, and Cursor did unscalable, manual work to recruit early users. The final, unteachable ingredient is resilience. Cursor built for years pre-market, faced rejection, and persisted. So did Airbnb, Nvidia, and Rain (which launched post-FTX collapse). The lesson isn't that these founders were smarter, but that they stayed in the game long enough for their insights to compound. Framework: Spot technological cycles. Cultivate unique insight. Obsess over your market. Talk to customers. Find a hair-on-fire problem. Build the simplest wedge. Win your distribution channel. Above all, don't quit when it gets hard. Most people won't do these things consistently. The few who do build the next generation of great companies. Go build.

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Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

marsbit30 min fa

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619): Market Insights & Analysis This weekly digest curates in-depth analysis often lost in the information flow, focusing on key insights across macro trends, investment, and technology. **Macro & Geopolitics:** With the Strait of Hormuz reopening and military conflict shifting to negotiation, markets are pivoting from "war shock" to "supply restoration." Trades include shorting crude risk premiums, longing airlines/tourism, Asian energy importers, and bond duration, while shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being repriced. **Investment & VC:** Ray Dalio advises against betting on concentrated AI giants dominating indices, advocating for diversified portfolios of high-quality, low-correlation assets instead. Analysis covers the 4-year crypto cycle, predicting the core surviving product by 2029 will be asset trading markets. Current BTC metrics suggest a potential bottoming zone, presenting a patient accumulation window. SpaceX's high-profile IPO at a $2.1T valuation faces scrutiny over fundamentals, with key watchpoints being its likely inclusion in the Nasdaq index and Q2 earnings. Concerns are raised about potential "gamma squeeze" and systemic risks if its narrative-driven valuation gets amplified by passive index funds. Robinhood (HOOD) is noted for breaking its high correlation with crypto, bolstered by its stock trading and new underwriting business. **Web3 & AI:** A warning highlights ~$1.8T in off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure commitments (purchase commitments, leases) as a potential systemic risk if AI monetization lags. AI models are being used for World Cup predictions, adding a new layer for betting markets. A cost breakdown of a $20 AI subscription reveals the supply chain from model companies to cloud, GPUs, and power. **Prediction Markets:** The emergence of prediction market "concept stocks" is noted, with Robinhood developing its own platform, Rothera, signaling a shift from market competition to a "channel war" for user access. **CeFi & DeFi:** The SpaceX IPO tested perpetual contract mechanisms for pre-IPO assets, highlighting challenges in handling corporate actions like stock splits on-chain. The de-pegging of STRC (Strategy's preferred share) to ~$89 reflects market concerns over MicroStrategy's capital structure and BTC-backed leverage model. BlackRock's covered-call Bitcoin ETF (BITA) offers yield but caps upside, appealing to yield-seeking institutions. **Ethereum:** An opinion piece argues Ethereum's core strength is its vast developer community and composability, solidifying its role as the default operating system for the financial internet. **Weekly Hot Topics:** Include the US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Fed's hawkish hold, Anthropic restricting model access, SpaceX acquiring Cursor, and a humorous stock surge for "Liuliumei" due to its "LLM" ticker.

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Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

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Alliance's Co-Founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written on the Occasion of Cursor's $60 Billion Sale

In this letter to entrepreneurs, Alliance reflects on the success of Cursor's $60 billion sale to Elon Musk, using it as a case study to counter the misconception that opportunities in crowded fields like AI or crypto are exhausted. The piece argues that great companies like Cursor, Stripe, Figma, and Shopify are not built by geniuses with perfect ideas, but by founders who start with a non-consensus belief about the future and build for years before that future becomes obvious to everyone. They identify long-term shifts, find overlooked entry points, and execute relentlessly. The framework for success involves: 1. **Identifying your place in the technology cycle**: Early-stage opportunities focus on making new tech usable for power users (e.g., Coinbase, Cursor). Later-stage opportunities involve finding the "yin" to an existing "yang"—the blind spots of first-generation players (e.g., Stripe vs. PayPal, Figma vs. Adobe). 2. **Cultivating unique insights**: Immerse yourself deeply in the market. Use every product, talk to users, and build an audience. Insights will emerge naturally from deep engagement. 3. **Finding a "hair-on-fire" problem**: Look for a 10x improvement or a severe, urgent pain point. The strongest signal is people already building clumsy workarounds. 4. **Building a focused MVP**: Don't just add features because you can. Ask why users would abandon their current tool for yours. The best startups rarely force new behaviors; they improve familiar workflows with drastically lower friction. 5. **Winning a distribution channel**: Distribution is often the moat. Before product-market fit, achieve channel-market fit. Find where your customers are and build an engine to reach them, even through unscalable, manual efforts initially. 6. **Persistence**: The final, unteachable ingredient is resilience. Success stories like Cursor, Airbnb, and Nvidia involved years of grinding, rejection, and perseverance when the path forward seemed unclear. The conclusion is that there is no secret. Most people fail to consistently execute these steps over the long term. The few who do build the companies that define the next era. The world is yours to create.

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Alliance's Co-Founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written on the Occasion of Cursor's $60 Billion Sale

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