SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

Odaily星球日报2024-01-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2024-01-12 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

美国Bitcoin现货ETF创造了纪录，首日交易量达46亿美元，以Grayscale的GBTC为首，交易量达21亿美元，其次是Blackrock的IBIT，交易量也有10亿美元，Bloomberg的ETF分析师Eric Balchunas称其“无疑是ETF历史上最大规模的首个交易日”。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

美国 Bitcoin 现货 ETF 创造了纪录，首日交易量达 46 亿美元，以 Grayscale 的 GBTC 为首，交易量达 21 亿美元，其次是 Blackrock 的 IBIT，交易量也有 10 亿美元，Bloomberg 的 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 称其“无疑是 ETF 历史上最大规模的首个交易日”， 11 只现货 ETF 共有超过 70 万笔个人交易，是 Nasdaq QQQ 交易数量的两倍，意味著有大量小规模的投资者参与进来。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

然而，没有伴随著警告就不是加密货币新闻了，来自多个消息来源的报导称，部分券商和银行不太愿意推广或允许这些 ETF 的交易，其中 Vanguard 明确表示不会在其平台提供这些产品，理由是与其核心服务“不一致”。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

尽管如此，大门已被打开，一个“以美元结算”的 Bitcoin 投资标的为 TradFi 投资者创造了一个无须交割的市场，他们可以不涉足区块链，留在既有的法币框架内，对于许多投资者和机构来说，现在他们可以将 BTC（以及很快会加入 ETH）作为一种普通的资产类别来交易，不必就加密货币的意义进行令人厌烦且通常是意识形态的争论。不意外地，在短短 24 小时内，就有消息称发行机构开始申请以备兑看涨期权为策略的 ETF，这应该会迅速扩散至其他各种涉及期权和杠杆的“主动管理 ETF”策略，这些策略在 TradFi 领域已经非常普遍。对于加密货币参与者来说， 2024 年无疑将是令人兴奋的一年，特别是在衍生品领域。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

回到 TradFi 领域，昨天公布的美国核心 CPI 数据略高于市场预测（0.31% vs 0.26% ），主要由居高不下的二手车价格、服装、核心服务和业主等价租金所推动，食品和能源价格分别上涨 0.2% 和 0.4% ，推高整体 CPI 环比上涨 0.3% 。从长期来看，核心 CPI 的低点在过去 6 个月大部分时间里都在年化 3-4% 的水平徘徊，仍远高于美联储的长期目标，主要受到住房和非住房服务业通胀的强力支撑。

虽然这些数据不太可能改变市场对美联储的前景看法，但这可能会限制鸽派官员在不偏离整体路线太远的情况下发声的能力， 3 月降息机率仍稳定保持在 65-70% 左右，市场仍预计 2024 年底前会降息整整 150 个基点。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

美联储著名的鹰派官员 Mester 表示，“我认为 3 月降息可能为时过早，我们需要看到更多证据”，由于这番言论并不强硬，市场实际上将其视为偏向鸽派的信息，她先前在 12 月 FOMC 会议后曾指出，市场对于美联储降息的定价已经过于超前，因此昨天的言论被视为往接受即将降息前进了一小步，债券收益率牛陡了 6 个基点左右， 2 年期收益率下跌 9 个基点，回到 4.25% 的水平。

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

SignalPlus宏观研报(20240112)：BTC现货ETF首日交易量高达46亿美元

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