SignalPlus宏观研报:BTC保持在3万美元以上,蓝筹DeFi出现大幅反弹

区块律动Published on 2023-06-26Last updated on 2023-06-27

Abstract

牛市情绪仍在继续,一些蓝筹 DeFi 也出现爆炸性的追赶涨势(AAVE +25%、SNX + 16%,Uniswap +11% 和 CRV +8%)

原文标题:《SignalPlus 宏观研报 (20230626) 》
原文来源:SignalPlus 華語







随著交易员持续在流动性较低的夏季来临之际减低风险敞口,TradFi 市场在进入周末前面临压力,S&P 500 指数下跌 0.8%,每个板块都出现跌势,创下该指数自 3 月份以来最差的每周表现(-1.4%),不过此前该指数已经连续上涨了 5 周,出现回调也是迟早的事。在数据方面,美国和欧洲的制造业 PMI 数据均令人失望,而英国央行在上周四加息 50 个基点,清楚地提醒了人们欧洲仍在努力应对通胀的阻力。






市场已经有所预期的财政部 TGA 流动性抽取到目前为止都非常有序地进行,这要归功于审慎地使用 RRP(逆回购)来重新建立现金部位,而不是直接地抽取流动性,财政部目前的现金余额为 2,920 亿美元,完全符合华尔街的预测,来源是 RRP 和储备余额大约各占一半;此外,自 3 月份高点以来,美联储的贴现窗口和 BTFP 使用额度一直保持稳定,显示区域性银行的资产负债表没有过多的流动。






有趣的是,Yellen 部长在接受采访时表示,利率上升和近期银行业的动荡可能会导致今年下半年出现更多银行合并,因为实力较弱的机构面临著挽留存款的成本上升、获利能力降低的困境,虽然美国区域性银行危机看似已成为一个遥远的记忆,但如果 Yellen 部长的预测为真,意味著金融股最早将在本季度出现盈利不如预期的情况。


随著上半年接近尾声,夏天淡季即将到来,即使对经济衰退的呼吁和担忧已经少了许多,不过全球已开发市场的收益率曲线仍已悄然重新倒挂至接近历史低点。虽然债券和股票投资者目前可能陷入不确定该乐观或者悲观的矛盾心理,但他们一致期待的是一个刚好的荣景,也就是美联储完全控制住通胀,且任何可能的经济衰退都只是无害的程度,此外,AI 的持续创新预计也将带来一个前所未见的生产力高速增长的时代。在可预见的未来,如果要改变投资者的现状和当前的观点,可能需要一个强而有力的催化剂。






在加密货币方面,牛市情绪仍在继续,BTC 保持在 3 万美元上方并引领市场走高,周末一些蓝筹 DeFi 代币也出现爆炸性的追赶涨势(AAVE +25%、SNX + 16%,Uniswap +11% 和 CRV +8%)。与近年相比,次级市场的流动性仍然较为薄弱,且长期持有者即使在目前的价格水平也不太可能愿意出售,因此当前的反弹行情有机会比许多人预期的持续得更久,正如近期的 TradFi 现货 ETF 申请兴趣看起来似乎过于一致,不像是纯粹的巧合。希望各位在当前的行情中都能有好运气!






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