长推:一个老韭菜对94的记忆,以及它的教训!

MarsBitPublicado em 2023-06-12Última atualização em 2023-06-12

Resumo

永远不要在恐慌中割肉,敬畏市场,敬畏风险

注:本文来自@Rocky_Bitcoin 推特,其是加密分析师,原推文内容由MarsBit整理如下:
随笔:一个老韭菜对94的记忆,以及它的教训!
我是16年底17年初进入币圈的,那时候还没有Web3这么高大尚的词汇。那会儿最疯狂莫过于ICO,什么红烧肉(HSR),什么量子,比原,唯链等等。
当时莫过于两大老人,一个薛蛮子,一个李笑来。风生水起的人物,我早期参加过李笑来的写作课,跟着券商金融组几个朋友,也就接触了ICO这个东西。
疯狂是真疯狂,额度全靠抢,没白皮书,没一行代码,上币就10倍-50倍不等。最有名的一个stratis 不到一年时间,从16年到17年中的时候,涨幅高达1500倍,估值超10亿美金。
李笑来投的EOS不到5天就在ICO平台融资了1.8亿美金。后来他又搞了一个Pressone(后面李笑来爆出录音中提及:Pressone就是忽悠傻逼的,谁买谁傻逼)。录音这事伤透了粉丝们的心。但当时Pressone ICO盛况,5天ICO融资了5800个BTC,10万个ETH和3000W个EOS。当时的疯狂,真的难以想象。
当时17年上半年,ICO融资规模就高达30亿,在这样的大背景下,当时疯狂的确过了头。引发了一些财经媒体报道并引发了国家的注意。
2017年9月4日,七部委联合下发《关于防范代币发行融资风险的公告》,正式叫停了ICO融资。当天下午3点公告一出,各个交易所代币价格一泻千里。其中,通过ICO融资发行的代币跌幅最猛,各种代币跌破发行价,最高跌幅有超过90%的。当天其实BTC没跌多少,大概在8%左右。
那天下午,真的是至暗时刻,我在电脑面前,整个人都傻了,当时的确投了不少钱,也赚了不少钱,突然就全没了,账户的数字就像碎钞机一样,可能来的更快。交易所宕机,各个群在场外恐慌抛售。生怕一文不值,不锈钢脸盆换柚子。真的害怕币圈在中国可能就不复存在了。
当时大胆的几个币友,开始在场外悄悄收币,我记忆最深刻的是,一群友前一天1.2刀买的EOS,后一天被朋友在场外以8毛RMB的价格收走。真的应了那句话,清华北大不如胆子大。
94之后,又发生了扫楼事件,关停交易所事件。包括当时比较出名的:比特币中国,云币网。OKCoin和火币关停RMB业务,并转移海外。所以也就发生了94之后,BTC跌幅比较大的914事件。
94之后,后面发生了什么事,大家应该都知道了。BTC从914清退交易所,最低跌到3000美金左右,不到3个月时间,BTC涨到了接近2W美金。涨幅高达6倍多。那就更加不用提那些94没割肉的山寨了。虽然18年中旬也发生过一次山寨小阳春,但那是后话了。
教训:
1.永远不要在恐慌中割肉

恐慌中割肉,是最不明智的,踩踏事件,是流动性陷阱,会导致价格如雪崩一样,第一无法成交,成交量低。第二必须挂更低的价格才能成交。这种踩踏,是及其不明智的。
2.学会把握周期
市场周而复始,循环往复,周期如同钟摆,一刻不停,不变得是人性罢了!勿要在FOMO中随波逐流,应要在恐慌中气定神闲。并根据自己的资金体量和风险承受力,去做好适合自己的投资策略。不奢望买在最低,卖在最高。更多是从市场估值和本身项目价值去评估自己的购入成本位。
3.学会择时
择时是一件很难的事情,交易本身它属于上战场,跟全球聪明的投资者做博弈和拼杀。择时包含买和卖,还有持有。俗话说会买是徒弟,会卖是师父。很多时候炒币炒NFT,最后成了自己的私人收藏,一旦亏损或者盈利,都不愿意有卖的动作。亏损时心态是厌恶亏损导致的漠视。盈利时心态是欢喜贪婪导致的欲念。这本身都是克服人性很难得关卡。币圈做过山车的人很多,但一直活得很滋润的很少。这道坎,包括我,也在不断修行。但总结来说,还是有方法:买入卖出前制定交易表格,定好策略,并严格执行(像我们团队策略制定和执行是分开的人,还有一个风控部门把关,相对理性一些)。
4.敬畏市场,敬畏风险
跌50%,2倍的杠杆都会爆掉。而这种波动,在币圈是常有的事。千万不要碰杠杆,千万不要开合约,千万不要借钱炒币。假如您有能力,现货也会让您慢慢变富。假如您没能力,杠杆就是加速您灭亡的助推剂!切记切记!
5.学习冥想
冥想是在我交易和投研中,帮助很大的地方。并且有多次躲避了一些风险,比如519。它不光给人精力充沛,而且能带来冷静思考的场域。同时往往在一些巨大风险的时候,会给您一种超然的觉知,那种觉知力,说不明道不清,可以说第六感,也可以说觉知。但真的很神奇。
好了。希望今天的文章对您有帮助,也可以帮助更多WEB3伙伴,如有帮助,可以多多转发和点赞,收益更多人,感恩🙏🙏

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