传奇投资人 | 吉姆 · 罗杰斯:美元时代即将告终!全球正加速去美元化

动区动趋2023-05-22 tarihinde yayınlandı2023-05-22 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

美国的许多友邦都正在行动,试图找到能与美元竞争、并最终取代美元的替代品,这会发生的,这种事情总是会发生的,美国的时代即将结束,美元的时代即将结束。

曾与「金融巨鳄」索罗斯(George Soros)共同创立量子基金、有「商品大王」之称的美国传奇投资人罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)在17 日接受俄罗斯卫星通讯社(Sputnik) 专访时,分享了他认为美元将丧失世界储备货币地位的原因:

美国的许多友邦都正在行动,试图找到能与美元竞争、并最终取代美元的替代品,这会发生的,这种事情总是会发生的,美国的时代即将结束,美元的时代即将结束。

美元丧失地位两大原因

罗杰斯解释,美元的主导地位将不可避免地下降,原因是「没有货币能在顶峰待超过150年」,他接着详细说明了各国逐渐远离美元的原因,第一个原因是,美国已成为世界史上最大的债务国:

许多人开始说:等一下,我不知道我们是否想用美元,因为总有一天,美元会出问题。

在罗杰斯发表此言论之际,美国两党针对举债上限的谈判陷入僵局,联邦政府最快可能在6 月1 日出现债务违约,美国财政部长叶伦(Janet Yellen)本周稍早警告,根据白宫研究,美国若陷入债务违约,股市恐暴跌约45%。

美元地位将遭取代的第二个原因,则是与制裁有关,在俄罗斯挥军入侵乌克兰后,美国及其盟国对俄罗斯实施一系列严厉制裁,在罗杰斯看来,美国对俄罗斯的制裁,加速了去美元化的进程:

世界的国际货币应是完全中立的,任何人都可以用它来做任何事,但现在华府正在改变规则,如果美国生你的气,就会把获取美元的渠道切断…就连美国的友邦也担心他们会出事,因此,世界正以更快的速度去美元化。

尚未有美元替代品出现

不过罗杰斯也坦言,迄今为止,世界尚未找到美元替代品,甚至还没有找到能够与美元竞争的货币,而当被问及是否看好人民币能成为世界主导货币时,他则回应:

有人当然会这么想,但中国人不让你买卖人民币,人民币还没有完全开放兑换。

罗杰斯也不看好比特币,他早在2021 年就表示,比特币和黄金不能直接类比,虽然两者都能作为货币以外的交易媒介,但贵金属并没有取代货币的意图,政府为了维持法币的权威性,很有可能将会对比特币祭出管制。

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