Is Bitcoin Headed For Another Crash? Here’s What The Data Says

newsbtcPubblicato 2023-05-18Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-05-18

Introduzione

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been trading in a sideways trend since its drop from the $28,000 level. As of the time of writing, BTC is...

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has been trading in a sideways trend since its drop from the $28,000 level. As of the time of writing, BTC is currently valued at $26,800, having experienced significant declines across all time frames. The question on everyone’s mind now is whether this downturn will continue or if Bitcoin is headed for another crash.
Can Bitcoin Holders Expect Another 40% Drop In The Coming Weeks
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts and traders closely monitor Bitcoin’s performance after its recent price drop. According to Miles Deutscher, an experienced cryptocurrency analyst, Bitcoin typically experiences a temporary rally after a decline, followed by a new low 5-8 weeks later.
Deutscher’s analysis shows that in 2020, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 56% within 59 days after rallying initially. Similarly, in 2021, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24% within 47 days, and in 2022, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 42% within 40 days.

BTC’s historical patterns after its initial rally. Source: Miles Deutscher on Twitter. With this said, with BTC trading at $26,800, if it experiences a 20% drop, its price will likely fall to $21,440, while a 30% drop would bring it down to $18,760. A 40% drop would result in a price of $16,080, potentially taking Bitcoin back to the lowest point of the 2022 bear market.
2023 Is Set To Be The Best Year For BTC Yet?
On the other hand, according to cryptocurrency analyst Adrian Zdunczyk, historical data suggests that pre-election years are the best-performing years on record for Bitcoin, with a 98.8% chance of a bull run in 2023. Even though the worst six months of the year usually begin with May, Zdunczyk believes a bullish trend will likely emerge in the coming months.
Looking at the weekly chart, Zdunczyk notes that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a complete throwback to the 200-week trend, completing the mean reversion. While a strong correlation (0.42) exists between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, the critical support near $25,000 has been defended. However, if this support level breaks, traders could see prices fall into the lower $20,000 area.

Furthermore, Zdunczyk believes more downside is possible if Bitcoin stays below $30,000. However, after a successful retest of the 200-day baseline, the support level has been confirmed by multiple techniques. Meanwhile, there has been a deterioration in the 50-day average volatility, and the long-term trend has been temporarily exhausted.
Zdunczyk’s analysis suggests a clear head and shoulders pattern has been completed, with a technical breakout target of $22,000. However, if the pattern fails to break, it could trigger a cascade rally beyond $35,000.

BTC’s BPRO indicator places local resistance at the $28,000 level. Source: Adrian Zdunczyk on Twitter. As seen in the chart above, the local resistance is currently at $28,000, backed by the BirbicatorPRO (BPRO) analysis. The bears maintain control until there is a powerful close above this level. Bitcoin bulls must wait for a decisive breakout above $30,000 to ensure a more reliable upward trend.

BTC’s sideways price action on the 1-day chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com

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STRC 跌破面值，比特币财库实验进入下半场

The price of STRC, Strategy's dividend-paying preferred stock, has fallen below its $100 face value, triggering a re-evaluation of the "bitcoin treasury" corporate model. This highlights a critical tension: the company's asset base consists of high-volatility, non-cash-flow-generating Bitcoin, while its capital structure requires continuous cash payouts for dividends and interest. The decline of STRC signals that market pressure is shifting from asset price volatility to the pricing of the company's financing tools. Strategy's core model involves a three-step conversion: turning equity into Bitcoin exposure, converting Bitcoin holdings into capital market credit, and packaging non-yielding BTC into cash-paying securities like STRC. While Strategy holds a massive 847,363 BTC, the focus is now on cash flow mismatches. The company faces annual preferred stock dividend obligations of approximately $1.7 billion, far exceeding the cash flow from its legacy software business. Its ability to meet these obligations relies on continued access to capital markets. The market is now scrutinizing which of three potential costs becomes untenable first: rising dividend costs to attract investors, dilution costs from issuing more common stock, or the reputational cost of selling BTC—a move contrary to its "hodl" narrative. For the broader crypto market, a constrained Strategy means the potential loss of a predictable, narrative-driven marginal buyer for Bitcoin. The STRC discount serves as a reminder that the longevity of such models depends not just on Bitcoin's price, but also on financing windows, cash reserves, and investor willingness to pay a "trust premium" for the structure.

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Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

Standard Chartered Bank has issued an optimistic research report predicting that the AAVE token could surge 50-fold to $3,500 by 2030. This forecast is based on the projection that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi will grow 37x to approximately $2.7 trillion, driven by stablecoin expansion and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). The bank's model links Aave's potential valuation directly to its protocol revenue, which is primarily driven by net interest margins. The report highlights Aave's current dominant position, noting it captures over 80% of the net earnings ("protocol retained earnings") in the lending sector while holding only about half of its TVL. It also points to the recent launch of the Aave V4 architecture and a healthy revenue stream of $142 million in 2025 as positive fundamentals. Grayscale's separate analysis, applying traditional valuation metrics like DCF, concluded AAVE is currently undervalued. However, the article notes significant challenges. Aave's peer-to-pool lending model suffers from inherent capital inefficiency, with an estimated $52 million annual "deadweight loss" due to idle funds needed for liquidity buffers. This structural flaw was exposed during the April KelpDAO exploit, which locked a WETH pool at 100% utilization for days. Emerging protocols like Morpho, with more efficient point-to-point models, are cited as growing competitive threats. In summary, while institutional forecasts paint a macro picture of massive growth fueled by RWA adoption, Aave's path forward hinges on addressing its core structural limitations and competitive pressures within the evolving DeFi lending landscape.

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Standard Chartered Bank’s 50-Fold Fantasy: Predicting AAVE to Reach $3,500

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Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

Tidal Investment remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market narrative has changed. While recent large-scale IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and major fundraising plans by tech giants like Alphabet and Meta have caused some nervousness, this isn't a sign of an AI peak. The focus has moved from the initial question of AI's viability to the sustainability of massive investment cycles. The key players—primarily the major cloud providers—are not slowing down; their capital expenditure (Capex) guidance for 2026 has been increased across the board (e.g., Alphabet to $180B, Amazon to $200B). This investment cycle is proving resilient and difficult to stop. Unlike traditional hardware cycles, current AI Capex is distributed across multiple physical layers—computing, memory, networking, and critically, power infrastructure. Bottlenecks are shifting from chips to elements like electricity, transformers, and cooling systems, which have much longer lead times and cannot be easily pre-built like fiber optics during the dot-com bubble. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's 240% YoY data center orders) confirms this broad-based, project-driven expansion. Market concerns are acknowledged but viewed differently. First, while Capex growth currently outpaces revenue growth, raising ROI questions, this mirrors the early scaling phase of cloud computing itself. A change in view would require concrete signals like downward Capex revisions or missed AI product targets, which haven't materialized by mid-2026. Second, comparisons to the 2000 dot-com bust are flawed. That crash was driven by a massive, parallel oversupply of cheap capacity (fiber). The current cycle faces *supply constraints* in critical, capital-intensive physical infrastructure that cannot be overbuilt as easily. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the next, more complex act of the AI story. Physical bottlenecks and sustained high Capex plans suggest this is not the finale but an ongoing, capital-intensive build-out phase. The script has changed, but the play is far from over.

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Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But the Reasons Have Changed

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Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

Tidal Investments remains optimistic about the AI industry chain, but the rationale has shifted. The market is concerned about massive concurrent fundraising by tech giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, Alphabet, and Meta, fearing an AI peak. However, the authors argue this signals the next act of AI development, not its end. Capital expenditure (Capex) from major cloud providers (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) continues to surge aggressively into 2026. This investment cycle is more resilient than past hardware cycles due to its scale and complexity. Bottlenecks have shifted from chips to critical physical infrastructure like power grids, transformers, cooling, and data center construction—areas with long lead times and limited capacity for rapid expansion. Supply chain data (e.g., Eaton's orders) confirms substantial, tangible progress. Key market concerns are addressed: 1. **ROI vs. Capex Growth**: While Capex growth outpaces revenue, the authors note cloud giants have historically overcome similar phases through scale. The cycle will only be in danger if Capex guidance is cut, orders are canceled, or AI product demand falters—none of which are currently observed. 2. **Comparison to the 2000 Dot-com Bubble**: Unlike the telecom bubble, where cheap, oversupplied fiber crashed prices, AI infrastructure (especially power) is constrained, customized, and subject to lengthy approvals, making a similar supply glut and crash unlikely. In conclusion, the wave of fundraising reflects the immense, ongoing capital needs for AI's next phase, constrained by slow-moving physical bottlenecks. The AI cycle is not over; the script has simply changed.

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Tidal Investment: We Remain Bullish on the AI Industry Chain, But for Different Reasons Now

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Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

Grayscale Research identifies 15 top-revenue crypto protocols trading at significant valuation discounts, with many at single-digit or even 1x revenue multiples. Protocols like Pump.fun, PancakeSwap, and Meteora have market capitalizations roughly equal to their annual revenue. The report argues these financially-focused protocols (DEXs, lending, staking) are fundamentally undervalued and could benefit from the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, expected as soon as next month. This legislation aims to clarify digital asset regulation, potentially reducing institutional barriers and driving on-chain activity. The analysis breaks down the protocols into three groups: the "1x Club" (market cap ≈ revenue), mid-tier protocols with 3-9x multiples (e.g., Aave, Lido, Jupiter), and high-multiple protocols like Hyperliquid (15x) and Uniswap (37x), where valuation reflects future potential rather than current cash flows. Grayscale applies a traditional DCF model to Aave, suggesting a one-year price target of ~$175, representing ~130% upside from current levels. The report notes a risk-off macro environment since the Iran conflict has further compressed valuations, creating a potential entry window. The conclusion highlights that while the valuation data presents an intriguing opportunity, the investment thesis is contingent on the CLARITY Act's passage and subsequent institutional capital flows. Investors are cautioned to consider Grayscale's inherent conflict of interest as a crypto asset manager with products tied to these assets.

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Grayscale: These 15 Profitable Crypto Protocols Are Severely Undervalued

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