比特币下穿 2.7 万、以太坊跌逼 1770!美国地区银行危机再起

动区动趋Pubblicato 2023-05-12Pubblicato ultima volta 2023-05-12

Introduzione

于西太银行11 日披露5 月首周存款下降9.5%,投资者担忧有挤兑风险,尽管官方强调能满足流动性取款需求,开盘后股价仍大幅跳水,并连带拉垮金融股,美股四大指数多数收黑。

比特币昨晚持续在27,500 美元附近震荡多时候,于晚间08:30 左右开始下跌,今(12)晨最低跌至26,702 美元,截稿前多次挑战站回2.7 万美元都以失败告终、现报26,874 美元,近24 小时2.26 %。

BTC价格走势|图源:币安

以太币(ETH)方面走势也大致雷同,清晨最低跌至1,772 美元,来到4 月初以来的低点,截稿前现报1,790 美元。

ETH价格走势|图源:币安

通膨稳步降温、但地区银行危机再起

至于在美股方面,美国劳工统计局昨晚公布生产者价格指数(PPI) ,年增2.3%,低于预期的2.5%、年增幅度写下自2021 年1 月以来最低,此外截至上周,美国首次申请失业救济人数增加了22,000 人,创下自2021 年10 月30 日以来的最高,两份报告显示通膨与劳动力市场似乎正稳健降温的迹象。

但由于西太银行11 日披露5 月首周存款下降9.5%,投资者担忧有挤兑风险,尽管官方强调能满足流动性取款需求,开盘后股价仍大幅跳水,并连带拉垮金融股,美股四大指数多数收黑。

道琼指数下跌221.82 点,或0.66%,收33,309.51 点。

那斯达克指数上涨22.07 点,或0.18%,收12,328.51 点。

标普500 指数下跌7.02 点,或0.17%,收4,130.62 点。

费城半导体指数下跌18.79 点,或0.63%,收2,978.72 点。

全网爆仓近1 亿美元

震荡下跌的行情,据Coinglass数据显示,过去24 小时内,有近4.1 万人遭清算,全网爆仓金额达9,444 万美元。其中,比特币爆仓额最大,达2,763 万美元,以太币爆仓额名列第二,达2,101 万美元。

Letture associate

Dalio's Major Article: How to Position in the Current Market Environment?

In the current market environment, dominated by excitement and uncertainty around revolutionary AI technology, Ray Dalio emphasizes the critical importance of diversification. He identifies key drivers—debt/monetary conditions, political/social issues, geopolitics, natural forces, and new tech—that create a highly concentrated and risky landscape, reminiscent of past technological cycles. Dalio argues that while AI presents immense opportunities, investing heavily in a few leading tech stocks carries significant risk due to their inherent volatility, competitive pressures, potential over/under-investment, and unforeseen disruptions. Historical precedent shows that most investors fail during such phases by making concentrated bets. His core principle is to embrace diversification—holding 15+ high-quality, uncorrelated, and risk-balanced investments. This mathematically improves the risk-return profile, allowing for better returns at the same risk level through engineering, compared to any single concentrated bet. He notes that current equity valuations suggest low-to-negative expected returns, and cautions against conflating excitement for the technology with the attractiveness of the stocks. Ultimately, Dalio advises that knowing when not to bet—acknowledging the limits of one's knowledge—is as vital as knowing when to bet. In an environment of high uncertainty and concentration, a well-constructed, diversified portfolio is the optimal strategy.

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Dalio's Major Article: How to Position in the Current Market Environment?

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Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

Oil prices fell below $80 as a US-Iran peace framework eased tensions, but Bitcoin failed to rally, remaining around $64,900. The article argues that while lower oil removes a key bearish factor for BTC, the primary market drivers have shifted to liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, ETF fund flows, and overall risk appetite. Historically, high oil prices threatened inflation, delaying Fed rate cuts and hurting risk assets like Bitcoin. Now, with oil prices down, Bitcoin's path hinges on whether this translates into lower inflation expectations, softer Treasury yields, and a more dovish Fed stance. Recent FOMC minutes still show concern over energy-driven inflation, keeping financial conditions restrictive. Bitcoin ETF flows showed a slight positive inflow recently, but sustained demand is needed for a meaningful shift. The market requires consistent signals: stable ETF inflows, declining yields, and improving risk sentiment alongside lower oil prices. Without this combination, lower oil alone may not boost BTC. The outlook presents two paths: a recovery if lower oil eases inflation, the Fed turns less hawkish, and ETF demand stabilizes, allowing BTC to reclaim the $66,900-$70,000 range. Conversely, Bitcoin could remain pressured if the peace deal stalls, the Fed remains restrictive, yields stay high, or ETF flows reverse. In summary, for the remainder of 2026, liquidity factors—Fed policy, ETF activity, and investor risk appetite—have surpassed oil prices as the critical determinants of Bitcoin's price trajectory.

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Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

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