AI炒作见顶,大涨的LSD板块能否承接市场热点?

区块律动Published on 2023-02-09Last updated on 2023-02-09

Abstract

资金已闻风而动

AI 的炒作已经醉生梦死,在情绪的持续持续推进下,获利盘巨大,筹码断层严重,高位滞胀。AGIX 昨日大幅回落,A 股汉王科技今日低开,宣告 AI 行情告一段落。然而在此轮行情的获利资金眼中,市场仍然干柴烈火。

题材很重要,但有时候题材出现的时机更重要。

数小时前,Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 推特称,传闻美国 SEC 希望在美国取消散户的加密货币质押,一时间市场传言美国监管层面将对加密市场重拳出击,这种政策的前因与逻辑暂且不表。市场层面,有危就有机,CEX 质押利空,则 LSD(流动性质押衍生品)利好。下面让我们梳理一下 LSD 板块的相关币种。

LSD 四兄弟

LDO(Lido)

以太坊流动性质押龙头,以当前近 500 万枚的 ETH 质押量占据市场 90 以上份额,其协议设计简洁明了,存入 ETH 即可 1:1 得到 stETH,作为权益衍生资产,后者在 Curve 上拥有不错的流动性。

如果我们认为 LSD 是目前加密市场基本面最「硬」的逻辑,LDO 则为中军。在 2022 年下半年的熊市的数次回暖中,LDO 常常是资金率先选择的对象,当前市值 23 亿美元。

RPL(Rocket Pool)

相比于 Lido 全链扩张的打法,Rocket Pool 专注于以太坊。LDO 只具备治理功能,但在 Rocket 网络,需质押一定数目的 RPL 以保证节点正常运行,该设计赋予 RPL 一定的 Utility。RPL 当前市值 8.5 亿美元,今日已突破近一年高点,近三个月趋势持续向上,涨幅已达到 300%。

SSV(ssv.network)

SSV 本身是一个服务于验证人的基础设施,但 SSV 并不做资产管理的工作,也就是 SSV 并不吸收用户的 ETH 再进行组合。不像 Lido 一类真正的质押服务商。SSV 主要服务于两类用户,一类是长期持仓的,需要保证资金安全(不托管资产给第三方),但不想自己动手的大户;一类是以 Lido、Rocketpool、Binance 为首的一众 ETH 质押服务商 SSV 的价值捕获。SSV 帮助质押运营商减少运维压力、减少设备服务器的支出及其管理成本、减少安全风险,方便省心。

SSV 当前市值 2.3 亿美元,截至目前日内上涨 20%。

FXS(Frax)

Frax 以算法稳定币而闻名,其由一连串的 DeFi 产品组成,包括稳定币、借贷市场、去中心化交易平台等。Frax 介入 LSD 的时间并不长,目前市场份额排名第五,市值 1 亿美元左右,与 LSD 概念贴合度一般,是否能得到市场的认可,还需要时间检验。

LSD 的基本面定位

严格意义上说,AI 在加密行业中缺少合理靠谱的炒作逻辑,此轮行情更像是对全球整体科技行情的共振响应。进一步,如果我们认为 AI 属于 meme 类题材炒作,那 LSD 毫无疑问属于加密行业的基本面赛道——质押是有实际落地的应用,而近期每轮回暖中 LDO 等标的的率先表现也印证了这一点。由此可见,切换不仅仅是资金的溢出,也是一种市场审美的回归。

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