On its first day of listing, Changxin Technology set multiple records. Its stock price closed up 465.82% at 49 yuan per share, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with a market capitalization of 3.28 trillion yuan to become the A-share market cap "top dog". The full-day trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan, making it the first A-share stock in history to break the 100-billion-yuan mark in single-day turnover.
At the same time, 7.7 million investors who won the lottery for Changxin Technology also welcomed their moment to cash in.
Picture shows the bell-ringing ceremony for Changxin Technology's listing. Source: Internet
On the first day of listing, the mentality of winning investors varied: some sold and exited immediately at the open, watching the intraday high slip away and later filled with regret; some chose to take profits and refused to gamble on future price fluctuations; yet there were also those who refused to sell and even added to their positions in Changxin.
Meanwhile, questions like "Will Changxin become the second PetroChina?" also appeared in major investment communities. How Changxin Technology will perform in the future has become a hot topic.
01 Investors who didn't sell at the peak are full of regret
The火爆程度 of Changxin Technology's first day far exceeded expectations. Some investors reported that trading soon after the open experienced lag, making transactions impossible and orders un-cancelable, with service gradually resuming around 10 am.
Source: Internet
The last time a new stock listing caused widespread system lag and inability to cancel orders was on October 15, 2020, when the A-share food giant COFCO Fortune landed on the ChiNext board. As the largest IPO by fundraising scale on ChiNext at that time, it opened up 90.51%. In the morning session, funds集中涌入 the Shenzhen Stock Exchange channel, causing system lag across all brokerages market-wide.
Source: Internet
Many winning investors sold after their brokerage systems returned to normal, but then felt regret as Changxin's stock price hit a new intraday high just before the lunch break ended.
Picture shows investors' buy/sell situations. Source: Internet
There were also many conservative winning investors who chose to sell all their shares on the first day, taking profits and refusing to gamble on future volatility. Conversely, some investors看好长期价值, not only holding all shares but also buying more during intraday pullbacks, betting on the long-term growth potential of Changxin Technology as a domestic memory chip leader.
Source: Internet
Thanks to Changxin Technology's high lottery-winning rate of 0.4714%, the coverage of this IPO was significantly broader. Scrolling through social media, one could often see friends晒出持仓, sharing the joy of making big profits on the first day.
Whether they sold at the intraday peak or not, for investors holding the shares, Changxin Technology's first-day performance was a real盈利盛宴.
02 Will Changxin Technology's trend become the second PetroChina?
Amid the wealth-creation狂欢, many investors began to worry about short-term speculation泡沫 and周期见顶 risks.
A 3 trillion yuan market cap at opening,全民追捧, and the scenario of a超级IPO reminded many veteran investors of PetroChina's listing in 2007.
Because people found that data in certain aspects between the two were高度相似.
Firstly, the fundraising规模几乎持平. PetroChina's 2007 A-share issuance raised 66.8 billion yuan; Changxin Technology, after full exercise of the绿鞋, raised 66.607 billion yuan. Both were A-share巨无霸 IPOs, raising concerns about market资金分流.
Secondly, the狂热氛围 in the secondary market on the first day also reminded people of PetroChina.
Picture shows PetroChina's post-listing trend in 2007. Source: Internet
At that time, PetroChina's发行价 was 16.7 yuan. After opening, it quickly rose to 48.6 yuan, a gain of 191%. Its total market cap briefly突破8 trillion, topping global market value rankings. Changxin Technology's发行价 is 8.66 yuan, today's opening price was 49.5 yuan, a gain of 471.59%. With a 3.2 trillion yuan market cap, it instantly surpassed ICBC to become the A-share market value leader.
Picture shows international oil prices in 2007. Source: Internet
Lastly, at the time of listing, both were in industry景气周期. When PetroChina listed, international oil prices were at historical highs, around $90 per barrel, and the market was unanimously看好能源长期红利. Changxin's listing also coincides with a暴涨周期 in memory chip prices. Its H1 2026 net profit is预计同比暴涨 over 22 times. Therefore, the market worries that the current point might be the peak of the memory cycle, and the stock price could weaken once the cycle ends.
However,综合券商研报及分析师观点来看, equating Changxin Technology simply to PetroChina only sees the surface commonalities of "巨无霸 IPO, listing at cycle peak,全民炒作", while忽略成长赛道、国产替代以及业绩增速的核心差异.
Analyst Wang Fang from Zhongtai Securities believes that this round of memory涨价大周期 started in 25Q2, with涨价幅度持续超预期 in 25Q4 and 26Q1. It is预计 that DRAM供需仍持续紧张 in 2026, and prices有望继续上涨.
Regarding业绩成长性, Huaxi Securities believes that with the continuous放量 of high-generation products like DDR5, continuous optimization of product structure, and the gradual release of规模效应, future业绩增长空间有望进一步打开. They provided盈利数据预判 for Changxin,预计 2026-2028 company营业收入分别为 2776.90/3917.94/5726.94 billion yuan,归母净利润为 1244.05/1821.17/2906.02 billion yuan.
In terms of comparison标的, the post-listing trends of A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board semiconductor leaders might be more suitable作为长鑫股价参照物.
The domestic chip自主可控赛道长期享有估值溢价. For example, SMIC (晶圆制造龙头), as the当时国内晶圆代工唯一平台, experienced short-term冲高回落 after listing but maintained a high valuation long-term based on国产替代 logic, with a 2026 consensus PE约150倍.
Some institutions extremely看好产业长期红利 have given Changxin Technology极具想象空间的估值天花板.
Picture shows Nomura Securities research report. Source: Internet
Nomura Securities directly gave a Buy rating and a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of 7.76 trillion yuan, representing upside potential of over 12 times from the发行价.
Nomura Securities判断 that the爆发 of AI算力带来 DRAM需求指数级增长. Overseas memory giants纷纷转产 HBM, compressing supply of通用内存, leading to持续偏紧 industry供需格局. Changxin's current global份额仅8%, leaving ample国产替代提升空间.叠加成熟制程扩产不受 EUV限制, once HBM技术落地, the company will open a全新增长曲线. Therefore, valuation is based on a 2028预期 PE of 20倍.
从历史周期维度看, the memory industry has天然周期波动 of 3-4 years. But Guojin Securities stated that the开启 of each major memory cycle (e.g., 2008, 2016) is driven by emerging technologies promoting product upgrades and innovation,进而催生 new products'总量、渗透率和存储器价值量的提升, pushing the memory market规模上升一个台阶. With AI driving需求提升, 当下我们走在新一轮存储大周期的起点. They看好模型和应用落地后对存储需求长期且大量的拉动.
For ordinary investors,持续关注存储周期的发展阶段与 breakthroughs in高端存储技术 like HBM才是关键.
This article is from the WeChat public account "Phoenix.com Finance", author: Company Research Institute
