Author: Wall Street Insights
The U.S. military's top officer is privately seeking an "exit" from the Iran conflict.
According to Xinhua, citing multiple informed sources, CNN reported on the 7th that General Dan Kane, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has recently made this position clear in meetings with senior White House officials including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and CIA Director Ratcliffe. On the 8th, Vance characterized the US-Iran conflict as a "midgame" in an interview with Fox News, stating that the conflict is "clearly no longer in the opening phase."
On the same day, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Zolgadel presented six conditions to the U.S. side—covering troop withdrawal, lifting all sanctions, and compensation for war losses—as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The game surrounding this strategic waterway, which once carried a fifth of the world's oil shipments, has entered deeper waters: the U.S. side faces ammunition shortages and limited airstrike effectiveness; Iran holds control over the strait, advancing temporary shipping lane negotiations with Oman on one hand while setting numerous barriers to full reopening on the other.
Vance: "Not the opening, already in the midgame"
According to Xinhua, Vance stated on the 8th that the US-Iran conflict "is not over, but clearly is no longer in the opening phase; it has entered the midgame phase," with the U.S. comprehensively employing diplomatic, economic, and military means.
He noted that the current U.S. focus is "to increase the amount of oil and gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz as much as possible," and is observing whether Iran is willing to make the "necessary long-term changes" to build better bilateral relations—"if Iran is unwilling, the U.S. will continue to exert pressure."
Vance also mentioned that the U.S. is trying to establish a navigation safety mechanism, including mine-clearing work, while "needing commitments from Iran to guarantee not to fire on merchant ships." Although Iran consistently denies direct negotiations, Trump insists talks have resumed. Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 4th that the U.S. is participating in dialogue between Oman and Iran.
Chairman of Joint Chiefs Advocates "Finding an Exit"
Meanwhile, CNN's report reveals deeper anxiety within the U.S. military. Kane's core judgment is: airstrikes alone are unlikely to achieve all the operational objectives announced by Trump, but further escalation carries obvious downsides with existing military options. "Kane is looking for an exit," one source said.
The report states that Kane is not alone in believing the Iran conflict has reached a "crossroads." He has communicated with several presidential advisors who share this view to consolidate their stance before meetings convened by Trump. Many U.S. government insiders and analysts believe achieving decisive victory would require large-scale ground troop involvement—potentially causing significant U.S. casualties and contradicting Trump's campaign promises. Kane admitted in congressional hearings that "airpower operations have their limitations." Public analysis suggests Trump's repeated threats to expand strikes on Iranian energy facilities are unlikely to force Iran's submission and would almost certainly trigger retaliatory Iranian strikes on U.S. allies' energy facilities in the region.
Ammunition shortages have shifted from a private concern to a public issue. Multiple sources noted that since the conflict began, the U.S. military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its THAAD interceptor inventory, about half of its Patriot interceptors, and nearly half of its Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump on the 6th initially denied shortages, then conceded that supplies of "certain types of ammunition" were "relatively tight." Kane has repeatedly expressed concern to Trump about inventory falling to "dangerously low levels," with ammunition shortages increasing Trump's frustration over Iran.
U.S. Central Command has internally solicited "creative, unconventional" suggestions to break the impasse, reflecting the limited options remaining for the U.S. to pressure Iran into an agreement. Furthermore, citing U.S. media reports, "Niu Tan Qin" reported that the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier has been continuously deployed in the Middle East for over 8 months, with more than 5,000 crew facing supply shortages and low morale, prompting calls from several military families for urgent port resupply.
Iran's Six Conditions: Hardliners Set High Bar
On August 8, according to Iran's state news agency IRNA, Zolgadel listed six conditions for the U.S.:
- Never threaten Iran;
- End all aggression against Iran and its allies;
- Lift the naval blockade, withdraw military forces from around Iran;
- Compensate Iran for all war losses;
- Lift all sanctions on Iran;
- Unconditionally unfreeze all Iranian frozen assets.
Zolgadel emphasized: "These are the demands of the Iranian people, who have been chanting them in squares and streets for 160 consecutive days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations."
According to The Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report notes these conditions are not the formal stance of Iranian negotiators and are clearly an unacceptable starting point for the U.S., but indicate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting a high bar for any agreement. Notably, Iranian diplomats in actual contacts with mediators have raised more pragmatic demands—reportedly focusing mainly on lifting the naval blockade, restoring oil export sanctions waivers, and unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds.
A Revolutionary Guards spokesperson stated on official media on the 8th: "The Strait of Hormuz is not merely an economic passage for us; it is a key component of geopolitical and strategic power." According to the Tasnim news agency, the Guards said reopening the strait is unrelated to Iran-Oman negotiations, "depending on whether the U.S. fully accepts Iran's conditions and ceases interference in regional negotiations."
Temporary Channel "Close to Agreement," Full Reopening Still Distant
As full reopening remains distant, technical negotiations between Iran and Oman on temporary navigation arrangements have progressed. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on the 8th: "Given technical complexities, we are determining a temporary route. I believe we are very close to an agreement."
But Araghchi immediately drew a line: "This does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The strait's opening depends on other conditions, including U.S. compensation for violating the memorandum of understanding." —The ceasefire MoU signed by Trump and Iran in June aimed to open the strait and pave the way for in-depth talks, but later collapsed due to continued Iranian attacks on passing ships.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the draft Iran-Oman agreement proposes establishing new lanes in the strait: inbound lanes near the Iranian side, outbound lanes near the Omani side, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists any agreement prohibit U.S. naval warships from passing through the strait, aiming to weaken the U.S. military presence maintained for decades in the Persian Gulf. U.S. officials have told mediators they will not accept Iranian restrictions on strait traffic or toll collection.
The situation continues to deteriorate. UAE national oil company ADNOC stated that three ships have been hit by missiles or drones in the past week, bringing the total to 15 ships struck since the war began. The UAE attributed the latest attack on the 8th to the Revolutionary Guards.
Last weekend, Trump called off a new round of military strikes aimed at breaking the deadlock, citing "progress in negotiations." Iranian President Pezeshkian also said, "Now may be the right time to advance negotiations." But according to mediators, talks have recently stalled over Iran's demands for economic relief and the U.S. insistence on freedom of navigation. Zolgadel's hardline stance and continued ship attacks have deepened mediators' concerns—hardliners are delaying agreement approval.
