Author: Jinshi Data
On Monday morning local time, US President Trump posted on Truth Social, stating that the US and Iran had "very good and productive discussions" regarding resolving the Middle East war.
However, before Trump publicly disclosed this news, several accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had already placed large bets that the war would end within this week.
Ten recently opened accounts invested thousands of dollars in Polymarket's "US-Iran Ceasefire" market, betting on a ceasefire being reached by March 31 or April 15; these accounts collectively wagered approximately $160,000, and if a ceasefire is achieved before the end of the month, they stand to profit over $1 million.
These accounts were identified by X platform user Lirrato on Sunday and were subsequently shared and spread by the PolymarketHistory account. After Trump's post on Monday, the unrealized gains of these 10 accounts have already exceeded $300,000.
One account named "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS" was particularly noteworthy. This account was registered in late February. Its first two trades were betting $7,600 on a US strike against Iran before February 28 and betting $11,283 on a strike before March 1; these two bets yielded profits totaling over $85,000. Now, the account has bet $8,005 on a US-Iran ceasefire before March 31 and another $15,614 on a ceasefire before April 15; these two bets have already generated unrealized gains of over $30,000.
The scale, timing, and past performance of these bets have led to external speculation about whether these Polymarket accounts belong to insiders—individuals connected to US or Iranian political circles who possess non-public information about diplomatic progress.
Prediction markets have previously been mired in insider trading scandals. A recent example involves a Polymarket trader who bet on the US taking military action against Venezuela, profiting over $400,000; a few days later, the US announced the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Its competitor, Kalshi, recently also banned two users for insider trading, marking the platform's first public investigation into such activities.
On Monday, Polymarket announced an upgrade to its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting three types of behavior: trading using stolen confidential information, trading using illegal insider information, and trading when a user has the ability to influence the outcome of an event.
Polymarket's Chief Legal Officer, Neal Kumar, stated in a declaration: "Market prosperity relies on clear rules. The new regulations provide clarity for all participants and also demonstrate the compliance system we have built."
This rule adjustment may indicate that Polymarket will follow Kalshi's lead and initiate insider trading investigations. Although it is not yet certain whether the accounts betting on a US-Iran ceasefire are insiders, a platform investigation is expected to uncover the truth.
Abnormal Volume Spikes in S&P and Crude Futures Before Trump's Post
Furthermore, several minutes before Trump posted his market-moving social media update, abnormal trading volume spikes were also observed in S&P 500 futures and crude oil futures.
Around 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, the trading volume of S&P 500 e-mini futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a sharp and isolated surge, breaking the typically quiet pre-market backdrop. The early session is usually characterized by thin liquidity, making this sudden volume spike one of the largest moments of on-screen volume for that session up to that point.
A similar pattern emerged in the crude oil market. WTI crude oil futures also showed a noticeable uptick in trading activity around the same time, with a significant volume spike disrupting the previously calm market conditions.
Approximately 15 minutes later, at 7:05 AM, Trump's statement about delaying strikes on Iranian power plants immediately triggered a rally in risk assets. S&P 500 futures surged over 2.5% before the open, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell nearly 6% following the announcement.
The timing of the synchronized volume spikes in the stock and oil markets during the early session caught traders' attention—especially since there was no apparent catalyst driving the movement at the time of the spikes.
Pre-market futures trading typically has lower liquidity, making brief bursts of buying and selling more conspicuous than during regular trading hours. Nonetheless, these trades were still notable because anyone who bought stock futures in large quantities while simultaneously selling or shorting crude oil futures at that moment would have made huge profits just minutes later.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the CME Group both declined to comment.
Algorithmic trading strategies and macro-driven strategies could also trigger rapid cross-asset capital flows during pre-market trading, even in the absence of a single identifiable catalyst.
