Original: WuBlockchain
TL;DR:
Three tech giants are set to go public, potentially igniting one of the largest tech IPO waves in recent years: The combined target IPO valuation of SpaceX and the latest funding valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic exceed $3.5 trillion. This not only tests the capital market's ability to price innovative technology but also sparks widespread discussion on liquidity impact.
SpaceX's valuation rationale is shifting from space business to global infrastructure: Market focus is gradually moving from rocket launches to the global communications network built by Starlink, valuing its long-term growth potential and infrastructure attributes.
OpenAI and Anthropic may provide the capital market with the first large-scale foundational model investment targets: The two companies represent the core productivity of generative AI. Their listings could drive a repricing of the AI sector and create competition for some AI plays driven primarily by narratives.
The "capital siphon effect" of super IPOs may be overestimated by the market: Historical experience shows that large IPOs typically represent capital reallocation rather than liquidity disappearance and are rarely the direct cause of systemic risk.
The crypto market faces short-term capital competition but remains primarily driven by its own cycles: Some AI-related tokens may experience capital diversion pressure, but the long-term trend of the crypto market still depends more on macro liquidity, regulatory environment, and the Bitcoin cycle.
The real focus should be on whether the high valuations can be realized: If future revenue growth, commercialization progress, or profitability improvement fall short of market expectations, these companies and the tech growth sector could face repricing pressure.
In 2026, the capital market is welcoming one of the most anticipated waves of tech IPOs in recent years.
Discussions surrounding the listing process of the three super unicorns — SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic — continue to heat up on Wall Street, in Silicon Valley, and within the crypto market. Based on SpaceX's target IPO valuation and the latest funding valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic, the combined valuation scale of the three companies exceeds $3.5 trillion. If the listing plans proceed as expected by the market, this will become one of the largest tech IPO waves in recent years. Specifically, SpaceX's target valuation is about $1.75 trillion, OpenAI's valuation is about $852 billion, and Anthropic's valuation is about $965 billion. It is worth noting that Anthropic's current funding valuation is higher than OpenAI's, but this mainly reflects different funding rounds and market pricing expectations, not that its commercial scale has already surpassed OpenAI. Regardless of the final offering price adjustments, this will be one of the largest and most impactful tech IPO waves in recent years.
Such a massive scale naturally raises concerns about liquidity. Some investors believe the listings of the three companies could absorb a large amount of capital, putting pressure on other growth stocks and even impacting the crypto market. Others worry that the sustained hype around AI and space concepts is forming a new asset bubble. If post-listing performance falls short of expectations, it could trigger a repricing of the entire tech sector and even the risk asset market.
At the same time, some view the fear of a "capital siphon effect" as significantly exaggerated. The total market capitalization of US stocks is already in the tens of trillions of dollars, and super IPOs primarily represent capital reallocation, not capital disappearance. Historically, whether it was Alibaba or Saudi Aramco, similar discussions arose, but neither ultimately became the trigger for a market crash. So, what's different this time? What do the listings of these three companies truly signify? Do they really have the power to crash the stock and crypto markets?
SpaceX: What the Market Is Buying Is No Longer Rockets, But Global Infrastructure
If one were to choose the most legendary company among the three, SpaceX would undoubtedly be the strongest candidate. Since its founding in 2002, Elon Musk has spent over two decades transforming a startup into a core force in the global commercial aerospace industry. For a long time, public perception of SpaceX was primarily centered on rocket launches and space exploration, but now the capital market's valuation logic for it has fundamentally shifted.
According to disclosed IPO documents, the company's revenue for 2025 was approximately $18.67 billion. Starlink-related business revenue accounted for about $11.39 billion, roughly 61% of total revenue, making it the company's main income source. Compared to rocket launch business, Starlink clearly has greater growth potential. By deploying a low Earth orbit satellite network, Starlink is building a global data communication infrastructure; its business model is closer to an internet platform than a traditional aerospace company. For investors, SpaceX's core value is no longer rockets, but a network platform capable of reaching global users.
This is also a key reason some investors are willing to support its target IPO valuation of around $1.75 trillion. From a valuation perspective, some investors view SpaceX's current logic as closer to an "aerospace version of Amazon" or a "space-based AWS." The market's focus has gradually shifted from rocket launch business to the global communications infrastructure network represented by Starlink. Theoretically, as the network deployment matures, the marginal cost of adding new users is expected to decrease, while user growth could bring long-term and stable cash flow. Meanwhile, government contracts, commercial launches, and the future commercial application of Starship provide additional growth avenues.
Of course, such a high valuation is not without controversy. According to public information, the company still recorded a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion in 2025. For traditional investors, a company not yet sustainably profitable achieving a trillion-dollar valuation may seem hard to comprehend. But Wall Street clearly cares more about long-term growth potential. Both Starlink expansion and Starship R&D are typical heavy-upfront-investment projects. The market is willing to tolerate current profitability pressures on the premise of believing these investments can translate into greater future market share.
More importantly, SpaceX's listing is not just a corporate financing event but also viewed as a significant milestone for the commercial aerospace industry. For a long time, the space industry has been seen as capital-intensive, with long cycles and limited exit channels. A successful SpaceX listing would significantly enhance the financing capability and valuation levels of the entire industry chain, benefiting everything from satellite manufacturing to ground communication equipment and aerospace material suppliers.
However, precisely because of SpaceX's massive size, its listing has become a major source of market concern over liquidity pressure. Based on current market circulating issuance plans, SpaceX could become one of the largest IPOs in history. For large institutional investors, this means they must adjust their portfolios in advance to free up space for new share subscriptions. Some tech growth stocks, high-valuation AI concept stocks, and even some risk assets could become sources of funds. Therefore, many analysts refer to SpaceX as the "super capital magnet" in this IPO wave.
OpenAI and Anthropic: Two Tickets to the AI Era
If SpaceX represents future infrastructure, then OpenAI and Anthropic represent future productivity.
Over the past three years, generative AI has rapidly evolved from a lab technology to one of the most important investment themes in the global capital market. Starting with the launch of ChatGPT, artificial intelligence has almost reshaped the development logic of the entire tech industry. Whether it's Microsoft, Google, or Amazon, all are engaged in a new round of competition centered on AI. At the heart of this wave are OpenAI and Anthropic.
OpenAI is widely regarded as one of the most important beneficiaries of this generative AI wave. With ChatGPT, the company transitioned from a research institution to a commercial platform in an extremely short time. API services, enterprise-level solutions, and ecosystem partnerships are driving rapid revenue growth. Although the company is still in a high-investment phase, investors generally believe OpenAI has the potential to become the next-generation software platform. After completing a new funding round in March 2026, the company's valuation reached about $852 billion and it has confidentially filed for an IPO. The market widely speculates that if the IPO proceeds smoothly in the future, its valuation could potentially approach the trillion-dollar range, but no official valuation guidance has been disclosed yet.
Compared to OpenAI, Anthropic's development path has been relatively low-key, but its growth rate has similarly attracted market attention. Founded much later than OpenAI, the company quickly gained recognition from enterprise clients with its Claude series models and continued focus on AI safety and reliability. According to the latest funding round disclosures, Anthropic's valuation reached about $965 billion, higher than OpenAI's current funding valuation of approximately $852 billion. Meanwhile, the company has also confidentially filed for an IPO. For many institutional investors, Anthropic represents a different AI development path — placing greater emphasis on enterprise scenarios, risk control, and long-term governance structures.
From a capital market perspective, the listings of OpenAI and Anthropic are far more significant than the companies themselves. Over the past few years, the AI concept has almost dominated the global tech stock valuation system, but the pure-play AI industry leaders available for direct investment have been very limited. Nvidia is more of a compute provider, while Microsoft and Google are comprehensive tech platforms. OpenAI and Anthropic are among the few companies that can directly represent the value of the large model industry.
This means that once the two companies go public, global capital will have the first opportunity to directly invest in large foundational model companies. For many institutions, this appeal could even surpass that of some traditional tech giants. Precisely because of this, many investors have started to worry: when capital concentrates on AI leaders, will other tech assets and even the crypto market experience significant diversion?
Why Is the Market Worried That the Three IPOs Will "Drain" Market Liquidity?
In fact, whenever super IPOs appear, similar concerns resurface.
The logic behind it is not complicated. An IPO is essentially the primary market supplying new shares to the secondary market, and the funds used by institutional investors to participate in subscriptions don't appear out of thin air. For large pension funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, and hedge funds, participating in a new issue often means freeing up funds from existing portfolios. Therefore, when multiple super-large IPOs appear simultaneously, the flow of funds from other assets to the new shares is almost inevitable.
From this perspective, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic indeed possess the conditions to create a "siphon effect." Based on current market expectations, the combined valuation of the three companies exceeds $3.5 trillion. Even if the actual circulating share proportion is far lower than this figure, it is still enough to become one of the most important capital allocation directions in the global capital market. For many institutions bullish on AI and tech innovation long-term, participating in these IPOs is not just an investment opportunity but also a strategic allocation.
The market's concern isn't focused on the IPO itself, but on where the funds might flow from. If institutional investors choose to reduce holdings of existing tech stocks to participate in the subscriptions, then some growth sectors could face short-term pressure. If the funding sources extend further to high-risk assets, then some crypto assets could also be affected. Therefore, whenever a large IPO approaches, discussions about "liquidity drain" emerge.
However, the issue is that theoretical fund diversion does not equate to a market crash.
The total market capitalization of US-listed stocks is approaching $80 trillion, with daily trading volumes also reaching considerable levels. Even if all three companies eventually complete their listings, the proportion of shares actually entering the market circulation will remain limited. Historical experience shows that what truly determines market direction is never new supply but the overall liquidity environment. When the market is in an easing cycle, even super-large IPOs can often be quickly absorbed. When the market is in a tightening cycle, even without IPOs, it can still experience pullbacks due to economic slowdowns or rising interest rates.
In other words, super IPOs are more like amplifiers than root causes. If the market itself is in a fragile state, then a large IPO could exacerbate volatility. But if market liquidity is ample and risk appetite is high, IPOs are often just part of capital rotation.
What Does Historical Experience Tell Us?
Looking back at the capital market over the past two decades, large IPOs attracting attention are not rare, but cases that truly lead to systemic risk are extremely rare.
In 2014, when Alibaba listed on the NYSE, its fundraising size set a global record at the time. The market then also worried that the massive fundraising would impact US stocks. However, facts proved that Alibaba's listing primarily attracted global capital's attention to China's internet industry and did not alter the overall trend of the US stock market. In the following years, the US stock market continued its bull run.
In 2019, Saudi Aramco completed nearly $30 billion in financing, again setting a new global IPO record. Considering the global economic slowdown and rising geopolitical risks at the time, many analysts believed such large financing needs could affect market liquidity. But the final result similarly proved the market's ability to absorb super IPOs far exceeded expectations.
Even Arm's listing, which has attracted much attention recently, did not have a decisive impact on the overall trend of tech stocks. Short-term volatility certainly existed, but it manifested more as capital reallocation within the industry rather than the disappearance of overall market liquidity.
The fundamental reason for this phenomenon is that the capital market is not a fixed-capacity pool. The listing of high-quality assets often attracts new capital into the market, not just siphons funds from old assets. Especially for global institutional investors, when truly scarce targets appear, they often accompany new allocation demands rather than simple internal reshuffling.
Therefore, from historical experience, market volatility caused by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is not surprising, but equating it directly to a market crash lacks sufficient basis.
Impact on the Stock Market: Short-Term Volatility Inevitable, Long-Term More Like a Valuation Reshuffle
If the three IPOs would have the most direct impact on any market, the answer is undoubtedly tech stocks.
Over the past few years, AI has become one of the strongest investment themes in the global capital market. From Nvidia to cloud computing, from data centers to software services, many companies have received valuation premiums due to AI association. However, companies truly representing large model value creation have not entered the public market. The emergence of OpenAI and Anthropic means investors have their first opportunity to directly invest in core AI assets.
This change will likely lead to repricing within the AI sector.
Companies relying heavily on narrative drivers may face valuation premium contraction because investors finally have purer AI targets. Meanwhile, enterprises that can truly benefit from AI infrastructure expansion, such as compute suppliers, data center operators, and enterprise software platforms, may continue to receive capital support.
SpaceX's impact is somewhat different. For satellite communications, commercial aerospace, and related infrastructure enterprises, SpaceX's listing will become a new industry valuation anchor. The market will have a publicly traded commercial aerospace leader as a reference for the first time, potentially driving repricing across the entire industry chain.
From a long-term perspective, the listings of these three companies are more likely to reinforce the importance of the tech sector rather than weaken it. Over time, once they meet relevant criteria and are included in major indices, a large number of ETFs and index funds will passively allocate to these companies. By then, the scale of global capital inflows could even exceed that during the IPO stage itself.
Therefore, for the stock market, what is truly worth watching is not the performance on IPO day, but whether these companies can deliver on the growth expectations priced by the market in the coming years.
Impact on the Crypto Market: Competition Exists, but Not Necessarily Bearish
Compared to the stock market, the crypto market is more sensitive to capital flow changes, so discussions are more intense.
Over the past few years, AI and Crypto have been almost the two main areas of focus for venture capital. Some venture capital and growth capital funds have exposure to both AI and Crypto sectors, creating significant overlap in funding sources. When OpenAI and Anthropic officially enter the public market, some institutional capital shifting towards AI assets is highly probable.
This competition may be particularly noticeable for some AI-related tokens.
When AI companies were not yet public, many investors chose to express bullishness on the AI industry through AI-related tokens. But when OpenAI or Anthropic become publicly traded assets, investors will naturally ask themselves: if they can directly hold the most core companies in the AI industry, is there still a need to bear the higher volatility and risk of some concept tokens?
From this perspective, some narrative-driven AI tokens, VC concept projects, and crypto assets lacking real revenue support could indeed face capital diversion pressure.
However, extrapolating this pressure into a "crypto market crash" similarly lacks basis.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have gradually formed relatively independent operating logic. ETF fund flows, regulatory environment, global monetary policy, and Bitcoin's own cycles typically have a more decisive impact than a single IPO event. Historically, US stocks and crypto markets have experienced both synchronized rises and significant divergence, making it difficult to explain their movements with a single event.
More importantly, AI and blockchain are not entirely competitive. As AI application scale continues to expand, decentralized compute networks, on-chain data markets, and AI Agent infrastructure may actually gain new development opportunities. Long-term, the prosperity of the AI industry may not weaken Crypto but could instead create new convergence scenarios.
The Real Thing to Guard Against Isn't the IPO, But Valuation Expectations
If there is a real risk associated with the three IPOs, it doesn't come from the listings themselves, but from market expectations for future growth.
Whether it's SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic, their current valuations are already built upon extremely optimistic future assumptions. Investors are willing to grant trillion-dollar valuations because they believe these companies can become the world's most important infrastructure platforms in the future. If revenue growth slows, commercialization progress falls short of expectations, or profitability improvement lags behind market forecasts, then repricing will be inevitable.
This risk will first impact the AI sector and high-growth tech stocks, not the entire market. The higher the market's future expectations, the greater the adjustment tends to be when reality falls short.
From this perspective, what the market really needs to watch is not the IPO itself, but the ability to deliver performance after the IPO.
Conclusion
The listings of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are more like a concentrated pricing event by the global capital market for next-generation tech infrastructure and AI platforms, rather than a precursor to a market crash. In the short term, capital diversion, sector rotation, and valuation repricing are almost inevitable. Some AI concept stocks and crypto assets may also face competitive pressure. But historical experience shows that super IPOs rarely become the direct cause of systemic risk and are even less capable of determining the long-term direction of stock or crypto markets alone.
What truly determines market trends are still the macro liquidity environment, corporate profitability, and investor risk appetite. For investors, rather than worrying whether the three IPOs will crash the market, it's better to focus on whether the growth logic behind these trillion-dollar valuations can ultimately be realized. After all, the capital market is never afraid of big dreams. What truly hurts the market are unfulfilled expectations.
