Daily key market review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
Brent crude oil prices have once again broken through $100 per barrel as the market reprices "supply disruption risks." Crude oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have all risen to their highest levels since the US-Iran-Israel conflict began, while the three major US stock indices all fell by over 1.5%. With the exception of the energy sector, all other sectors are generally under pressure.
The market's main concern is a further escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Both Trump and Iran's new supreme leader have made strong statements, making de-escalation unlikely in the short term. Richard Dalton, the former UK ambassador to Iran, stated that the US-Israel conflict "lacks a clear plan" and could lead to a loss of control. Goldman Sachs warned that if the conflict continues, Brent crude prices could surpass the historical high of $147.50 per barrel set in 2008.
CME CEO Terry Duffy warned that if the US government intervenes in the oil futures market, it could trigger an "epic disaster." In response to soaring oil prices, US Treasury Secretary Besent urgently stated that the US Navy will escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily allow countries to purchase stranded Russian crude oil to stabilize prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that the war in Iran has caused the largest oil supply disruption in history, further pushing up global inflation expectations.
As oil prices surge and inflationary pressures rise, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been shattered. Traders are pricing in less than one 25 basis point cut for 2026, and market confidence in the Fed restarting an easing cycle has further weakened. Analysis suggests that rising energy and food prices will have a greater impact on future inflation data, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates to address risks.
Amplified by the "weekend effect," market volatility has increased further. Investors, worried about unexpected weekend events, are choosing to exit the market, leading to significant capital outflows. The dual pressures of high oil prices and rising Treasury yields may reshape market trading logic, with the energy sector being sought after while risk assets remain under pressure. Analysts warn that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, trading strategies from the past two years could be completely rewritten.
Bitcoin Market
Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $62,000 to $72,000 range for over a month. Despite the spread of the US-Iran war and 1.85 million continuing US jobless claims adding to macro gloom, Bitcoin has defied macro headwinds and geopolitical turmoil, maintaining its price above $70,000 for four consecutive days.
In terms of options, data from [email protected] shows that $1.8 billion worth of BTC options expired today, with a max pain point of $69,000. Notably, today's expiring options account for only 6% of the total open interest, the lowest level in recent years, indicating extremely low Bitcoin trading activity. However, this week's max pain point did not continue to decline, marking the first rebound in the downward trend seen over recent months.
The current BTC price is stuck between the realized price of $54,400 and the true market average price of $78,000. After rebounding 17% from below $60,000, the 1 to 4-week short-term cost line has found temporary support. However, there is selling pressure from 2.42 million coins held by long-term holders (1-2 years) at the $78,880 level. The options market has accumulated $180 million in Gamma risk (an options risk indicator) at the $74,000 level for March 20th.
The miner shutdown price range of $62,000 to $70,000 is being severely tested, with macro support from the 200-week moving average ($68,000) and the 300-week moving average ($57,000) in jeopardy. However, the BTC/Gold ratio is showing a bullish divergence at the key support level of 12-13. Coupled with the historical pattern of the S&P 500 rebounding 19% after a 16% pullback in US midterm election years and BTC rebounding 54% after a 56% crash, CryptoQuant's Bull Market Score Index has jumped from 10 to 30, suggesting the market is brewing hopes for a reversal amid panic.
Bearish Views
The core logic of the bear camp is that the current rise is merely a dead cat bounce and liquidity sweep, miners are in a dire state of bleeding, and the macro downtrend has not reversed.
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KillaXBT warns that if key support cannot be held, the market will inevitably bleed lower, with a macro target pointing squarely below 60K.
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Murphy expects the weak rebound to peak between $74,000 and $79,000 and plans to short decisively when that range is touched.
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Greeny points out that miners' survival line is being breached, the 200-week MA is an extremely dangerous false support, and breaking to lower levels is only a matter of time.
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Donaxbt直言当前走势是典型的“死猫反弹”,预计在触及上方阻力后将继续顺应宏观趋势下跌。 (Donaxbt states plainly that the current price action is a typical "dead cat bounce" and expects it to continue falling in line with the macro trend after hitting resistance above.)
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LP_NXT observes significant selling pressure above and believes the market is more likely to test deeper liquidity on the downside.
Bullish Views
The core logic of the bull camp is that technicals are showing rare strong buy signals, and institutional spot buying is aggressively accumulating regardless of price.
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Shang notes that TradFi buying has强势回归 (强势回归 - strongly returned), with geopolitical避险资金 (避险资金 - risk-off capital) voting with their feet, shifting massively from traditional safe-haven assets to the crypto market.
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Sykodelic emphasizes that the current move is绝非2022年的翻版 (绝非2022年的翻版 - definitely not a repeat of 2022), with multiple technical indicators forming golden crosses and buy signals, inevitably pushing prices higher.
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Daan Crypto Trades says the market has seen its first solid weekly green candle in nearly two months, indicating bottom support has emerged.
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Titan of Crypto asserts that a strong break above the resistance zone of the true market average price will彻底终结下跌趋势,迎来宏观反转 (彻底终结下跌趋势,迎来宏观反转 - completely end the downtrend and usher in a macro reversal).
Market Dynamics
Yesterday, a whale attempted to exchange $50 million USDT for AAVE on the Aave interface but ignored the slippage warning, ultimately receiving only 324 AAVE, resulting in nearly $50 million evaporating. This slippage disaster sparked intense debate within the industry about DeFi safety rails. Aave founder Stani.eth urgently responded, confirming the system had fulfilled its warning obligations but, out of sympathy, promised to refund $600,000 in transaction fees and called for the industry to establish better user protection mechanisms.
Key Data (As of March 13, 13:00 HKT)
(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
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Bitcoin ETF: +$53.8681 million, net inflows for 4 consecutive days
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Ethereum ETF: +$72.3677 million, net inflows for 3 consecutive days
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XRP ETF: -$6.0806 million
SOL ETF: +$3.9248 million
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Fear & Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Fear)
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Upbit 24h Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, ENSO, NOM
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Sector Performance: Crypto sectors generally rose, AI sector led gains exceeding 7%
24-Hour Liquidation Data: 61,671 people were liquidated globally, with total liquidations amounting to $197 million, including BTC liquidations of $76.62 million, ETH liquidations of $52.58 million, and SOL liquidations of $10.78 million.
Today's Outlook
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Upbit will delist Solar (SXP) and Oasys (OAS) on March 13
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Binance Wallet will launch Unitas Labs (UP) subscription on March 13
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ROBO token claims will end on March 13
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Coinbase adds Billions (BILL) to its listing roadmap
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Binance will launch EWYUSDT USDT-margined perpetual contract tracking the Korean stock market ETF
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Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens worth about $10.5 million on March 13
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WBT will unlock approximately 81.5 million tokens worth about $4.12 billion on March 13
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Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens worth about $3.6 million on March 15
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Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens worth about $4.8 million on March 15
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CONX will unlock approximately 1.32 million tokens worth about $15.27 million on March 15
Top 100 coins by market cap, biggest gainers today: Pi Network up 29.7%, ASI Alliance up 22.6%, Render up 20.1%, River up 17.3%, Bittensor up 14%.
Hot News
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Analyst: The whale who lost $50 million due to high slippage is suspected to be linked to Garrett Jin
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Fed to initiate a 90-day comment period for Basel III proposal, Bitcoin faces 1250% risk weight
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A whale, dormant for four months, spent 20.058 million sUSDS to open a long ETH position on-chain
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Bitmine疑似今日再次买入3万枚ETH,约合6189万美元 (Bitmine疑似 - suspected to have bought another 30,000 ETH today, approx. $61.89 million)
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疑似Trend Research钱包4小时前借币卖空2.7万枚ETH (疑似 - Suspected Trend Research wallet borrowed and shorted 27,000 ETH 4 hours ago)
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某巨鲸再次从Kraken提出10421枚ETH,近3日累计囤积73744.98枚ETH (A whale again withdrew 10,421 ETH from Kraken, accumulating 73,744.98 ETH in the past 3 days)
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US Senator: Expect crypto market structure bill will not pass before April
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Binance Alpha to remove MIRROR, SHARDS, FST, and other tokens from the recommended list
