Tracking 118 Coins Launched in 2025: 85% Are Below Their Initial Valuation at Launch

深潮Pubblicato 2025-12-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-22

Introduzione

An analysis of 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) that occurred in 2025 reveals a significant downturn in post-launch performance. The study compared each token's current fully diluted valuation (FDV) to its valuation at issuance. Key findings show that 84.7% (100 out of 118) of these assets are currently valued below their initial TGE price. This indicates that approximately 4 out of every 5 new tokens are trading at a lower valuation than at launch. The median token experienced a 71% decline in FDV (and a 67% drop in market cap) since its release. Only 15% of the tokens analyzed have maintained a valuation higher than at their TGE. The report concludes that participating in a TGE can no longer be considered a form of "early investment" under these market conditions.

Author:Ash

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

We tracked 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) launched in 2025 and compared their current fully diluted valuation (FDV) with their valuation at issuance. The results are as follows:

  • 84.7% (100 out of 118) currently have a valuation lower than at TGE;

  • This means approximately 4 out of every 5 newly issued tokens are valued below their issuance level;

  • The median token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) has fallen by 71% since issuance (market cap down 67%);

  • Only 15% of tokens remained "green" (i.e., above issuance valuation) after TGE.

Nowadays, participating in a TGE can hardly be considered "early investment" anymore. How lamentable.

View the complete data via the link

Domande pertinenti

QWhat percentage of the 118 tokens tracked from 2025 TGEs are currently valued below their initial valuation?

A84.7% (100 out of 118 tokens) are currently valued below their initial TGE valuation.

QHow does the median token's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) perform compared to its issuance valuation?

AThe median token's FDV has declined by 71% since its issuance.

QWhat proportion of the tracked tokens maintained a valuation higher than their initial issuance?

AOnly 15% of the tokens remained 'green' (valued above their initial issuance valuation).

QAccording to the article, what is the current perception of participating in a Token Generation Event (TGE)?

AParticipating in a TGE is no longer considered 'early investment'.

QWhat metric, besides FDV, is mentioned to have declined for the median token since issuance?

AThe market capitalization of the median token has declined by 67% since issuance.

Letture associate

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is facing significant technical challenges as its growth outpaces its current infrastructure on Polygon. Users are experiencing laggy transactions, unresponsive orders, and delayed confirmations, severely impacting the trading experience. In response, DeFi Engineering VP Josh Stevens outlined a comprehensive engineering overhaul. The plan includes reducing on-chain data delays, fixing order cancellation issues, rebuilding the central limit order book (CLOB), improving website performance, and developing a unified SDK and API. A major revelation was the ongoing "chain migration," indicating a potential move away from Polygon. The core issue is that Polymarket has evolved from a simple prediction market into a high-frequency trading platform, making Polygon's limitations—such as block space, gas fees, and block time—a ceiling for further growth. The migration is not just a simple chain switch but a fundamental rebuild of its trading system to support more complex products like perpetual contracts (Perps). This announcement has sparked competition among chains like Solana, Sui, and Algorand, all vying to host Polymarket. For Polygon, losing this key application, which contributes significantly to its gas fee revenue, would be a major setback. The real test for Polymarket is no longer attracting users but proving it can provide a stable, reliable trading environment that retains them.

Odaily星球日报8 min fa

Stuck Polymarket: The Real Test After Riding the Traffic Boom Has Arrived

Odaily星球日报8 min fa

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

The author, Alex Xu, explains his decision to significantly reduce his Bitcoin holdings (from full to ~30% of his portfolio) during the current bull cycle, citing a lowered long-term outlook for BTC's price appreciation in the next cycle. He outlines six key reasons for this reduced expectation: 1. **Diminished Growth Drivers:** The narrative of exponential user adoption has largely played out with institutional ETF adoption. The next major growth phase—adoption by sovereign national reserves or central banks—seems unlikely in the near future. 2. **Personal Opportunity Cost:** More attractive investment opportunities have emerged in other assets, such as undervalued companies. 3. **Industry-Wide Contraction:** The broader crypto industry is struggling, with most Web3 business models (SocialFi, GameFi, DePIN) failing. This overall萧条 (depression) reduces the fundamental demand and consensus for Bitcoin. 4. **Strain on Major Buyer:** MicroStrategy, a major corporate buyer of BTC, faces rising financing expenses for its debt, which could slow its purchasing rate and create significant marginal pressure on the market. 5. **Increased Competition from Gold:** The emergence of "tokenized gold" has closed the functional gap (portability, divisibility) between physical gold and Bitcoin, offering a strong competitor in the non-sovereign store-of-value space. 6. **Security Budget Concerns:** The block reward halving continues to exacerbate the long-standing issue of funding Bitcoin's network security, with new fee source explorations like Ordinals and L2s largely failing. The author's decision to hold a significant (though reduced) position reflects a cautious, not bearish, outlook. He remains open to increasing his exposure if the fundamental reasons for his skepticism change or if new positive catalysts emerge.

marsbit46 min fa

Lowering Expectations for BTC's Next Bull Market

marsbit46 min fa

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran has announced a comprehensive plan to assert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint. The proposed measures include requiring all vessels to obtain Iranian permission for passage, imposing fees for security, environmental protection, and navigation management—preferably paid in Iranian rials—and absolutely banning Israeli ships. Vessels from countries deemed hostile by Iran’s top security bodies may also be barred. Analysts suggest Iran’s motives are multifaceted: increasing pressure on the U.S. and Israel by leveraging control over oil transit to influence global prices and inflation; creating a new revenue stream, potentially exceeding $7.7 billion annually, to counter Western sanctions and support postwar reconstruction; and using transit permissions as bargaining chips in future negotiations, notably with the U.S. However, the plan faces significant practical and diplomatic challenges. Enforcing comprehensive interception and fee collection in the busy waterway, patrolled by international military forces, would be difficult. The U.S. has already countering with a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to intercept any ship paying fees, potentially strangling Iran’s oil exports and fee revenue. Broad international opposition, led by European and Gulf states, and legal controversies further complicate implementation. The proposal may ultimately serve more as a negotiating tactic than a feasible policy, with its execution remaining highly uncertain.

marsbit1 h fa

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片