Tracking 118 Coins Launched in 2025: 85% Are Below Their Initial Valuation at Launch

深潮Pubblicato 2025-12-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-22

Introduzione

An analysis of 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) that occurred in 2025 reveals a significant downturn in post-launch performance. The study compared each token's current fully diluted valuation (FDV) to its valuation at issuance. Key findings show that 84.7% (100 out of 118) of these assets are currently valued below their initial TGE price. This indicates that approximately 4 out of every 5 new tokens are trading at a lower valuation than at launch. The median token experienced a 71% decline in FDV (and a 67% drop in market cap) since its release. Only 15% of the tokens analyzed have maintained a valuation higher than at their TGE. The report concludes that participating in a TGE can no longer be considered a form of "early investment" under these market conditions.

Author:Ash

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

We tracked 118 Token Generation Events (TGEs) launched in 2025 and compared their current fully diluted valuation (FDV) with their valuation at issuance. The results are as follows:

  • 84.7% (100 out of 118) currently have a valuation lower than at TGE;

  • This means approximately 4 out of every 5 newly issued tokens are valued below their issuance level;

  • The median token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) has fallen by 71% since issuance (market cap down 67%);

  • Only 15% of tokens remained "green" (i.e., above issuance valuation) after TGE.

Nowadays, participating in a TGE can hardly be considered "early investment" anymore. How lamentable.

View the complete data via the link

Domande pertinenti

QWhat percentage of the 118 tokens tracked from 2025 TGEs are currently valued below their initial valuation?

A84.7% (100 out of 118 tokens) are currently valued below their initial TGE valuation.

QHow does the median token's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) perform compared to its issuance valuation?

AThe median token's FDV has declined by 71% since its issuance.

QWhat proportion of the tracked tokens maintained a valuation higher than their initial issuance?

AOnly 15% of the tokens remained 'green' (valued above their initial issuance valuation).

QAccording to the article, what is the current perception of participating in a Token Generation Event (TGE)?

AParticipating in a TGE is no longer considered 'early investment'.

QWhat metric, besides FDV, is mentioned to have declined for the median token since issuance?

AThe market capitalization of the median token has declined by 67% since issuance.

Letture associate

GitHub, Transfixed by AI

On the night of February 9th, GitHub suffered a major outage caused by a simple configuration change—reducing a cache refresh interval from 12 to 2 hours—that triggered a cascade of failures. This was not an isolated event, but part of a broader pattern. In early 2026, GitHub experienced at least 8 major incidents, failing to meet its promised 99.9% availability. These outages stemmed from structural issues: explosive growth in load, tight service coupling, and insufficient protection against abnormal traffic. This unprecedented load is driven by AI Agents. In 2025, GitHub handled ~1 billion commits. By 2026, weekly commits reached 275 million, projecting to ~14 billion for the year—a 14x increase. AI tools like Claude Code now contribute 4.5% of all public repository commits, with weekly submissions surging 25x in just three months. AI-generated pull requests jumped from 4 million to 17 million per month in half a year. Unlike human developers, AI Agents work continuously, generating commits at a scale that overwhelms infrastructure designed for human rhythms. The surge also shattered GitHub's business model. Copilot's flat-rate pricing, based on assisting human developers, became unsustainable as Agentic AI sessions consumed resources worth hundreds of dollars for a few dollars in fees. In response, GitHub imposed usage limits and, by June 1st, shifted to a pay-per-use "AI Credits" system. Facing this new reality, GitHub realized a 10x scaling plan was insufficient. It announced a need to *redesign* its architecture for 30x current scale—decoupling services, adding fault isolation, and improving change management to prevent cascading failures. Other platforms like Stripe and AWS are facing similar challenges with AI Agents. Fundamentally, GitHub is transitioning from a human collaboration platform to an "exhaust pipe" for automated AI workflows. Its detailed post-mortem reports aim to maintain trust during this turbulent rebuild. The February outage was not just a technical glitch, but a signal of the software industry's entry into a new, AI-driven era.

marsbit31 min fa

GitHub, Transfixed by AI

marsbit31 min fa

Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

Facing massive paper losses exceeding $90 billion each amidst a sharp market downturn, "Digital Asset Treasury" (DAT) giants Strategy and Bitmine find themselves in a precarious position, but with different underlying risks. Strategy, heavily invested in Bitcoin (BTC), faces significant financial strain. Its strategy relies heavily on debt, including convertible notes and preferred stock (STRC) requiring substantial dividend payments. With its cash reserves dwindling and BTC offering no staking yield for cash flow, Strategy's high leverage makes it vulnerable. A continued price decline could force asset sales to meet obligations, potentially creating a negative feedback loop. Its market value has already fallen sharply. In contrast, Bitmine, an Ethereum (ETH) holder, appears on firmer financial ground. It primarily funds its purchases through equity offerings (like ATM programs), avoiding debt pressure. It also generates income by staking a large portion of its ETH holdings. While not immune to market drops and shareholder dilution concerns, Bitmine maintains more flexibility, recently announcing a new preferred share offering to raise further capital. The core divergence lies in their financing: Bitmine uses equity (investor money), while Strategy uses debt (borrowed money). Consequently, Bitmine currently faces less immediate liquidity pressure than Strategy, which must navigate the dual challenge of servicing debt/dividends and a declining core asset (BTC) price.

marsbit38 min fa

Both Suffer Massive Losses Exceeding $90 Billion, Which Is in Greater Peril: Strategy or Bitmine?

marsbit38 min fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片