Original Title: The Trump paradox: What's good for him is weighing down his party
Original Author: the Washington Post
Translator: Peggy
Editor's Note: The political paradox surrounding Trump is becoming increasingly clear: while his approval rating among the national electorate continues to decline, his dominance within the Republican Party is growing ever stronger.
The core discussion of this article is not whether Trump can still influence the Republican Party, but rather how this influence is reshaping the party's electoral prospects. On one hand, he forces party candidates to pledge allegiance to him through endorsements, primary challenges, and political purges. On the other hand, this political vetting centered on personal loyalty may also weaken the Republican Party's competitiveness in the general election.
From Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy, to the Indiana state senate and Texas Senate primaries, Trump's "politics of vengeance" continues to demonstrate his ability to mobilize the Republican grassroots. The problem, however, is that winning a party primary does not equate to winning a national election. For the GOP, the real risk is not that Trump cannot control the party, but that the deeper his control, the narrower the party's appeal may become among independent and moderate voters.
What is more noteworthy is that Trump's strength has not translated into effective legislative capabilities. On issues such as the gas tax, voting rights bills, immigration funding, and military action against Iran, there remains significant tension between him and congressional Republicans. This means that while Trump can force party members to declare their loyalty, he may not be able to make them bear the full political cost for his agenda.
Trump has built a party that is highly loyal to him. Even when his executive actions anger the broader public, Republicans still choose to follow him. This political structure, in turn, undermines his influence with voters beyond his base.
For the midterm elections, the biggest variable the Republican Party currently faces may not be the Democrats, but Trump himself. For Trump, victories in primaries are consolidating his authority within the party; but for the GOP, these victories may also be pushing it towards a more difficult general election to win.
The following is the original text:
U.S. President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn of the White House after arriving on Marine One on Friday. (Eric Lee/Pool/The Washington Post)
President Donald Trump does not believe in the so-called "laws of political gravity."
Nationally, as his standing sinks—multiple polls show his approval rating near historic lows—he is tightening his grip on the Republican Party, jeopardizing the electoral prospects this fall of the party that now obeys his will through a series of unpopular, and at times brazen, actions.
The result: a president who is historically powerful in demanding political fealty within his party, yet whose frequent executive actions continue to alienate the broader public. This paradox leaves him increasingly unwilling, and less able, to work through Congress on issues that matter most to voters. And it is a cycle that Trump appears neither willing nor able to break.
On Tuesday, Trump claimed one of his most coveted trophies: Libertarian Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), an eight-term congressman who was one of Trump's most prominent GOP critics in the House and who led an effort to force the release of government files on the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, was ousted. Trump initially opposed the move, changing his stance only after he realized he could not stop it.
Massie was soundly defeated in the primary by a previously little-known political newcomer, former Navy SEAL Ed Garlean, who was personally selected by Trump and backed by tens of millions of dollars from Trump-aligned groups.
Massie's defeat came three days after Louisiana Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy also lost his race. Trump had called Cassidy "very disloyal." Five years ago, Cassidy voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Though the senator had spent years trying—often awkwardly—to repair the relationship, he ultimately failed even to make a runoff.
Earlier this month, Trump's "revenge tour" swept through Indiana, where Republican voters heeded his call to oust five of seven state senators who had refused Trump's demands to redraw the state's congressional maps. One race remains unresolved, with the latest vote count showing just a two-vote margin between the two candidates.
On Tuesday, Trump again flexed his political muscle: In the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff, he announced his support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The move frustrated many Republicans on Capitol Hill, who view Cornyn as the stronger general-election candidate; if Paxton wins, the GOP may have to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure its candidate prevails in the deep-red state, money that may be needed to support candidates elsewhere.
But as often is the case, Trump made clear that the decision was personal, not tactical or policy-driven. Cornyn has occasionally criticized Trump in the past, though he has worked hard recently to curry favor, even recently introducing legislation to name one of the country's longest highways after Trump.
It did not work. In a social media post endorsing Paxton, Trump wrote, "John Cornyn is a good guy, and I have worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me during my difficult times."
"I actually think MAGA has never been more united," Trump told reporters Tuesday. But if Republicans are to maintain control of Congress in the fall election, they will need to secure a significant share of other voters. And in Trump's view, the election is tied to his own political survival.
In January, he told a gathering of Republican House members, "You've got to win the midterms, because if we don't win the midterms, then it's going to be—I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll be impeached."
But right now, the biggest drag on Republicans' ability to maintain their narrow House and Senate majorities is Trump himself. A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday is just the latest evidence: The public is deeply unhappy with his handling of the war in Iran and the cost of living, and even on immigration, his strongest issue, Trump trails by 15 points.
Among crucial independent voters, Trump's approval rating has sunk to 26 percent. Forty-seven percent of respondents said his policies have hurt them, up from 41 percent last fall. And perhaps the most alarming poll number for Republicans: Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year, leading by 11 points on the hypothetical question of which party they would support if the election were held today.
At the same time, even Republicans have been unnerved by some of Trump's recent attention-grabbing actions. These include his $100 billion lawsuit against the IRS this year over leaked tax returns, which he settled.
The settlement will create an $1.8 billion taxpayer-funded compensation fund for those who claim they have been persecuted by a "weaponized justice system" like Trump. Beneficiaries are likely to include some of those charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, when Trump supporters tried to overturn his loss in the 2020 presidential election.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday when asked about the fund, "I'm not a big fan."
Democrats were more blunt.
"The corruption has never been more naked, or more broad. But here is what is happening now: You write the checks, Trump and his cronies cash them. And the American taxpayer, already struggling with high prices, will pay the bill," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) at a hearing featuring acting Attorney General Todd Branch.
Under the settlement, Trump and his sons are barred from personally receiving payments from the so-called "anti-weaponization" fund. But the IRS will also be "permanently barred and precluded" from collecting any unpaid taxes owed by Trump, his family members or his businesses that accrued before the settlement was reached.
And for all of Trump's strength on unilateral executive actions, his political weakness is also sapping his influence to get things done through the legislative branch. Much of his agenda is stalled in Congress.
Neither Thune nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has embraced Trump's call for a gas tax holiday. The Senate has resisted his demands to end the filibuster, which Trump wants to use to pass his high-priority Save America Act, which includes a provision requiring people to prove their citizenship when registering to vote. Trump has called the bill necessary to secure elections, but opponents argue it would lead to voter suppression.
Another recent point of frustration for Trump: The Senate parliamentarian has refused to allow hundreds of millions of dollars for security costs for his deeply unpopular White House ballroom project to be tucked into an immigration enforcement funding bill under consideration.
For Trump, beyond the "golden halo" that comes with defeating incumbent Republicans, there may also be a shadow. These members will remain in office until January, and presumably will be less afraid of him.
On Tuesday, Cassidy, who just lost his primary, mounted one act of public defiance: For the first time, he voted to advance a resolution to stop Trump from continuing to order strikes against Iran.
"In Louisiana, I've heard from many, including supporters of President Trump, who are concerned about this war," Cassidy said in a statement.
In February, Massie told The Washington Post, "I have colleagues who are just waiting for their primary to be over before they start to develop a more independent voice."
For their own political survival, they may have to.
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