"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice; the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.
Bitcoin's price by the end of July showed double-digit recovery from its multi-year low. However, experts interviewed by "RBC-Crypto" do not expect the growth to continue and consider a drop below $60,000 possible. In their opinion, historical trends and macroeconomic factors contribute to the weakness of the crypto market, and August will become not a reversal period, but a month of "range testing."
At the end of July, the main cryptocurrency is trading around $63.5 thousand, which is approximately 50% below the historical peak of October 2025—$126.2 thousand per coin. In early July, the Bitcoin price ($BTC) fell to the lowest level since 2024—$58 thousand—and then grew almost uninterruptedly for several weeks to nearly $67 thousand. Thus, the narrow price range of $60-65 thousand has persisted since early June. For comparison, the $65-75 thousand range persisted from February to April with an attempt to consolidate around $80 thousand in May.
Pressure on the Bitcoin Price
Several experts believe that Bitcoin is in one of the worst macroeconomic situations. As a negative factor, Rufat Abyasov, founder of the GBI HOLDING Group, noted credit rates in the United States. Additionally, inflation and oil prices remain at high levels, which together exert the greatest pressure on the price of the main cryptocurrency.
This view was supported by Alexander Krayko, lead analyst at the crypto broker Cifra Markets, who stated that "for a full-fledged Bitcoin rally, low rates and consequently lower government bond yields are needed." The expert explained that excessively high rates attract investors to fixed-income instruments instead of cryptocurrencies and other similar speculative assets.
Furthermore, some investors choose stocks and other assets without guaranteed returns, which further intensifies the competition for capital flows for cryptocurrencies, noted Nikita Bredikhin, lead investment analyst at Go Invest. He added that traders currently "prefer trading stocks of semiconductor manufacturers and AI developers."
The experts' conclusions are confirmed by the outflow of funds from Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The first half of the year closed with a net outflow of $5.4 billion—the worst since the launch of ETFs in January 2024. In June alone, a record $4.5 billion flowed out. The inflow of funds in July, according to Abyasov, is "noise around zero," as the week ending July 24 brought in only $33.8 million.
The experts also drew attention to historical data—August is not a strong month for the crypto market, as noted by crypto expert Viktor Pershikov. This assessment is supported by actual data: the average August return for 2013-2025 is 1.12%, but the median is minus 7.49%. This indicates a predominance of negative periods.
Among the factors pressuring the Bitcoin price, Abyasov also mentioned the regulatory topic in the United States—the key crypto market bill, the CLARITY Act. The possibility of its passage is considered by many experts as a bullish signal for the crypto market in general and Bitcoin in particular, but it has not been approved for over a year.
What Should a Bitcoin Investor Do
We should not forget, Abyasov noted, "that we are observing the final phase before the start of a new Bitcoin cycle." He cited market statistics where each bear market lasted about 400 days. In this sense, he expressed the view that current conditions are excellent for accumulating cryptocurrency. But he indicated that we could still "see a short-term move below $60-55 thousand."
Many key players in the crypto market have expressed similar forecasts. Using historical or technical benchmarks, many experts have noted autumn as the point for a reversal from the bearish trend to growth, specifically in the autumn of this year.
Abyasov's base scenario is a corridor of $58–68 thousand (with a 50% probability). Key support is $60–61 thousand; a break below $58 thousand opens the path to $50–55 thousand (30% probability). A rise above $67 thousand with a target of $71–75 thousand would break the downtrend, but he assesses the chances of this at 20%.
Krayko pointed to roughly the same scenario, writing that Bitcoin could still rise to the $70 thousand mark, but then another wave of decline is highly likely to follow.
"In the horizon of the next two months, the target area remains around $53 thousand," noted Krayko, while believing that globally the market is already at good levels for long-term entry.
Nikita Bredikhin also recommends forming positions in Bitcoin and strong projects but warns against memecoins and young coins. The expert did not rule out another test of the $60 thousand level, where the lower boundary of the sideways trend is forming.
One of the most positive expectations for Bitcoin's price in August was shared by Pershikov, noting a high probability of a 7-10% increase in the crypto market capitalization. However, while allowing for a potential rise of $BTC to the $70 thousand mark, he added: "It is still a long way to the complete completion of the correction cycle. More or less serious movements can be expected no earlier than in Q4 of this year."
end-content
