The Altcoin Vector #46

AI热情点燃股市，日经大涨3%再新高，日元160关口附近波动，油价涨超2%，比特币跌至6.7万美元

华尔街日报53 min fa

日韩暴涨之外，新加坡股市历史新高，AI出口增长正带动本地循环

marsbit53 min fa

Glassnode spinout Cense raises €6.5 million seed round to transform crypto compliance for banks

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When Google Also 'Prints Stocks' to Build AI, Whose Narrative is Shattering the High Valuations of Neocloud?

Google has announced its first equity financing since 2005, a series of moves totaling $80 billion that signal a strategic challenge to Nvidia's GPU dominance in the AI compute market. This impacts "Neocloud" companies like CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN, whose valuations are heavily tied to Nvidia's perceived uniqueness. Google's three-part strategy involves: launching new TPU chips (TPU 8t/8i) and selling them to third parties for the first time; forming a $25 billion compute-as-a-service joint venture with Blackstone; and raising ~$50 billion in new equity (part of an $80B package) to fund AI infrastructure, underscoring the massive capital demands even for tech giants. This marks a divergence from Microsoft's path. Microsoft, lacking a mature in-house AI chip, relies heavily on outsourcing to Neocloud providers using Nvidia GPUs. Google, with its proprietary TPU, is pursuing vertical integration—building its own data centers, selling chips, and competing directly with Neocloud services. While Neocloud firms have strong near-term revenue from locked-in Nvidia GPU contracts (e.g., CoreWeave's ~$100B backlog), Google's moves undermine their long-term valuation narrative based on Nvidia's sole supremacy and perpetual supply shortage. TPU performance claims and adoption by firms like Anthropic add credibility to Google's alternative. The AI compute market is transitioning from a uniform seller's market to a layered one: top AI labs are diversifying their hardware stacks; hyperscalers are pursuing different chip strategies; and financing costs will become a critical differentiator, favoring players like Google with lower capital costs. Key metrics to watch include the progress of the Google-Blackstone JV, expansion of the TPU customer base beyond Anthropic, and potential shifts in Microsoft's sourcing strategy. If Google succeeds on these fronts, the Neocloud investment thesis will require significant reassessment.

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Jensen Huang's Latest Forecast on Marvell Valuation: Interconnect Business Guidance Raised Over 70%, 2028 Revenue Estimated at $16.5 Billion

Marvell has significantly raised its AI-driven revenue guidance after a strong showing at the Evercore TMT conference, buoyed by robust orders. The company now forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue of approximately $11.5 billion, with its Interconnect business growth projection lifted from ~50% to over 70%. Current growth is fueled by mature "beyond the rack" products like PAM DSPs, TIAs, and pluggable optical modules. However, the more strategically important "in the rack" segment, including co-packaged optics (CPO), is still preparing for 2027 mass production, targeting several hundred million dollars in annualized revenue by 2028. While Marvell's custom ASIC business aims to double next year to over $4 billion, and it benefits from partnerships like the one with NVIDIA, its high valuation already incorporates substantial future optimism. The company faces competition from Broadcom, which holds a scale advantage. The key uncertainty remains the successful large-scale deployment of CPO technology, including yield, cost curves, and customer adoption. Execution milestones in 2027 will be critical to validate the current growth narrative and sustain the elevated stock price.

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