The Altcoin Vector #37

Cardano Or Solana? Expert’s Top Pick After ADA, SOL Dip 10%

The broader crypto market pulled back as Bitcoin briefly fell below $67,000, causing Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) to each drop 10% weekly. Market expert Anders Bylund compared the two networks, ultimately favoring Solana. He frames Solana as a network built for speed and low transaction costs, though its history includes outages and technical issues, with stability improving recently. Cardano is described as taking a methodical, research-first approach focused on correctness and formal verification, which may slow development. In terms of practical usage, Bylund highlights Solana's significant lead, noting its decentralized exchanges handle over 400 times the volume of Cardano's. While acknowledging Cardano's dedicated community, he argues Solana's clear activity metrics make it the stronger pick for investors, who will be judged on real-world adoption rather than research elegance. The report adds a risk warning, stating both assets are volatile and would likely fall 50-70% if Bitcoin dropped 30%. At the time of writing, ADA traded at $0.21 (down 92% from its all-time high) and SOL at $76 (down 73% from its peak).

bitcoinist4 min fa

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion ahead of its IPO, far below the company's $1.75 trillion target. The research firm's DCF model values the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion and assigns only a $170 billion probability-weighted valuation to the AI segment (including xAI). Analyst Nicolas Owens calls the company "severely overvalued," citing a near-100x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue. Despite the bearish long-term view, Morningstar acknowledges short-term price support from low float and potential rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. The IPO is set for June 12, featuring an unusual tiered lock-up expiration that could create selling pressure over time.

marsbit8 min fa

“小美”、元宝互通，是在为微信智能体打样？

marsbit8 min fa

a16z: Why Prediction Markets Could Become the Infrastructure for 'Future Probabilities'

The article explores the concept and potential of prediction markets, arguing that they are evolving from niche trading tools into a foundational infrastructure for assessing the probability of future events. A prediction market creates tradable contracts on specific event outcomes, using market price to aggregate dispersed information and approximate a collective probability assessment. This mechanism offers advantages over polls or expert forecasts by providing a real-time, incentivized signal, as participants risk real money on their judgments. Key strengths include the ability to generate probabilistic estimates, built-in financial incentives that encourage genuine information gathering, and the capacity to address specialized questions (e.g., AI model performance, geopolitical events) not easily captured by traditional financial markets. The author emphasizes that a prediction market is essentially a market—a tool for both resource allocation and information aggregation. However, the article also outlines significant challenges for reliability and effectiveness. Success depends on participation from well-informed traders, thoughtful contract design, unambiguous outcome resolution, and robust safeguards against manipulation (e.g., by insiders or groups seeking to influence public perception). Without these, prices may be mere noise or tools for propaganda. The future of prediction markets, therefore, lies not simply in scaling up trading volume, but in building more credible and transparent infrastructure. This includes clear rules for participation, auditable settlement mechanisms, and designs that mitigate manipulation. If these challenges can be addressed, prediction markets could become a vital public utility for navigating uncertainty, providing a new class of probability signals about the future.

marsbit20 min fa

WSJ：Hyperliquid 正在成为华尔街的加密「便利店」

WSJ reports that the decentralized crypto platform Hyperliquid is becoming a favored "convenience store" for Wall Street traders, offering 24/7 access to trade perpetual futures on a wide range of assets, from Bitcoin and the S&P 500 to oil and pre-IPO companies like SpaceX. Founded three years ago by ex-HRT quant Jeff Yan, the platform emphasizes user self-custody of assets, a feature inspired by the FTX collapse. Its native token, HYPE, has surged over 100% in the past year. The platform's rise highlights the blending of crypto and traditional finance, attracting traders who use it to position ahead of major market events, such as a trader who profited from an oil bet during Middle East tensions. While U.S. residents are currently blocked, some use VPNs to access its user-friendly interface and broad asset selection. The platform also fosters a strong community culture, symbolized by its "Hypurr" cat mascot. However, perpetual futures are high-risk, high-leverage products; a recent market move wiped out $10 billion in positions on Hyperliquid. The platform plans to expand into prediction markets and options trading.

marsbit30 min fa