Bitcoin: The End of 'Faith-Based Trading'
Bitcoin is undergoing a painful transition from a purely speculative asset to an institutional one, marked by a 40% decline from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000 to approximately $73,000. This signals the end of the "Tinkerbell Effect," where prices were sustained by belief rather than fundamentals. Key drivers include hawkish signals from the Fed, sustained institutional outflows—with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $30 billion in outflows in January 2026 alone—and stalled regulatory progress, such as the delayed CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional assets, falling 11% in January while gold rose 13%, breaking its "digital gold" narrative. Correlation with equities has also dropped significantly. It is testing key technical levels, having broken below the average ETF entry price of $81,600 and approaching the psychologically critical $70,000 mark.
Despite a 370% gain since early 2023, the current pullback reflects a withdrawal of speculative excess rather than a fundamental breakdown. The market is shifting from faith-based trading to value anchoring, though Bitcoin’s high volatility remains inherent. Concerns about a potential "crypto winter" persist if declines deepen, especially given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Federal Reserve liquidity changes. The long-term outlook points to a complex maturation beyond pure speculation.
华尔街日报Ieri 10:36
