# Dot Plot Articoli collegati

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Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

This week (Dec 9-15) is dominated by two major themes: the Federal Reserve's final rate decision of the year and key developments in AI. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. The real focus, however, is on whether the move is accompanied by a "hawkish" tone. The central bank may signal a more cautious path for future cuts in 2025 to manage internal dissent and inflation concerns. The market's reaction is uncertain: it could either heed this warning (pressuring tech stocks and crypto) or ignore it, choosing instead to focus on anticipated aggressive easing under the incoming Trump administration—a scenario known as the "Hassett Trade." Concurrently, the AI narrative faces critical tests. Rumors suggest OpenAI may surprise-launch its GPT-5.2 model early, which could significantly boost sentiment across tech and crypto AI tokens. Furthermore, earnings reports from key AI infrastructure firms Broadcom and Oracle will serve as a crucial barometer for the strength of AI-related capital expenditure. Investors are warned of extreme volatility, particularly due to reduced liquidity from early market closures on Wednesday and a full U.S. market holiday on Thursday. The core events are the FOMC decision, updated economic projections (dot plot), and Chair Powell's press conference at 03:00 GMT on Thursday, followed by Broadcom's earnings. The advice is to reduce leverage ahead of this high-stakes volatility.

marsbit12/08 06:59

Macro Outlook This Week: The Decisive Battle Over the Fed's "Hawkish Rate Cut," A Crucial Test for the AI Narrative

marsbit12/08 06:59

Fed Rate Cut Tonight Almost Certain, This Meeting More Like a 'Political Pressure Test'!

This week's Federal Reserve policy meeting is set to be one of the most contentious in recent years. With key economic data missing due to a 43-day U.S. government shutdown, the meeting has evolved into a stress test of the Fed’s independence and decision-making process. Market expectations for a rate cut have surged from 30% to 97%, reflecting both data uncertainty and growing political influence. Internally, the Fed is deeply divided, with a 4-4 split among key officials between holding rates and cutting. The dot plot shows a rare "bimodal distribution," with 7 officials favoring no change and 8 supporting a 50-basis-point cut. Doves point to a weakening labor market—unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, a four-year high—while hawks emphasize persistent inflation, with core PCE at 2.7%, above the 2% target. Political pressure has intensified, notably through appointments like Stephen Milan, who voted for a deeper cut just one day into his role, aligning with former President Trump’s public demands. The upcoming Fed leadership transition adds further uncertainty, as officials may be positioning for future roles. Amid data gaps and political interference, the Fed faces a complex risk-management dilemma: balancing concerns over slowing employment against inflation risks and soaring government debt interest costs. Communication challenges are heightened by internal divisions, forcing the Fed to rely more on high-frequency and alternative data. This meeting may mark a shift toward a new monetary policy framework where data scarcity and political pressure become persistent challenges to the Fed’s independence.

marsbitIeri 02:29

Fed Rate Cut Tonight Almost Certain, This Meeting More Like a 'Political Pressure Test'!

marsbitIeri 02:29

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

In the context of the upcoming Fed rate decision, market consensus strongly expects a 25 basis point cut, with over 85% probability priced in. However, this high level of agreement means the actual rate cut may not significantly move markets, as it has already been anticipated. The real focus is on the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly the "dot plot" showing policymakers' interest rate projections for 2026. The Fed faces unusual uncertainty due to a recent government shutdown, which delayed key inflation data (CPI) for October and November. This lack of recent data may lead to more ambiguous signals from the Fed, increasing potential market volatility. Three scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline (most likely)**: The Fed cuts rates as expected and maintains previous guidance, resulting in minimal market reaction. 2. **Dovish**: The Fed signals more rate cuts in 2026 than previously indicated, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and equities. 3. **Hawkish**: The Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and limited future cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto and other risk assets. The article’s key argument is that high consensus often implies higher risk, as markets are driven by surprises relative to expectations. Investors are advised to focus on managing position risks amid elevated uncertainty rather than betting on specific outcomes.

比推Ieri 05:58

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

比推Ieri 05:58

Full Text of the Fed Decision: 25 Basis Point Rate Cut, $40 Billion Treasury Bill Purchases Within 30 Days

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% on December 10, 2025, marking the third consecutive rate cut. The decision was approved by a 9-3 vote. The policy statement removed the description of unemployment as "low," and the latest dot plot maintained the projection of an additional 25 basis point rate cut in 2026. Additionally, the Fed will purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over 30 days starting December 12 to maintain ample reserve levels. The policy stance reflects concerns over moderating economic activity, a rise in unemployment, and inflation that remains elevated. The committee emphasized its commitment to achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target, noting increased downside risks to employment. Voting against the decision were Stephen Miran, who preferred a 50 basis point cut, and Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, who favored no change. The Board also unanimously approved a reduction in the primary credit rate to 3.75%.

比推Ieri 19:28

Full Text of the Fed Decision: 25 Basis Point Rate Cut, $40 Billion Treasury Bill Purchases Within 30 Days

比推Ieri 19:28

A Less 'Hawkish' 'Hawkish Rate Cut' and Balance Sheet Expansion Buying Bonds That 'Is Not QE'

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time in 2024, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. The decision revealed the largest internal dissent in six years, with three officials opposing the move. The updated dot plot continues to project only one more rate cut in 2025, signaling a significant slowdown in the pace of easing. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the current policy stance allows the Fed to be patient and data-dependent, noting that no one is assuming the next move will be a hike. Simultaneously, the Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term Treasury bills to maintain ample reserves in the banking system, with an initial $40 billion in purchases planned for the next month. Powell stressed that these operations are for reserve management purposes and do not represent a change in monetary policy stance. The economic projections were slightly revised, with upgrades to GDP growth and minor downgrades to inflation expectations. The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising and job growth slowing.

深潮22 h fa

A Less 'Hawkish' 'Hawkish Rate Cut' and Balance Sheet Expansion Buying Bonds That 'Is Not QE'