Strategy Watch #4

insights.glassnodePubblicato 2026-05-22Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-05-22

Introduzione

Strategy Watch #4 provides a monthly institutional analysis of digital asset fund performance and allocation trends. The report covers six sections. Key findings for April show mixed capital flows: Bitcoin outflows eased significantly, nearing neutral, while stablecoin inflows surged to multi-month highs, indicating a defensive rotation into dollar instruments. Ethereum remained in persistent net outflow. ETF and DAT flows were positive for Bitcoin, while Ethereum flows staged a notable late-month reversal from deep outflows to meaningful inflows. However, DeFi TVL on Ethereum reversed its March stabilization, with accelerated outflows suggesting sustained allocator caution toward on-chain yield strategies. CME basis yields for both BTC and ETH deteriorated sharply, turning deeply negative as futures moved into backwardation, removing carry opportunities. Across strategies, all sub-strategies posted gains for the month, a rare alignment. Despite a more constructive market backdrop, manager cash levels climbed to multi-year highs, indicating selective and cautious positioning. The report also includes a DeFi/Yield strategy deep dive, on-chain vault performance analysis, and updates on institutional allocations, including rising pension fund activity.

The full report is freely available in PDF format.

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Welcome to Strategy Watch #4

Strategy Watch was built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

Our objective is straightforward — to make Strategy Watch a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community.

This publication is strengthened by direct input from market participants. Funds and allocators that contribute data and insights help shape a more complete and valuable view of the landscape. If you have insights, data, or allocation updates worth sharing, we welcome your contribution.

Present your latest initiatives and updates to a curated audience of institutional allocators.

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Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

The report is structured across six core sections, each focused on a distinct dimension of institutional activity in digital assets:

01 Institutional Flow Monitor | Defensive positioning persisted through April as BTC and ETH outflows eased further, stablecoin demand accelerated, and ETF inflows remained constructive.

02 Fund and SMA Performance | Every sub-strategy posted gains for the month, a level of cross-strategy alignment not seen in recent memory. Is this a rebound or repositioning?

03 Strategy Deep Dive: DeFi/Yield | Hear a CIO's perspective on where edge comes from as lending spreads compress and smart contract risk evolves

04 On-chain Vault Performance | Are ETH curators underperforming ETH staking yield?

05 Manager Monitor | Find out how more than 400+ managers are positioning for Q2, with cash levels climbing to multi-year highs despite a more constructive market backdrop.

06 Allocation Updates | Pension allocations rise alongside strategic acquisitions and new launches across yield, trading, and digital asset strategies.

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Institutional Flow Monitor

BTC capital flows nearly recovered to neutral through April while stablecoin inflows surged to multi-month highs, though ETH remained persistently in net outflow.

Bitcoin capital flows recovered materially through April, improving from -$6.9B at month-open to nearly neutral at -$0.7B by month-end, continuing the gradual deceleration of outflows observed in March. Stablecoins showed the strongest directional move, with inflows accelerating from +$1.8B in early April to +$5.4B by month-end, suggesting a meaningful rotation of capital into dollar-denominated on-chain instruments. Ethereum stood apart from both trends, remaining in persistent net outflow throughout the month and closing at -$1.6B, broadly unchanged from its March reading. The divergence between a stabilizing BTC, surging stablecoin demand, and a lagging ETH points to a selective rather than broad-based recovery in capital allocation.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

BTC ETF and DAT flows held positive through April while ETH staged a notable turnaround, flipping from deep outflow in early April to meaningful inflows by month-end.

Bitcoin ETF flows maintained positive territory throughout April, recovering from a mid-month dip to close at +26.3k BTC, while DAT flows strengthened progressively to +58.8k BTC by month-end. The more significant shift came from Ethereum, where ETF flows opened the month at -135k ETH before turning positive around April 18 and closing at +140.6k ETH. ETH DAT flows remained constructive throughout, finishing at +408.6k ETH. While BTC institutional demand showed consistency, the ETH turnaround is the more notable development, though it remains early and the magnitude of the late-month recovery warrants monitoring before drawing conclusions about a durable change in positioning.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

DeFi TVL flows on Ethereum reversed sharply in April, erasing the March stabilization as outflows accelerated to multi-month highs in the final week.

After nearly reaching neutral at month-end March, Ethereum DeFi TVL flows deteriorated steadily through April. The first half of the month was relatively contained, with flows oscillating near neutral before turning more negative around mid-month. The picture changed materially in the final ten days, with outflows accelerating to a peak of -$11.3B around April 25 before partially recovering to -$7.6B at month-end. Total ETH locked in DeFi fell from ~$54B at month-open to ~$44.9B by close. The reversal of March's stabilization trend suggests the earlier recovery was fragile, and the renewed pace of withdrawal points to sustained allocator caution toward on-chain yield strategies heading into May.

CME Basis Yield

CME basis yield deteriorated sharply through April for both BTC and ETH, with carry returns turning deeply negative by month-end as futures markets shifted into persistent backwardation.

After closing March at -$3.9M and +$0.9M respectively, BTC and ETH CME basis yields both briefly recovered in early-to-mid April, with BTC reaching +$3.3M and ETH +$1.7M around April 9-12. The recovery proved short-lived. Both assets deteriorated sharply through the second half of the month, with BTC closing April at -$21.2M and ETH at -$6.0M. The depth and pace of this reversal suggests futures markets moved into meaningful backwardation, removing the economic basis for cash-and-carry strategies entirely. For institutions running market-neutral books, the carry environment in April offered no compensation, reinforcing the broader picture of reduced leverage deployment and subdued institutional risk appetite.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the primary objective of the Strategy Watch publication?

AThe primary objective of Strategy Watch is to become a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community by providing high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

QAccording to the Institutional Flow Monitor, what was the trend for Bitcoin (BTC) and stablecoin capital flows in April?

AIn April, Bitcoin (BTC) capital flows nearly recovered to neutral, showing a significant improvement from a -$6.9B net outflow at the beginning of the month to nearly -$0.7B by month-end. In contrast, stablecoin inflows surged to multi-month highs, accelerating from +$1.8B to +$5.4B by month-end.

QHow did Ethereum (ETH) ETF flows change during the month of April?

AEthereum (ETH) ETF flows staged a notable turnaround in April. They opened the month at a deep outflow of -135k ETH, then turned positive around April 18th, and closed the month at a meaningful inflow of +140.6k ETH.

QWhat happened to DeFi TVL (Total Value Locked) on Ethereum in April?

ADeFi TVL flows on Ethereum reversed sharply in April. After nearly stabilizing in March, outflows accelerated, reaching a peak of -$11.3B around April 25th and closing the month at -$7.6B. Total ETH locked in DeFi fell from approximately $54B to $44.9B.

QWhat was the trend for CME basis yield for both BTC and ETH through April?

ACME basis yield for both BTC and ETH deteriorated sharply through April. After briefly recovering in early-to-mid April, both turned deeply negative by month-end, with BTC closing at -$21.2M and ETH at -$6.0M, indicating futures markets moved into persistent backwardation.

Letture associate

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is 'Losing Blood,' How Can Practitioners Survive Better?

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is "Bleeding Out" – How Can Practitioners Survive Better? In a candid reflection, the founder of IOSG Ventures voices deep concerns about the current state of Web3, describing an ecosystem experiencing severe "blood loss." Despite the recent MuShanghai event showcasing a successful pivot towards a more diverse, global community, a somber reality persists: many crypto-native attendees were there exploring exits or new labels in biotech, AI, and robotics. The core issue is identified as a breakdown in the ecosystem's positive feedback loop. Alarmingly, underestimated "low-probability bad events" are occurring simultaneously: a significant brain drain of Chinese developers to AI, a lack of breakout applications despite massive funding, and a widening credibility gap for practitioners globally, often stigmatized as scam artists. This has created a dire接班人 (successor) problem, with the next generation seeing little professional prestige or financial upside in crypto compared to fields like AI. A significant portion of the critique focuses on Ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. While not pessimistic about Ethereum's technology, the founder worries that critical development windows were missed by focusing on niche technical narratives like ZK and L2 instead of mass-market applications. A more urgent concern is that Vitalik may be isolated in an "information bubble," shielded from the grassroots community's hardships by layers of intermediaries, preventing crucial feedback from reaching him. The call is for Vitalik to return to a founder's mindset, re-engage directly with the community, and rally efforts for the next decade. The divergence between U.S. and Chinese OG (Original Gangster) ecosystems is stark. While many U.S. builders reinvest their wealth into the ecosystem, the Chinese scene suffers from a severe lack of "造血能力" (blood-making ability), with most market-driven funds struggling and many early success stories cashing out entirely. This threatens the entire Asian Web3 ecosystem's survival. For individual practitioners, survival advice is pragmatic: find your core "why," maintain life balance beyond token prices, continuously learn new skills (like AI), form small, trusted alliances for mutual support, and practice self-compassion. The industry's greatest need is not money or tech, but lighthouses—individuals at all levels who offer mentorship, grants, referrals, and honest reflection to guide others. The piece concludes with a direct appeal: OGs must pay forward the opportunities the industry gave them; founders must not struggle alone; and builders must continue their work, ensuring it remains a viable profession. The survival of Web3's "cathedral" depends not on any single leader but on the collective responsibility of everyone who remains.

marsbit22 min fa

IOSG Founder: Web3 Is 'Losing Blood,' How Can Practitioners Survive Better?

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Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

In the week of May 15-19, 2026, U.S. long-term Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.2%, a level unseen since 2007, and the 10-year yield climbing to 4.687%. Equity markets declined in response. Four primary factors are driving the rise in yields. First, stubborn inflation persists, with April wholesale prices rising 6% year-over-year, fueling expectations of potential future Fed rate hikes instead of cuts. Second, newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a complex inflation battle, with markets closely awaiting his first FOMC meeting. Third, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, marked by large deficits and rising debt servicing costs, is eroding the traditional "safe-haven" premium for Treasuries. Fourth, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax cuts are projected to add trillions to the national debt, contributing to Moody's recent credit rating downgrade. Rising yields pressure stocks through several channels: a higher discount rate reduces the present value of future earnings (especially for growth stocks); rising risk-free rates compress equity risk premiums, making bonds relatively more attractive; higher borrowing costs impact consumers and corporations; and a stronger dollar affects multinational earnings. For investors, the environment favors value and financial stocks over long-duration growth stocks. Bond investors find attractive yields in short to intermediate maturities, while income investors see the best fixed-income opportunities in over a decade. Key developments to watch include Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting, upcoming inflation data, Treasury auction demand, and whether the 30-year yield approaches 6%, a level that could trigger a more sustained equity valuation reset. The bond market's message is clear: the era of cheap government borrowing is over, posing a central challenge for markets in late 2026.

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Deficits, Inflation, and the New Fed: The Deep Logic Behind US Bond Yields Breaking 5% and the Market Reset

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Is MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin Not a Bearish Signal? Deconstructing the 5 Financial Logics Behind Corporate Bitcoin Divestment

The article "Is Strategy Selling Bitcoin Not a Bearish Signal? Decoding 5 Financial Logics Behind Corporate Bitcoin Divestment" analyzes why companies might sell their bitcoin holdings, arguing it's not necessarily negative. It begins by noting the market's surprise at Strategy's potential sale, contrasting its previous "never sell" stance. The core argument is that corporate decisions prioritize shareholder value, and selling bitcoin can be a rational strategic choice. The article outlines five key financial reasons for such sales: 1. **Increase Bitcoin Holdings Per Share:** Companies can use proceeds from bitcoin sales to repurchase shares when the stock price is undervalued relative to its bitcoin assets. This reduces the outstanding share count, potentially increasing the bitcoin amount backing each remaining share. 2. **Optimize Capital Structure & Reduce Financing Costs:** Building cash reserves through bitcoin sales can improve credit ratings (as favored by agencies like S&P), leading to lower future borrowing costs. Repaying debt with sale proceeds also reduces financial leverage. 3. **Legitimate Tax Planning:** In the absence of wash-sale rules for bitcoin in the US, companies can sell to realize capital losses, then repurchase, lowering the tax basis of their holdings and creating tax offsets. 4. **Counter Negative Market Narratives:** A controlled, non-disruptive sale could demonstrate market resilience and disprove fears that corporate selling would crash the market, thereby normalizing bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset. 5. **Repurchase Preferred Stock at a Discount:** If a company's preferred stock trades significantly below its face value, using bitcoin sale proceeds to repurchase it can retire expensive liabilities at a profit, saving on future dividend payments. The conclusion emphasizes that bitcoin's monetary properties offer flexibility. Strategic sales can protect corporate and shareholder interests, making asset utilization more important than rigid "hold" mandates.

marsbit53 min fa

Is MicroStrategy Selling Bitcoin Not a Bearish Signal? Deconstructing the 5 Financial Logics Behind Corporate Bitcoin Divestment

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Why Did Zhipu Surge Nearly 30% in a Single Day?

"Global AI Model Unicorn" Zhipu's stock surged nearly 30% in a single day, reaching a new market cap high. The catalyst was the launch of its GLM-5.1-highspeed API, boasting a generation speed of **400 tokens per second**, setting a new global benchmark. This speed, roughly 3-5 times faster than industry leaders like OpenAI's GPT-4o and Anthropic's Claude, is achieved **without compromising the full-scale model's capabilities**. In the era of AI Agents requiring dozens of self-calls, such latency reduction is critical, transforming speed from a system metric into a determinant of intelligence limits. The breakthrough stems from a three-layer technical overhaul: 1. **TileRT Inference Engine**: Compiles the entire model into a continuous, always-on computation pipeline using "Warp Specialization," minimizing GPU idle time by having different processor groups handle data loading, computation, and communication in parallel. 2. **Heterogeneous Parallelism for MLA**: To efficiently run the GLM-5.1 model using the MLA attention mechanism, TileRT employs a heterogeneous strategy. One GPU handles sparse indexing/routing, while the others perform dense computation, optimizing for MLA's unique workflow. 3. **ZCube Network Architecture**: Replaces the standard Spine-Leaf (ROFT) network topology with a flat, dual-group interconnect. This design creates a single optimal path between any two GPUs, eliminating network congestion at scale and reducing latency. The business impact is significant: a 15% increase in cluster throughput (free extra capacity), a 40.6% reduction in tail latency (improved stability), and a one-third cut in networking hardware costs. Long-term, this innovation challenges the dominance of NVIDIA's integrated hardware-software stack (GPU+NVLink+InfiniBand), potentially benefiting manufacturers of high-density Leaf switches and optical modules while lowering the software barrier for domestic AI chips like Huawei's Ascend. The innovation proves that more can be achieved with the same compute, reshaping the infrastructure beyond just GPUs.

marsbit2 h fa

Why Did Zhipu Surge Nearly 30% in a Single Day?

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The Powell Era Concludes: Warsh Takes Over the Fed, What It Means for Global Finance and the Crypto Market?

The podcast discusses the implications of Jerome Powell's departure and Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair for global markets and crypto. It highlights a significant divergence between bond markets, which price in global tightening and persistent inflation, and equity markets, driven by AI hype—a disparity reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. The analysis introduces the "Bliss Trade" concept, a structural expectation of government stimulus during crises, which underpins risk asset valuations and currency debasement trades. Inflation is seen as sticky, driven by deglobalization and further complicated by geopolitical tensions, unlikely to fall quickly even if immediate crises subside. Powell's tenure is critiqued for misjudging inflation and overseeing the de-banking of crypto firms, despite defending Fed independence. Regarding crypto, Bitcoin is viewed as a macro asset and a hedge against currency debasement, but its current muted performance stems from competition with higher-beta assets like AI stocks. The potential Clarity Act is seen as more beneficial for Ethereum than Bitcoin, with concerns about tokenization innovation leading to pure speculation. A key warning signal is the widening gap between the market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indices, suggesting underlying market fragility.

marsbit2 h fa

The Powell Era Concludes: Warsh Takes Over the Fed, What It Means for Global Finance and the Crypto Market?

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