Strategy Watch #3

insights.glassnodePubblicato 2026-04-23Pubblicato ultima volta 2026-04-23

Introduzione

Strategy Watch #3 provides institutional analysis of digital asset fund performance and allocation trends. Key findings show gradual stabilization in capital flows, with Bitcoin and ETH outflows improving from February lows but remaining negative. BTC ETF and DAT flows turned positive mid-March before moderating, while Ethereum flows followed more cautiously. DeFi TVL on Ethereum recovered significantly, nearing neutral by month-end. However, BTC CME basis yield turned negative, eliminating carry trade opportunities. The report also covers performance dispersion among strategies, a deep dive into quant trend following, on-chain vault yields, manager sentiment, and new institutional entries, including a $6B pension fund increasing crypto exposure.

The full report is freely available in PDF format.

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Welcome to Strategy Watch #3

Strategy Watch was built to address a clear demand for high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends in digital assets.

Our objective is straightforward — to make Strategy Watch a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community.

Funds and allocators that contribute data and insights help shape a more complete and valuable view of the landscape. If you have insights, data, or allocation updates worth sharing, we welcome your contribution.

Present your latest initiatives and updates to a curated audience of institutional allocators.

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Inside the Latest Strategy Watch

The report is structured across six core sections, each focused on a distinct dimension of institutional activity in digital assets:

01 Institutional Flow Monitor | Early stabilization as BTC/ETH outflows improve and ETF demand recovers, but conviction in spot markets remains under pressure.

02 Fund and SMA Performance | Market-neutral strategies delivered consistent gains; directional performance remains highly dispersed.

03 Strategy Deep Dive: Quant Trend Following | What’s driving quant trend performance in a difficult environment for directional strategies? Hear directly from a fund manager.

04 On-chain Vault Performance | Are ETH curators underperforming ETH staking yield?

05 Manager Monitor | Find out how more than 300 managers are expecting the crypto market to perform over the next three months.

06 Allocation Updates | A $6B pension fund increases crypto exposure as new funds and institutional strategies continue to launch.

The Premier Digital Assets Allocator Platform. Learn more

Institutional Flow Monitor

BTC and ETH capital flows remained negative through March but continued to recover from February lows, while stablecoin inflows moderated alongside the broader stabilization.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to register net outflows through March, with capital flows closing the month at -$7.0B and -$1.6B respectively, a notable improvement from the -$9.6B and -$3.2B readings seen in mid-February. Stablecoin inflows also moderated to +$2.6B by month-end, easing from the +$6.2B peak earlier in March. The overall picture is one of gradual stabilization rather than recovery, with the acute phase of institutional de-risking losing momentum but conviction in spot assets remaining under pressure.

ETF & DAT Net Flows

BTC ETF and DAT flows swung decisively positive through March, with ETH channels following at a more measured pace before both eased into month-end.

Bitcoin ETF and DAT flows finally turned positive through March, reaching intra-month highs of +30.6k BTC and +46.8k BTC respectively mid-month before settling back to +17.6k BTC and +30.9k BTC by month-end. Ethereum flows mirrored the directional shift with less intensity, as ETF flows reached +46.6k ETH and DAT flows peaked at +295.9k ETH before easing to +261.9k ETH at close. The mid-month surge followed by minor pullback, suggests demand remains sensitive to wider market conditions, rather than a true sustained structural shift in institutional positioning.

DeFi TVL & Stablecoin Cap

DeFi TVL flows on Ethereum staged a significant recovery through March, reversing from peak February outflows to near-neutral territory by month-end.

After registering peak monthly outflows of $17.8B at end of February, Ethereum DeFi TVL flows recovered sharply through March, turning positive in mid-month and closing the period near neutral at -$0.75B. The pace of recovery was notable, with flows moving from double-digit outflows in early March to briefly positive readings around $4.9B by mid-month before settling back. While the trend shift is meaningful, a single month of stabilization is insufficient to declare a reversal of the broader contraction that has persisted since August 2025, and sustained inflows would be required to confirm a genuine return of allocator conviction in on-chain yield strategies.

CME Basis Yield

BTC CME basis yield turned negative through March, erasing the carry trade entirely, while ETH basis yield remained subdued but showed tentative signs of recovery by month-end.

Here we measure return available to institutions running cash-and-carry trades. After compressing through February to $17.3M/month, BTC basis yield crossed into negative territory mid-March and closed the month at -$3.9M, reflecting a full inversion of the carry premium. This signals futures are trading at a discount to spot, removing the economic rationale for market-neutral strategies entirely. ETH basis yield, already negative at end of February, oscillated in a narrow range before recovering modestly to +0.9M by month-end. Taken together, the carry environment for both assets remains structurally challenged, with meaningful recovery contingent on a sustained rebuilding of futures premium above spot.

Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data.

Domande pertinenti

QWhat is the main objective of the Strategy Watch publication?

AThe objective is to make Strategy Watch a must-read monthly publication for the digital asset investment community by providing high-signal, impartial analysis of fund-level performance and allocation trends.

QWhat was the trend in Bitcoin and Ethereum capital flows through March as reported?

ABitcoin and Ethereum continued to register net outflows through March, closing at -$7.0B and -$1.6B respectively, which was an improvement from the -$9.6B and -$3.2B readings seen in mid-February.

QHow did the performance of market-neutral strategies compare to directional strategies?

AMarket-neutral strategies delivered consistent gains, while directional performance remained highly dispersed.

QWhat happened to the BTC CME basis yield in March?

AThe BTC CME basis yield turned negative through March, erasing the carry trade entirely and closing the month at -$3.9M, indicating futures were trading at a discount to spot.

QWhich section of the report discusses the performance of on-chain ETH vaults compared to staking yield?

ASection 04, titled 'On-chain Vault Performance', addresses whether ETH curators are underperforming ETH staking yield.

Letture associate

The Verdict in Choi Tae-won's Divorce Case: Revealing the Inheritance Undercurrent Behind SK Hynix's Trillion-Won Empire

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won's high-profile divorce case, involving a record 1.38 trillion won settlement, has drawn attention to the succession plans for Korea's second-largest conglomerate, especially its crown jewel, SK hynix. Unlike traditional chaebol scripts centered on the eldest son, Chey's three children from his marriage to former President Roh Tae-woo's daughter, Roh Soh-yeong, are carving distinct, non-traditional paths. Eldest daughter Chey Yun-jung (b. 1989) is seen as the most evident successor. With a scientific and consulting background, she holds executive roles at SK bioscience and SK Inc.'s growth support department, focusing on future strategy and biopharma. Her marriage is to an AI infrastructure entrepreneur, not a traditional business alliance. Second daughter Chey Min-jung (b. 1991) took a unique route, voluntarily serving as a South Korean naval officer, including an anti-piracy deployment. She later worked on policy and strategy for SK hynix in Washington D.C. before co-founding an AI-driven healthcare startup. She married a former U.S. Marine Corps officer, connecting her to U.S. defense and policy circles—networks crucial for a global semiconductor giant. The only son, Chey In-geun (b. 1995), who studied physics like his father, worked briefly at SK E&S before joining McKinsey. Despite fitting the traditional "heir" profile as the eldest son, he remains silent and holds no public position or shares in SK, suggesting the old succession playbook is obsolete. As SK hynix's valuation soars, becoming a geopolitical asset in the AI era, the heirs' legitimacy is no longer automatic. They must prove themselves in fields like AI biotech, global policy, and strategic consulting. Their marriages also reflect new elite networks in tech and defense, not old political alliances. Their inheritance is the complex challenge of navigating a globalized, tech-driven world, not just a corporate throne.

marsbitIeri 09:06

The Verdict in Choi Tae-won's Divorce Case: Revealing the Inheritance Undercurrent Behind SK Hynix's Trillion-Won Empire

marsbitIeri 09:06

Banks oppose stablecoin yield deal – Can CLARITY Act find 60 votes?

The Bank Policy Institute (BPI) has opposed the latest draft of the CLARITY Act, criticizing its provisions on stablecoin yield and illicit finance. The banking industry sought a total ban on stablecoin yield, but the bill's compromise only prohibits passive yield on idle balances. This opposition has influenced lawmakers, reducing tentative Republican Senate support to potentially 49 votes. With the 60-vote threshold needed, securing sufficient Democratic support appears difficult as some pro-crypto Democrats also oppose the bill due to ethics and illicit finance concerns. Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed doubt the bill can pass before the August recess. Market odds for the bill's passage in 2026 have fallen, leaving its future uncertain.

ambcryptoIeri 09:02

Banks oppose stablecoin yield deal – Can CLARITY Act find 60 votes?

ambcryptoIeri 09:02

2 Months, Valuation Soars from $8.8B to $68B! The Largest AI Model Hub OpenRouter May Be Acquired

Stripe is reportedly in talks to acquire AI model marketplace OpenRouter for a price nearing $10 billion, a dramatic increase from its $1.3 billion valuation just two months prior. The deal, which could be announced within a month, would see the payment giant absorb a key "router" or aggregation layer in the AI infrastructure stack. OpenRouter provides developers with a single API to access over 400 large language models (LLMs), automatically routing queries to the most suitable model based on cost, capability, and speed. This allows AI applications to optimize expenses while maintaining user experience. Founded in 2023 by ex-OpenSea co-founder Alex Atallah and Louis Vichy, OpenRouter has grown rapidly, reaching $50 million in annualized revenue by April and serving over one million developers. For Stripe, the acquisition of OpenRouter follows its late-2025 purchase of usage-based billing platform Metronome. The combined strategy aims to create an integrated suite for the AI economy: OpenRouter would handle model selection and routing, Metronome would manage granular usage-based billing, and Stripe's core platform would process payments. This positions Stripe to control a critical part of the AI application value chain, influencing which models get used while simplifying cost management for enterprise customers.

链捕手Ieri 08:59

2 Months, Valuation Soars from $8.8B to $68B! The Largest AI Model Hub OpenRouter May Be Acquired

链捕手Ieri 08:59

From OpenSea to OpenRouter: Is Alex Atallah Repeating His 'Exit at the Peak' Playbook?

From OpenSea to OpenRouter: Is Alex Atallah Repeating His "Exit at the Peak" Playbook? According to the Wall Street Journal, payments giant Stripe is in talks to acquire the AI model aggregation platform OpenRouter in a potential deal valuing the company near $100 billion. This would mark founder Alex Atallah's second creation of a company reaching a $100 billion valuation, following his co-founding of NFT marketplace OpenSea. OpenRouter, founded just over three years ago, has grown rapidly by acting as a unified gateway for developers to access over 400 AI models. It currently has about 10 million users and processes over 200 trillion tokens monthly. While the platform's annualized revenue is around $50 million, its valuation has skyrocketed from $1.3 billion in March 2026. The potential acquisition by Stripe, a company OpenRouter's founder once likened it to, represents a major expansion into AI infrastructure for the payments leader. This move echoes Atallah's previous timing with OpenSea, where he departed before the NFT market's significant downturn. For OpenRouter, selling now may be strategic. Despite its scale, its business model—charging a 5-5.5% fee on AI inference calls—faces pressure from competition, open-source models, and potential price wars among model providers, limiting its profitability narrative for an IPO. A key asset for potential acquirers like Stripe is OpenRouter's vast repository of real-world AI usage data, which offers unique insights into model performance and developer preferences that are difficult to replicate. Whether this potential deal signifies a new valuation benchmark for AI infrastructure or another market peak signal remains to be seen.

链捕手Ieri 08:42

Pons V2 brings RWA trading pairs as Robinhood Chain broadens its ambitions

Pons, a key launchpad on Robinhood Chain, has launched its V2 upgrade. The update aims to boost liquidity, remove trading restrictions for most users via an ETH-denominated bonding curve, and introduces support for custom tokenized real-world asset (RWA) trading pairs. This aligns with Robinhood Chain's broader RWA focus. The upgrade also allows creators to collect fees in ETH by default. The network itself is growing rapidly, surpassing $300 million in Total Value Locked. Its cumulative DEX volume has exceeded $9 billion, with about 80% coming from speculative memecoin trading. However, data shows 63% of traders are at a loss, with profits concentrated in a small number of wallets. The introduction of RWAs could help drive more organic adoption for the chain, which is positioning itself as a major player for speculative trading, challenging networks like Base and Solana.

ambcryptoIeri 08:26

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