Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)
Over the past two weeks, Strategy has once again significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings: adding over 10,000 BTC in a single week, valued at more than $900 million.
As a well-known long-term holder in the market, against the backdrop of Bitcoin's continued price decline and its own mNAV falling below 1, Strategy has not sold off as the market feared, but instead provided a completely opposite answer—firmly buying. To date, Strategy holds approximately 671,000 BTC in total, with a total value exceeding $50 billion, continuously solidifying its position as one of the world's largest Bitcoin-holding institutions.
This move has also sparked deeper market reflection: With such large-scale continuous buying, how much Bitcoin is truly available for trading on the market?
The theoretical maximum supply of Bitcoin is 21 million, but the actual circulating supply is far less. Approximately 19.96 million have been mined so far, accounting for 95% of the total, with only about 1.04 million yet to be produced. The current block reward is 3.125 BTC, with about 450 new coins added daily, and it will halve again in 2028. At this pace, the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.
However, what truly determines market supply is not the unmined new coins, but the liquid portion of the existing supply.
According to statistics, over 30% of Bitcoin has not moved for a long time and is considered "dormant holdings"; another approximately 20% is suspected to be permanently lost. Additionally, institutional and public holdings, including listed companies, ETFs, and national funds, continue to rise, with most of these BTC exiting high-frequency circulation. Furthermore, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to multi-year lows, meaning the "floating supply" available for immediate sale is rapidly contracting. Against the backdrop of whales quietly accumulating and long-term holders holding firm, market liquidity is facing structural tightening.
Regarding the issue of Bitcoin's true circulating supply, crypto analyst Murphy has conducted a systematic review. Odaily Planet Daily has further integrated data and perspectives on this basis, attempting to present the full picture of data behind this scarcity narrative—as buying power persists and available supply shrinks, the market structure may be quietly shifting.
Long-Term Holders' "Institutionalized Hoarding" is Taking Over Circulating Supply
Long-term holders have now become the most important structural force in the Bitcoin market. According to Glassnode statistics, this group collectively holds approximately 14.35 million BTC, accounting for over 70% of the circulating supply.
A further breakdown. There are currently 153 enterprises holding BTC with "non-zero balances," the core of which are 29 listed companies, collectively holding 1.082 million Bitcoin (including Other holding 54,331). Among these 29 listed companies, Strategy alone holds 671,000 BTC, accounting for a high 62%.
If combined with URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) data, Strategy's intensive buying range coincides precisely with the most densely stacked area in BTC's chip structure, roughly concentrated between $80,000 and $118,000. This means that Strategy indeed played a significant role in the large amount of chip exchange in the high-price range. This is also why MSTR and ETFs are considered the driving force behind this bull cycle.
It is important to note that on October 6, there were only 67 enterprises holding "BTC non-zero balances." However, as BTC experienced a deep correction, this number suddenly surged, and there are now 153. Does this mean that new enterprise-level players are quietly entering the market during the price decline?
In addition to BTC reserves held by实体企业 (实体企业 - physical/real enterprises), spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold approximately 1.311 million BTC in total. The top three are: BlackRock with about 777,000, Fidelity with about 202,000, and Grayscale with about 167,000.
Furthermore, governments worldwide hold approximately 615,000 BTC in total. The U.S. government leads with 325,000; ranking second is the Chinese government, holding about 190,000 BTC. It should be noted that the Chinese government has never officially disclosed related holdings. This data primarily comes from Glassnode, and its statistical caliber still has uncertainties compared to the actual situation.
Additionally, the number of Bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years is approximately 3.409 million. These assets consist of cold wallets from early exchanges and truly "faith-based OGs"; but it is also important not to overlook that a significant portion of these have likely exited the circulation system de facto due to reasons such as lost private keys or the holder's death. This includes the approximately 1 million BTC widely believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.
How Much of the Mined BTC Is Actually "Unbuyable"?
Murphy subsequently provided a more detailed梳理 (sorting out) of this data. Unlike traditional bank accounts which have a "forgot password recovery" function, Bitcoin relies entirely on private keys to prove ownership. Once a private key is lost or becomes inaccessible, the corresponding Bitcoin can never be moved or spent again. Although they are still recorded on the blockchain, economically, they are equivalent to being permanently destroyed.
If we细分 (break down) the circulating supply by date range, where each date range refers to the creation date of the UTXO. Then we can see that the cumulative peak for BTC "born" from 2010-2014 occurred in December 2014, after which it declined rapidly (as they were spent); it has shown almost no significant change since around January 2019 to the present.
These ancient BTC that remain today, apart from those held by absolutely faithful holders, should mostly be lost. According to Murphy's estimate, this proportion is at least 50% or more, meaning at least 1.06 million or more.
There is another set of "supreme king" coins, with UTXO creation dates in 2009. They have hardly moved since after December 2011, and to this day, this address group holds 1.08 million BTC.
This means that at least approximately 2.14 million BTC may be permanently immovable in practice.
The Truly Liquid Supply
Looking at the most direct indicator—exchange balances—the Bitcoin held in exchange wallets is currently about 2.49 million, and this trend is continuously declining, having hit a new low since 2023.
In other words, while demand continues to become "institutionalized," supply is continuously contracting. The pool of Bitcoin available for trading is getting smaller and smaller.
