The Bitcoin bear market caught some parts of the crypto crowd by surprise, as several investors expected prices to recover at different stages of the correction. However, some sections of the market saw this corrective phase, using on-chain data as the basis of their prognosis.
One such group is the on-chain data analysts who called the emergence of the bear market based on the decline in apparent demand. Using this same model, a prominent market researcher has come forward with a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s price recovery.
Bitcoin ETFs Kick Off 2026 With $1.8 Billion Outflows
In a recent post on the social media platform X, pseudonymous analyst Darkfost shared that spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) may play a huge role in the crypto market turnaround. According to market data, demand for crypto via exchange-traded funds has been weak so far in 2026.
This cautious stance from investors and “contraction in liquidity” has had a significant effect on the market, as prices keep tumbling to new lows every other week. Darkfost highlighted that early 2026 has looked more like a period of risk reduction on the spot Bitcoin ETF side, which has been largely driven by substantial capital inflows and strong speculative momentum.
Darkfost wrote in the X post:
Market participants appear to be reassessing their risk exposure in a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
Unsurprisingly, recent on-chain data support the increasing apathy of investors towards the Bitcoin ETF market. According to data highlighted by Darkfost, the year 2026 is starting with around $1.8 billion in net outflows, which is in stark contrast to the strongly positive levels witnessed in 2024 and at the start of 2025.
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X
Sustained capital inflows and a significant expansion in market liquidity characterized these periods. However, it is worth mentioning that 2025 ended on a more negative note, with ETF inflows declining from $27 billion to around $20 billion by year’s end.
Hence, this trend shows that the current weakness in demand seems more like a gradual decline than a sudden drop. In any case, this demand weakness has left the Bitcoin market unprotected and more vulnerable to selling pressure and short-term volatility.
Darkfost concluded that a sustained run of Bitcoin ETF inflows could be a “key catalyst” to restoring a stronger market structure and investor confidence. The signs, however, have not been encouraging so far, as the US-based BTC exchange-traded funds bled roughly $360 million in net outflows over the past week.
Bitcoin Price At A Glance
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $70,600, reflecting an almost 2% jump in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC crosses $70,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
