Author: Ma He, Foresight News
Original Title: Behind the 'Side Hustles' of Prediction Market Giants: Opening Offline Grocery Stores Out of Anxiety?
Who would have thought that the competition between the two online prediction market giants, Kalshi and Polymarket, has already extended from purely online to offline.
At 12:00 PM on February 4th, Kalshi gave away free groceries to residents at the West Side Market on 84 Third Avenue in New York City, with a limit of up to $50 per person.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated, "We believe in free markets," making it clear that this move aims to promote the concept of prediction markets through tangible benefits to the public.
The highlight of the event lies in its clever marketing strategy. First, it directly ties into current economic hot topics—inflation and rising living costs have become pain points for the American public. By offering free groceries, Kalshi not only provides immediate value but also positions itself as an "event contract exchange," allowing users to trade on events such as politics, economics, and sports.
For example, users can predict fluctuations in grocery prices or changes in economic indicators on the platform, thereby transforming the offline experience into online participation. Second, the event’s location in a high-density, high-consumption city like New York maximizes exposure. Official videos show crowds rushing in at the opening moment, likened to "Christmas revisited."
The event had a low barrier to entry: no app download was required to participate; one only needed to shop in-store, and Kalshi would cover the bill. This not only lowered the entry barrier for users but also reinforced the platform’s approachable image.
Unlike Kalshi’s short-term promotion, Polymarket’s offline activity is more long-term and ambitious.
On February 4th, Polymarket announced it would open a "free grocery store" in New York, located at 7 Madison Avenue, scheduled to officially open on February 12th. The store is supported by the Food Bank for New York City, with the project breaking ground in late 2025 and a lease agreement already signed. Additionally, Polymarket donated $1 million to address security concerns.
Polymarket’s announcement coincidentally came on the same day as Kalshi’s event, even with overlapping opening times, which is seen as a direct response.
The highlight of Polymarket’s activity lies in its innovation and emphasis on social responsibility. First, this is not a one-time promotion but a permanent store where users can obtain groceries for free, addressing food security issues in New York. Second, this aligns closely with the platform’s core philosophy of revealing truth and allocating resources through prediction markets.
Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan stated that this move is an expansion of the platform from online to offline, aiming to "make prediction markets accessible."
Polymarket incorporates its signature blue logo into the store, with a simple and stylish interior design. Compared to Kalshi’s $50 cap, Polymarket’s free model is more attractive and is expected to reach more low-income groups.
Intensified Rivalry Between the Two Platforms
The offline activities of Kalshi and Polymarket are a microcosm of the fierce competition in the prediction market.
Kalshi uses U.S. compliance as its moat, rapidly expanding its territory. It has not only integrated with various Web3 wallets like Phantom but also partnered with Coinbase to extend its services to all 50 U.S. states. Coinbase users can trade prediction market contracts with as little as $1. In January of this year, Kalshi officially announced that its annualized trading volume exceeded $100 billion.
Polymarket has not only strengthened collaborations with crypto-native players like Jupiter and Phantom but has also expanded its traffic channels by sponsoring events such as the Hollywood Golden Globe Awards.
However, the latest data shows that its market share is still being eroded by Kalshi.
To make matters worse, Polymarket faces troubling regulatory issues.
In January of this year, Ukraine banned Polymarket, as the country’s current legal framework does not recognize prediction markets. Portuguese regulators have also ordered Polymarket to cease operations in the country.
In February, a Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order, prohibiting Polymarket from offering event contract services to Nevada residents before a preliminary hearing on February 11th.
Additionally, many regions in Asia view Polymarket as a gambling platform and have blocked its IP address.
Another competitor backed by Binance is also eyeing the market. Opinion completed a tens of millions of dollars funding round in December 2025. Driven by airdrop expectations, the platform’s trading volume exceeded $5 billion in just one month, with daily fee revenue consistently surpassing $100,000.
Meanwhile, various exchanges, DEXs, and traditional financial institutions are also entering the prediction market.
Bloomberg reported that Crypto.com announced on Tuesday that it would launch a dedicated prediction market platform, OG, just days before the Super Bowl. Its co-founder and CEO, Kris Marszalek, stated that its event contract business has grown 40 times week-over-week in the past six months, making the launch of an independent product necessary. Another crypto trading platform, Kraken, plans to launch prediction market services in 2026, as revealed by its Global Consumer Business Head, Mark Greenberg, on the Crypto World show.
Robinhood had already launched a prediction market before Trump’s election and plans to introduce more new event contracts. In October 2025, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated in an interview with Bloomberg that its prediction market segment is one of the fastest-growing sectors and one of its nine business lines with annual revenue exceeding $100 million.
Derivatives DEX leader Hyperliquid is also testing a native prediction market on its testnet. Hyperliquid announced that HyperCore will support Outcome Trading (HIP-4). Outcome Trading involves fully collateralized contracts settled within a fixed range. This is a universal foundational trading element applicable to scenarios such as prediction markets and bounded option-like instruments.
It features non-linear, time-bound contracts, offering a form of derivatives trading without leverage or liquidation, and can be combined with portfolio margin and HyperEVM. Currently, this feature is still under development and is only being tested on the testnet. Once technical development is complete, Hyperliquid will deploy standardized markets denominated in USDH.
The store openings by Kalshi and Polymarket are not just marketing but also battles to capture user attention.
Wars, political events, elections, and sports competitions are gathering global users online, enabling 24/7 non-stop global betting. Rule disputes, wealth stories, and insider trading are all unfolding simultaneously, with only money and brains never sleeping. Perhaps future hot events like the World Cup and U.S. elections will continue to drive prediction market trading volumes and recognition to new heights.
Before the final outcome is determined, no participant dares to let their guard down.
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