Introduzione
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set for March 15, 2026, and prediction markets on Polymarket are offering insights into potential winners. With over $29 million in total trading volume, the markets indicate "One Battle After Another" is the frontrunner for Best Picture with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of major bettors shows one address holding a significant "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate.
In the Best Actor category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% chance, overtaking Timothée Chalamet (34%), who was the favorite until recently. Key addresses show mixed strategies, with one top bettor on Jordan having a negative historical profit.
The Best Director and Best Actress categories appear to be near-certainties. Paul Thomas Anderson holds a 94% probability for Best Director, and Jessie Buckley has a 97% chance for Best Actress, making them potential "sure bets" or "arbitrage plays."
Other notable categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads Best Cinematography (73%), and "Sinners" is the overwhelming favorite for Best Original Screenplay (96%). The data provides a unique, market-driven perspective on the upcoming Oscars.
Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.
Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will break down the win probability for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume exceeding $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for "One Battle After Another": 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average YES purchase price for "One Battle After Another" at 54.8 cents.
Address Holding ONLY the "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago and currently holds only the single event for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Leads Temporarily with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan leads temporarily with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a 34% probability.
It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability of winning had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, this address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical P&L of negative $200,000.
Top NO Holding Address for Michael B. Jordan: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, this address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical P&L of $172,000.
Top YES Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top YES holding address for Michael B. Jordan, indicating this address is betting on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning Best Actor.
Top NO Holding Address for Timothée Chalamet: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, this address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Leads Temporarily with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson leads temporarily with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Holding Address Analysis
Top YES Holding Address for Paul Thomas Anderson: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, this address has a high win rate of 83.6%, with an average YES purchase price for Paul Thomas Anderson at 93 cents.
Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Leads Temporarily with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley leads temporarily with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet".
Other Popular Awards
Additionally, awards with high discussion热度 include:
一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan leads temporarily with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a 21% probability.
二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a 19% probability; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a 7% probability.
三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" leads temporarily with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a 20% probability.
四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" leads temporarily with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet".
Domande pertinenti
QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 98th Academy Awards?
AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a 76% probability.
QWho is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award, and what was a significant recent shift in the odds for this category?
AMichael B. Jordan is the current favorite to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant recent shift occurred when Timothée Chalamet, who was previously the frontrunner with an 80% probability, dropped to second place.
QWhich two categories are described as nearly having no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans' based on their high probabilities?
AThe Best Director category, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 91% probability, and the Best Actress category, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.
QWhat is the address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' winning Best Picture, and what is their historical win rate?
AThe address of the largest holder of 'YES' shares for 'One Battle After Another' is 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, and their historical win rate is 89.7%.
QIn the Best Supporting Actor category, who is the predicted winner and what is their probability?
AIn the Best Supporting Actor category, Sean Penn is the predicted winner with a 73% probability.
Letture associate
This Week's Key Events Preview | U.S. to Release April CPI Data; U.S. Senate Banking Committee to Review "Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025"
Weekly News Preview: Key events for May 12-16 include major economic and crypto industry developments.
On Tuesday, May 12, the U.S. will release its April CPI data. Additionally, the gaming blockchain Ronin will begin a 10-hour migration to an Ethereum Layer 2, built on OP Stack with EigenDA for data availability. This aims to leverage Ethereum's security and settle RON's annual inflation below 1%.
Base's first independent network upgrade, "Base Azul," is scheduled for mainnet activation on Wednesday, May 13, focusing on security, performance, and developer experience enhancements.
Thursday, May 14, sees the U.S. Senate Banking Committee voting on the "Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025." In other news, Solana DeFi protocol Carrot will shut down, setting a final withdrawal deadline due to impacts from the Drift exploit. The Moscow Exchange will launch futures trading for Solana, Ripple, and Tron indices (RUB-settled) for qualified investors.
Multiple service closures are scheduled for Friday, May 15. Dmail Network will begin winding down due to unsustainable infrastructure costs and failed commercialization. Users must export data before this date. Separately, the Cosmos-based lending blockchain UX Chain will fully shut down.
Finally, on Saturday, May 16, gaming infrastructure provider Lattice will wind down operations, with its Redstone Layer 2 network ceasing. Users are urged to withdraw assets, especially from contracts like Uniswap pools, before the shutdown.
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Crypto ETF Weekly Report | Last Week, U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETFs Saw Net Inflows of $631 Million; U.S. Ethereum Spot ETFs Saw Net Inflows of $70.3 Million
Crypto ETF Weekly Report: US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $631 million last week, bringing total net assets to $106.66 billion. BlackRock's IBIT led inflows with $596 million. US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $70.3 million, with total net assets reaching $13.73 billion, primarily driven by BlackRock's ETHA ($100 million). In Hong Kong, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 15.57 BTC (assets: $320 million), while Ethereum spot ETFs saw no inflows. On the options front, Bitcoin spot ETF options saw a total notional trading volume of $976 million and a put/call ratio of 2.90, indicating heightened short-term trading activity and a bullish sentiment. Additionally, a market report noted Coinbase and Kraken dominate 22% of AI citations in the US crypto sector, with BlackRock's IBIT leading responses to "Bitcoin ETF" queries. Meanwhile, the SEC has delayed its review of the first batch of prediction market ETFs linked to real-world events like election outcomes.
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Morning Post | Trump Media Group Releases Q1 Financial Report; Top Three DeFi Applications Return Nearly $100 Million in Revenue to Token Holders in 30 Days; Michael Saylor Shares Bitcoin Tracker Info Again
**Title: Daily Briefing | Trump Media Group Releases Q1 Report; Top 3 DeFi Apps Return Nearly $100M to Token Holders; Michael Saylor Signals Potential Bitcoin Buy**
**Summary:**
Key developments in the past 24 hours include:
* **Economic Outlook:** Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the next two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, citing persistent inflationary pressures from energy costs. This delayed timeline is expected to tighten liquidity flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
* **DeFi & Revenue:** Data from DefiLlama shows that three leading DeFi applications—Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, and EdgeX—collectively distributed $96.3 million in revenue to their token holders over the last 30 days. This trend highlights a shift in the crypto community's focus towards real protocol earnings and sustainable economic models.
* **Corporate Bitcoin Moves:** Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy (note: referred to as 'Strategy' in the text, likely a typographical error), has signaled potential upcoming Bitcoin purchases by posting a "Bitcoin Tracker" update, following a pattern that typically precedes the company's official disclosure of new acquisitions.
* **Market Integrity:** Prediction market platform Polymarket announced updates to address platform issues, including identifying and banning clusters of accounts involved in "ghost-fill" activities and implementing measures to prevent bulk account creation.
* **Regulation:** The Bank of England Governor warned that stablecoin regulation could lead to tensions between US and international regulators. In South Korea, the National Tax Service has launched a pilot program to entrust seized virtual assets to private custody firms for management.
* **Meme Token Trends:** GMGN data lists the top trending meme tokens on Ethereum (e.g., HEX, SHIB), Solana (e.g., FWOG, TROLL), and Base (e.g., SKITTEN, PEPE) over the past day.
**Financial Note:** Trump Media & Technology Group reported a Q1 loss of approximately $4 billion, primarily attributed to unrealized losses on its Bitcoin and other digital asset holdings.
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Telegram Takes Direct Control of TON, Social Traffic Rewrites the Public Chain Narrative
Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the core driver and largest validator of The Open Network (TON). Key initiatives include a sixfold reduction in transaction fees, performance upgrades, and improved developer tools within the next few weeks. This marks a strategic shift from Telegram merely providing user access to deeply integrating TON into its platform's core infrastructure.
The goal is to transform Telegram's massive social traffic into sustainable on-chain activity. While viral mini-apps like Notcoin have demonstrated Telegram's ability to drive user adoption, TON aims to support frequent, low-value transactions inherent to social platforms—such as tipping, in-app payments, and game rewards. Ultra-low fees and sub-second finality (0.6 seconds) are crucial to making blockchain interactions seamless and nearly invisible within the Telegram user experience.
However, Telegram's increased central role raises questions about network decentralization. Durov argues that Telegram's participation will attract more large validators, thereby enhancing decentralization. TON also offers high annual staking rewards (18.8%), aiming to retain capital within its ecosystem.
The fundamental challenge for TON is no longer leveraging Telegram's user base, but becoming an indispensable, seamless infrastructure layer for Telegram's everyday applications—moving from an adjacent chain to an embedded utility.
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Telegram Takes Direct Control of TON, Social Traffic Reshapes Public Chain Narrative
Telegram's founder, Pavel Durov, has announced a major shift in the development of The Open Network (TON). Telegram will now become the core driver of TON, replacing the TON Foundation and becoming its largest validator. The focus will be on technical upgrades over the next few weeks, including slashing network fees by six times to near-zero and improving finality time to 0.6 seconds.
This move signifies a deeper integration between Telegram and TON, moving beyond just providing a user base. The goal is to transform Telegram's vast social traffic and built-in features—like Mini Apps, payments, and bots—into sustainable, on-chain usage scenarios. The reduced fees and faster speeds are crucial for enabling the small, frequent transactions typical of social interactions.
While this promises stronger execution and product alignment, it raises questions about centralization. Durov argues Telegram's involvement will attract more validators, enhancing decentralization, but the outcome remains to be seen. Additionally, TON's high annual staking reward of 18.8% aims to retain capital within the ecosystem.
The key challenge for TON is no longer just leveraging Telegram's entry point, but becoming an invisible, seamless infrastructure layer within Telegram's daily use. Its success hinges on converting viral attention into lasting, embedded utility.
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