Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
Yesterday, following the重磅 news in January about "plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading," ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), the parent company behind the New York Stock Exchange, unleashed two more "major moves"—first, the launch of seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, with plans to also introduce a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures contract (pending approval) based on the CoinDesk overnight rate; second, the introduction of the Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tool, providing institutional investors with predictive market data, analysis, and other market signals. A series of actions indicate that as the "parent" behind one of the largest U.S. stock exchanges, the NYSE, ICE Group is building its own "new nine-child ecosystem."
In the current context of deep coupling between traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets, ICE Group has transitioned from a behind-the-scenes layout player to a trendsetter.
ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Providing More Choices for the Securities Market
In a previous article, "NYSE Plans to Launch 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, 'Competitors' Stunned," we provided a detailed analysis of the NYSE's ambition to consolidate liquidity from both TradFi and DeFi markets, also listing the pros and cons of market views at that time.
In less than a month since then, the NYSE's parent company, ICE Group, is no longer silent. Instead, it has stepped directly from behind the scenes to the forefront, launching seven CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that are more aligned with crypto-native metrics. These include: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures, all denominated in USD and cash-settled.
It is worth mentioning here that CoinDesk index-related crypto futures contracts offer the following advantages:
- 1. Historical—CoinDesk index metrics have been operational since 2014. Its flagship indices, such as the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX), have long been regarded as foundational industry benchmarks. BlackRock's BTC ETF products, among others, also reference this index. Currently, over $40 billion in assets (such as ETFs and funds) are linked to this index.
- 2. Broad Coverage—The CoinDesk 20 Index covers approximately 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using a market-cap-weighted and capped design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional-grade standards. The total market capitalization of related products exceeds $16 billion. The CoinDesk 5 Index tracks the performance of the five largest components by market cap within the CoinDesk 20 Index, balancing index diversification with the market status of high-cap cryptocurrencies.
- 3. Pioneering—ICE Group has previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products. The transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance needs, helping ICE Group rapidly expand its crypto product line while lowering the learning curve for investment institutions.
Thus, by leveraging CoinDesk indices, ICE has introduced crypto futures contracts into the traditional financial trading market, providing professional institutional investors with more trading choices. This also introduces more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market indirectly—through seven USD-denominated, cash-settled CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify asset portfolio allocations.
Furthermore, the planned "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures" product based on the CoinDesk overnight rate further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.
It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move represents the first time a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi interest rates. This also means that the overnight borrowing annualized rates of on-chain lending protocols have gained recognition from traditional financial markets, making it easier for investors to hedge USDC borrowing costs or lock in yields. Regardless of the product's price performance after launch, this is a historic step. At a time when the crypto market is in a downward cycle, this is tantamount to injecting a fresh wave of blood.
If we compare the traditional financial market to a food market, the launch of CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts is like ICE Group's "vegetable stall" offering more "dishes" to customers; while the launch of the Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tool is akin to ICE Group providing "price impact metrics" to "shoppers" (Odaily Planet Daily Note: i.e., professional investment institutions and investors) to help them make effective decisions on "which dish to buy."
ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool: An "Information Gold Shovel" for Investors
Last September, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. At that time, the prediction market was on the eve of a trading volume explosion, with the industry's monthly trading volume still hovering around $5 billion. However, with the overall downturn in the crypto market, the successive emergence of predictive events, and strong enthusiasm from capital institutions, the trading volume of the entire prediction market track began to surge in the fourth quarter of last year—monthly trading volumes broke new highs one after another, quickly exceeding $13 billion in November, a more than fourfold increase compared to the same period during the 2024 U.S. presidential election year.
Since then, Polymarket, touted as "the world's largest prediction market platform," has seen a new wave of growth in its valuation, platform trading volume, and user numbers. Compared to traditional channels like polls and data research institutions, prediction markets offer more intuitive and collective wisdom-based information indicators, garnering increasing attention.
To some extent, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket are the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group recognized this decision-support value.
As Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan stated: "Prediction markets reflect near-real-time collective expectations of market-driving events and have become a reliable source of information input beyond traditional data sources."
Similarly, let's use two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this tool.
1. Betting events on Polymarket such as "the timing and manner of a U.S. attack on Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders, hedge funds, etc. If the likelihood of such an event suddenly increases with rapidly rising trading volume, it often indicates tensions in certain regions, and prices of energy sources like oil are likely to surge. Institutional investors can use this to open positions early for profit, or buy safe-haven assets and sell risk assets.
2. Various weather and climate betting events on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to judge the yield and price trends of大宗agricultural products like corn and soybeans, as well as the rise and fall of related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on the prediction market platform can directly help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before weather events actually affect supply chains/prices, avoiding asset damage due to concentrated holdings of high-risk stocks.
In other words, the various betting events in prediction markets can identify abnormal factors one step ahead, thereby concretizing the potential impact of related assets.
It is worth mentioning that Polymarket's data is not the only source provided by ICE Group to institutional investors; previous sources also included data from Reddit and Dow Jones. Cross-verification from multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
By leveraging this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group has essentially opened a "window of probability to see the future in advance" for institutional investors.
Summary: ICE Group is Building Its Own "Crypto Territory"
Last September, the U.S. SEC's Crypto Special Task Force held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group on cryptocurrency regulatory matters, covering crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group had successively collaborated with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration, and on-chain data for foreign exchange and precious metals.
Based on available information, in the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is striding into the "crypto finance era," assembling its own "crypto territory" through investments, collaborations, and expanding trading标的.
