"Macro environment marginally improves, but technical structure and capital flows still point to a weak pattern"
After experiencing a sharp pullback, Bitcoin's price has fallen to a key downward target range. From a macro perspective, the improvement in US growth indicators, stronger fiscal momentum, and a mild weakening of the US dollar should, in theory, support risk assets. However, judging from the actual market performance, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable confirmation signal for a reversal. The market is still caught in a tug-of-war between "macro improvement" and "insufficient technical repair."
Changes in the technical structure are particularly crucial. The important trend level previously used to distinguish between a "phase rebound" and a "structural decline" has been broken and lost, with the former support zone turning into overhead resistance. In the absence of a compelling new narrative or clear catalyst, the recent recovery should be viewed more as a corrective rebound after a decline, rather than a shift in trend or structure.
Key Trend Level Breached: Rebound Still a Corrective Recovery
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade below the 21-week moving average. Until it recovers and stabilizes above this moving average, short-term rebounds are unlikely to be seen as a confirmed signal of a trend reversal. Historical experience shows that when both medium and long-term moving average support structures are broken, the market is more prone to enter a prolonged phase of continued weakness.
The current price structure shares similarities with the previous cycle: after forming a阶段性高点 (stage high), it experienced a short period of sideways consolidation but failed to sustain, then entered the next leg down. In terms of rhythm, even if macro conditions improve, prices may not bottom immediately and often undergo a further decline or weak consolidation, with the center of gravity shifting lower.
Crowded Positioning: ETF Funds More Likely to Turn into Overhead Pressure
Constraints from the capital structure cannot be ignored either. After Bitcoin entered a phase of sharp decline, ETF holdings did not decrease significantly along with the price. Since early 2025, ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of approximately $20 billion, even as the price trend has significantly weakened during the same period.
According to estimates, since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, investors have purchased approximately $54.3 billion worth of Bitcoin through the ETF channel, with an average purchase cost of around $90,000 per coin. At the current price level, the corresponding unrealized loss has reached the scale of tens of billions of US dollars. When a large amount of capital is in a floating loss position, in the absence of a new narrative or incremental buying to take over, this存量 (stock) is more likely to turn into overhead supply during a rebound rather than form effective support.
In summary, although the marginal improvement in the macro environment provides some external conditions for risk assets, against the backdrop of an unrepaired technical structure, crowded positioning, and weakening participation, macro positives are difficult to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term. Bitcoin currently appears to be in the top area of the late cycle, where selling pressure during rebounds may still outweigh the absorption by new funds.
Until the trend is clearly reversed, strategies should remain restrained. If attempting tactical participation, it must be premised on stricter stop-loss and position discipline. Judging solely from the current structure, $73,000 is unlikely to be the final bottom of this Bitcoin cycle.
Some of the above views are from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
