As the market disturbances of late 2025 gradually recede, the crypto market has welcomed a positive recovery trend in the first week of 2026. Both BTC and ETH recorded considerable gains, with market sentiment and on-chain structure showing signs of recovery from the year-end pressure. This article will analyze the current market phase by combining the macro background, on-chain data, and derivatives market structure.
On the macro level, the core logic of market trading remains the shift in global liquidity expectations. The Federal Reserve continued its interest rate cut path in 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75% by year-end. The sustained cooling of inflation and the job market provides room for further monetary policy easing in 2026.
Although geopolitical events (such as the situation in Venezuela) triggered brief risk-off sentiment at the beginning of the year, the market quickly digested them as short-term emotional disturbances and did not constitute a driver for a trend reversal. Overall, the relatively mild macro policy outlook has created favorable external conditions for the crypto market's recovery.
Market Performance: Tax-Loss Selling Pressure Subsides, Capital Inflow Drives Price Recovery
In the first week of the year, BTC and ETH showed a clear recovery-driven upward trend. BTC rebounded from around 88,000 USDT to above 92,000 USDT, with a year-to-date return of approximately +5%; ETH rose by about +6% over the same period. This movement is the result of the superposition of three forces:
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End of Holidays: Trading activity returns to normal, and market liquidity recovers.
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Tax-Loss Selling Pressure Subsides: The concentrated year-end selling pressure from U.S. investors realizing capital gains tax losses, which was released in December, significantly weakened at the beginning of the new year. Historical data shows that the market often rebounds after such selling pressure ends.
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Capital Inflow: New allocation funds and buying interest from the Asian time zone actively entered the market, absorbing the year-end selling pressure and driving prices upward from the post-pullback consolidation range.
On-Chain Insights: Signs of Supply Tightening and Capital Inflow
Changes in on-chain data provide micro-level evidence for the market's stabilization and recovery: Continued Decline in Exchange Balances: BTC and ETH continue to experience net outflows from centralized exchanges, tightening the supply of chips available for immediate trading in circulation and reducing potential concentrated selling pressure; Stablecoin Supply Rebounds: The total market capitalization of major stablecoins has resumed an upward trajectory, indicating that the "ammunition" available on the market for purchasing crypto assets is more sufficient, providing liquidity support for the market; On-Chain Activity Warms Up: The daily active address count on the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks has rebounded at the beginning of the year, reflecting a gradual recovery in user participation and market sentiment.
Derivatives Signals: Sentiment Shifts from Defense to Tentative Offense
Changes in the derivatives market structure clearly reveal the shift in market sentiment: Implied Volatility (IV) at Low Levels: Short-term option IV has fallen to near two-year lows, indicating low market expectations for extreme volatility in the near term and a trend towards stable sentiment; Skew Structure Significantly Repaired: The 25Δ skew in the options market has rapidly converged, with BTC's skew turning from negative to positive. This means that the demand for downside protection (put option premium) has weakened, while the demand for chasing upside (call option premium) has begun to heat up, shifting market sentiment from defensive to bullish; Open Interest (OI) Concentrated Distribution: A large number of option open interest positions are concentrated around key price levels near the current spot price (such as the $90,000 and $100,000 regions for BTC), which will become important psychological and technical battle axes in the short term.
Product Strategy: Adapting to the Market Phase, Optimizing Risk and Return
Combined with the current market characteristics of "recovery consolidation, direction pending," investors can choose suitable structured product tools based on their own views.
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Expecting Consolidation: If expecting the market to continue range-bound consolidation, consider strategies like FCN/Dual Currency, which "sell volatility" to obtain fixed coupons within a specific price range, suitable for phases where volatility is falling from highs.
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Bullish on Buying Dips: If long-term bullish but unwilling to chase highs, discounted Accumulator allows for automatic分批 buying at preset lower levels, with knock-out conditions to control upside risk, suitable for分批布局.
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Bullish or Hedging: Holding spot and希望 to take profit in batches above, or needing to hedge short-term risks, consider Decumulator/covered call writing, the former can automatically sell in batches, the latter can enhance spot returns and partially lock in the selling price.
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Need Liquidity: If financing is needed but unwilling to bear margin call risk, non-recourse financing can provide low-interest liquidity without margin call risk, suitable for long-term holders.
In summary, the current market is in a recovery phase following the year-end pullback. Improved macro liquidity expectations, tightening micro on-chain supply, and warming derivatives market sentiment together constitute a偏多 market structure. However, prices have rebounded near key resistance areas. Whether the market can start a new trend仍需观察 the effective breakthrough of the important resistance levels above.
The above content is all from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management. This article only represents the author's personal views.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
