Major Coins Plummet + Speculative Coins Dance Wildly, ETH Breaks Below 3000, XRP Crashes to 1.9, RATS Buying Opportunity + MERL Shorting Opportunity Both Emerge

金色财经Pubblicato 2025-12-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-12-16

Introduzione

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a sharp divergence. Major coins like ETH and XRP are declining sharply, while some altcoins show volatile, mixed performances. ETH dropped over 5%, breaking below the key $3,000 support and falling to around $2,916. It faces resistance at $2,980, $3,050, and $3,080. If the downtrend continues, support levels to watch are $2,950, $2,920, $2,880, and $2,800. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI suggest bearish momentum remains. XRP broke below $1.95, with its price falling to around $1.855. Key resistance levels are at $1.90, $1.92, and $1.95. If it fails to rebound, further decline toward $1.82 or even $1.765 is possible. In contrast, RATS shows strength with three consecutive bullish daily candles, forming a W-pattern. A pullback to around $0.000035 may present a buying opportunity, with a potential rise toward $0.00005. MERL surged 17%, possibly due to low-liquidity manipulation. A short position around $0.46-$0.48 is suggested, with downside targets at $0.40 or even $0.35. ASTER dipped to $0.765 but quickly recovered. It may be forming a descending wedge—wait for a clearer bottom signal before entering. FOLKS shows a pump-and-dump pattern, with a gradual decline after a sharp rise. A low-leverage long-term short position could be profitable. Overall, major coins like ETH and XRP remain bearish short-term. RATS offers a potential long opportunity on dips, while MERL and FOLKS may be suited for short strategies. ASTER require...

The crypto space is experiencing "polar opposites" again! ETH and XRP are diving along with Bitcoin, while some altcoins are surging wildly and others are setting traps. Let's break it down one by one to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities~Free group access +Q:3260353596

? ETH: Drops 5%, Breaks Below 3000! $2920 Becomes the Lifeline

Ethereum really couldn't hold up this time. After failing to defend $3150, it plunged straight down, breaking through the $3120, $3050, and $3000 support levels, hitting a low of $2916. It's now hovering below $3000 and has fallen below the 100-hour moving average. The bearish momentum is strong.

Want a rebound? It must first break through 3 hurdles:

First hurdle: $2980, any minor rise might face resistance here;

Second hurdle: $3050 (the 50% retracement level of the previous decline);

The tough one is $3080. Only a break above this could target $3120 and $3175.

If the rebound fails, watch these support levels closely: $2950→$2920→$2880→$2800. If $2920 doesn't hold, a deeper decline is highly probable. Technical indicators are also weak: MACD is strengthening in the bearish zone, RSI is below 50, and the downward momentum hasn't stopped.

? XRP: Crashes Through 1.95! $1.85 Hangs by a Thread

XRP just attempted a rebound at $2.02 but was immediately beaten back down, breaking below $2.00 and $1.95, hitting a low of $1.855. It now can't even hold $1.90 or the 100-hour moving average. A bearish trendline has formed on the hourly chart, with resistance pressing down at $1.980.

Key levels for a rebound are: $1.90→$1.92→$1.95. Only by stabilizing above $1.92 is there hope to charge towards $1.98 and $2.05. If it can't break above $1.90, watch the support level at $1.855 closely. A break below that targets $1.82 and $1.765. MACD is accelerating in the bearish zone, RSI is below 50, short-term bias remains bearish.Free group access +Q:3260353596

? RATS: 3 Consecutive Green Candles, Strong Rise! Buy Opportunity Around 0.000035

Contrary to the major coins, RATS has been strengthening against the trend recently, with 3 consecutive green daily candles and a W-bottom pattern forming. MACD is above the zero axis, and momentum is increasing. It's highly likely to fill the upper wick next and challenge the resistance around $0.00005.

Trading suggestion: On a short-term pullback to around $0.000035, those who like trading swings can buy spot with a small position. Take profit near $0.00005. Good risk-reward ratio~Free group access +Q:3260353596

⚠️ MERL: Hard Pump of 17% Luring Bulls! Short on Rallies at 0.46-0.48

MERL's move is too obvious – a 17% pump in 24 hours to $0.48, now struggling around $0.46-$0.47. This is purely the whales pumping in a low liquidity window to trap bulls.

I'm bearish! The likely script is "expected selling pressure → slow grinding bottom → panic dump". I suggest shorting on rallies near $0.46-$0.48 directly. Don't wait for the whales to paint a big green candle to lure the last batch of bulls. Short-term target first at $0.4, a drop to $0.35 is also possible.Free group access +Q:3260353596

? ASTER: Wicked Down to 0.765 and Recovered! Wait for Buying Opportunity

ASTER wicked down to $0.765 and immediately recovered,正好踩在 0.618 Fib level (though opening wicks have limited reference value). It now looks like it might be forming a falling wedge. Need to observe if the base is stable.

Those not in yet, don't rush. No need to chase the high. Wait to buy near the bottom before acting. Adjust strategy随时 as needed to avoid getting trapped by wicks.

? FOLKS: Pump then Grind Down! Low Leverage Long-term Short Opportunity

FOLKS is truly "heaven one moment, hell the next". After a sharp pump, it started grinding down relentlessly. Many new contract coins play this trick.

Trading suggestion: After the top appears, you can go short with low leverage for the long term. If you can hold, the returns could be high! Once this grinding downtrend forms, it's hard to reverse短期内. Don't worry about missing out.Free group access +Q:3260353596

Summary: ETH, XRP are short-term bearish, watch key support levels and don't blindly buy the dip; RATS can be bought on pullbacks, MERL is a suggested short, ASTER watch and wait, FOLKS suitable for low leverage long shorts. The crypto space is severely fragmented right now. Don't be greedy, focus on 1-2 targets~

Crypto di tendenza

Domande pertinenti

QWhat are the key resistance levels for ETH to watch for a potential rebound according to the article?

AThe key resistance levels for ETH are $2980 (first level), $3050 (50% retracement of the previous decline), and $3080. A break above $3080 could push the price toward $3120 and $3175.

QWhy does the article suggest a short opportunity for MERL around $0.46-$0.48?

AThe article suggests shorting MERL because it believes the 17% pump to $0.48 was a low-liquidity manipulation by whales to lure in buyers, and it expects a pattern of 'expected selling pressure → slow grinding bottom → panic sell-off' to follow.

QWhat pattern did RATS form that indicates a potential rise to $0.00005?

ARATS formed a 'W-bottom' pattern on the daily chart and showed three consecutive bullish candles, with the MACD moving above the zero axis, indicating strong momentum and a potential rise to the $0.00005 resistance level.

QWhat is the critical support level for XRP that, if broken, could lead to further decline?

AThe critical support level for XRP is $1.855. If this level is broken, the price could fall further toward $1.82 and then $1.765.

QWhat trading strategy does the article recommend for FOLKS after its pump and subsequent decline?

AThe article recommends a low-leverage, long-term short position for FOLKS after its pump, as it believes the consistent downtrend is unlikely to reverse quickly, making it a high-potential profit opportunity for patient traders.

Letture associate

Must-Watch Events Next Week|CLARITY Act Could Face Senate Vote; SpaceX, Circle to Report Earnings (8.3-8.9)

**Summary: Key Events and Developments to Watch (August 3-9)** The upcoming week is marked by significant financial disclosures, key legislative deadlines, and notable product updates. **Major Financial Events:** Several companies are scheduled to release their Q2 2026 earnings. American Bitcoin (ABTC) will report on August 3, followed by SpaceX and Hut 8 Mining Corp. on August 4, and Circle on August 5. Notably, a significant portion of SpaceX shares (up to 12% of total shares) will be unlocked on August 6 following their earnings release. **Key Legislative Deadline:** The U.S. Senate faces an August 7 deadline to secure 60 votes for the CLARITY Act, a bipartisan bill aiming to establish a federal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The Senate may hold a full vote on the bill during the week. **Economic Data:** The U.S. July Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released on August 7, providing crucial labor market data. **Technology & Product Updates:** * **Shutdowns:** DeFi portfolio tracker Zapper and wallet app Ctrl Wallet will cease operations on August 3. * **Upgrades:** LayerZero will deprecate its v1 relayers on August 3. XRP Ledger's new version 3.3.0, featuring five new functions, is expected next week. * **AI:** Elon Musk announced that the advanced Grok 4.6 AI model is set for release around August 7. * **Bitcoin:** The BIP-110 forced signaling for a potential Bitcoin network change is scheduled to begin around August 8. **Other Notable Events:** Chinese robotics firm Unitree Tech has set its preliminary price inquiry for its IPO for August 5. South Korean exchange Upbit will delist AQT and AERGO tokens on August 3.

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Stocks Are Plummeting More Sharply Than Cryptocurrencies. Where Has the Money Gone?

Stock Markets Plunge Deeper Than Cryptocurrencies: Where Did the Money Go? In late July, Seoul's Kospi index triggered circuit breakers for two consecutive days, plummeting over 40% from its June high. The collapse was led by heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix, whose record profits still disappointed investors, and devastating leveraged ETFs, with one major product losing over 83% of its value. This signaled a global, forced deleveraging targeting the most crowded trades. Interestingly, while stocks exhibited extreme volatility akin to crypto markets, Bitcoin rose nearly 15% in July after a prior steep drop. Analysis shows the money fleeing equities did not flow into Bitcoin. Instead, Bitcoin had already absorbed its sell-off in May-June, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw historic outflows. The true safe-haven beneficiary was gold, whose price rose over 20% year-on-year, highlighting a decoupling between Bitcoin and gold as "digital gold." The sell-off was a targeted unwinding of leveraged positions in tech and semiconductors, accelerated by broker-dealer risk management and shifts in the AI narrative, including new competition from Chinese memory chipmakers. The retreat path was clear: from high-valuation tech stocks to cash and U.S. Treasuries, then to gold. For Bitcoin to attract sustained institutional inflows, conditions like eased global liquidity pressure, a "soft-landing" Fed rate cut, and U.S. regulatory clarity via legislation like the stalled CLARITY Act are needed. Currently, Bitcoin is not a safe haven but an already-cleared asset. Its low correlation with tech stocks, however, makes it a potential diversification play for institutional portfolios once the storm passes. The money isn't here yet, but the positioning is underway.

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In Conversation with Ray Dalio: We Are Currently in an AI Bubble, with 1% of My Portfolio in Bitcoin

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns in an interview that the current AI boom shows classic bubble characteristics, which could lead to significant economic downturns as seen in past cycles like 1929 or 2000. He explains that speculative enthusiasm, fueled by debt and overvaluation, often precedes a crash when rising rates or taxation force asset sales, causing widespread losses and recession. Dalio also outlines his "Big Cycle" theory, describing an approximate 80-year pattern where widening wealth gaps, massive government deficits, and shifting geopolitical power (like China's rise) create internal conflict and global instability. He emphasizes that we are in a late-cycle, transitional phase where traditional powers like the US and UK face decline. For personal wealth protection, Dalio advises diversification beyond cash into assets like stocks, bonds, real estate, and particularly gold, which he prefers over Bitcoin. While he holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin as a non-printable hard asset, he views gold as more secure from technological or governmental threats. Regarding AI's impact, Dalio believes it will disproportionately benefit capital owners, worsening inequality by replacing both physical and cognitive labor. He suggests that human intuition and emotional intelligence, combined with AI, will be key for future workers. On taxation, Dalio argues that wealth taxes are impractical and risk triggering asset sell-offs, reducing productive investment. He points to the UK as a cautionary example of debt, low productivity, and political strife. Geopolitically, Dalio foresees a more regionalized world, with the US showing weakness in prolonged conflicts like with Iran, akin to past imperial declines. The ideal outcome, he suggests, is coexisting powerful blocs (e.g., Americas, China-Asia Pacific) without major war.

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Daily 7.2 Trillion KRW: Foreign Capital's Record Net Buying on Friday! Wall Street Says Headwinds for Korean Stock Fund Flows Have Subsided

South Korean stock market sees a dramatic shift in fund flows. On July 31, foreign investors made a record net purchase of approximately KRW 7.2 trillion in KOSPI stocks, marking a fundamental reversal from the persistent large-scale net outflows seen in previous months. This contributed to a significant narrowing of foreign net selling in July to KRW 9.8 trillion, down sharply from KRW 48.4 trillion in June and KRW 44.5 trillion in May. Simultaneously, domestic institutional pressure eased. South Korean pension funds and asset managers turned to a net buying position in July, purchasing KRW 1.0 trillion worth of KOSPI shares, contrasting with net sales in May and June. Market volatility is expected to be dampened by new financial regulations. Effective July 31, the Financial Services Commission tightened access for retail investors to single-stock leveraged ETFs by raising the minimum cash deposit requirement. Trading volumes for these products subsequently dropped to about 50% of their monthly average. Citigroup Research maintains its year-end KOSPI target of 10,000 points. The firm cites several supportive factors: the substantial easing of headwinds from capital outflows, a robust fundamental outlook for the semiconductor sector, historically low market valuations, strong economic fundamentals, and the potential for policy support from financial authorities if needed.

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317 Totale visualizzazioniPubblicato il 2024.12.12Aggiornato il 2026.06.02

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